cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on Apr 30, 2024 19:53:21 GMT
There is a poll circulating which claims Labour are ahead by 20%.
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 30, 2024 20:35:37 GMT
How credible are Labour Together as a pollster ? Not really seen much of their work
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 30, 2024 21:08:47 GMT
It appears to be based on 23% of respondents saying they won't vote and 22% probably won't. Needless to say, there isn't going to be a turnout of 55%.
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davidh
Forum Regular
Posts: 31
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Post by davidh on May 1, 2024 10:45:31 GMT
It appears to be based on 23% of respondents saying they won't vote and 22% probably won't. Needless to say, there isn't going to be a turnout of 55%. Most polls over-report the expected turnout based off 'likelihood to vote' returns, either because people over-estimate their own likelihood or because of politically-engaged people being more likely to respond (also, double-registering of students and the like means that a 100% turnout is often impossible, even if everyone did actually vote - so reported turnouts are slightly below the reality). Even the Scottish Indy referendum in 2014, which had the highest turnout of any vote for decades, was routinely predicted to have turnout over 90% off those figures; it wasn't. I think there are more legitimate reasons to exercise some scepticism on the findings. Obviously, the pollster's lack of record is an issue, particularly on a local election where modelling could be difficult. Their ideological position doesn't help but isn't something I'd necessarily hold against them: no-one deliberately destroys their future credibility for a possible one-off minor boost to their cause - especially when there'll be a general election within months. But the disparity between the male / female returns is doubtful, the huge over-representation of York residents (more than the rest of N Yorks) is unhelpful, and the (presumed) typo for the Remain size sample is careless at best. That said, the overall result isn't that far out of line with national polling or the Selby by-election; I'd regard it as sufficiently plausible to assume Labour is leading.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,722
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 3, 2024 11:12:39 GMT
Turnout about 30%. Gut feeling is if Lab doesn't win it will be tight.
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Post by bungle on May 3, 2024 13:34:39 GMT
Labour have won
Lab 66,761 Con 51,967 LD 30,867 Grn 15,188 Ind Tordoff 13,250 Ind Haslam 12,370
Well, the foot of our stairs I am going forthwith
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 770
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Post by yorkshireluke on May 3, 2024 13:47:22 GMT
Probably the shock of the night (if we consider this weekend the night). I never would have imagined a non-Conservative Mayor of North Yorkshire before now.
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Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 13:47:23 GMT
Gobsmacking.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 3, 2024 13:51:17 GMT
Not even close. We've gone full on US where you can get a GOP governor elected in somewhere like Massachussets and a Democrat in Kansas on the same night
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on May 3, 2024 13:51:40 GMT
Labour have won Lab 66,761 Con 51,967 LD 30,867 Grn 15,188 Ind Tordoff 13,250 Ind Haslam 12,370 Well, the foot of our stairs I am going forthwith I assume most of that 15k margin has come from York and more than the rest from Scarborough. But that is a catastrophic result for the Tories
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Post by agbutler on May 3, 2024 13:56:04 GMT
Probably the shock of the night (if we consider this weekend the night). I never would have imagined a non-Conservative Mayor of North Yorkshire before now. Seemed very clear to me that Labour were winning in the last week or so, cycled past Labour getting the vote out in Riccall yesterday, only seen Labour posters in York but also the surrounds, eg Naburn, Selby, Riccall, Escrick even
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Post by michaelarden on May 3, 2024 13:59:44 GMT
Not quite sure why people are surprised. Labour are likely to have won the two York seats, Selby and Scarborough and Whitby. The Lib Dems Harrogate with the Tories the remaining three. And I suspect that is how the general election will end up (or whatever the new seats are).
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
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Post by weld on May 3, 2024 14:00:14 GMT
The kind of sprawling area where an indie could do well. That said, based on the Selby result, Labour could win this by running it up in York, Scarborough, Whitby, Tadcaster etc and hoping farmers stay home because of issues with the lack of CAP money and labour shortages post-Brexit. I thought Labour had a chance here after the big Selby & Ainsty swing, but this is still an impressive showing.
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bsjmcr
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,396
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Post by bsjmcr on May 3, 2024 14:21:52 GMT
Labour have won Lab 66,761 Con 51,967 LD 30,867 Grn 15,188 Ind Tordoff 13,250 Ind Haslam 12,370 Well, the foot of our stairs I am going forthwith I assume most of that 15k margin has come from York and more than the rest from Scarborough. But that is a catastrophic result for the Tories We need a district/ward breakdown! Otherwise it will just be dismissed as ‘York Mayor’ which would be less surprising (with York easily outweighing the rural county). Plus the ticker headline thus far (and inevitably the No 10 spin machine) is eternally focussed on holding Tees Valley… still a more surprising area. So as cataclysmic as this might be, not sure if it’ll get the attention it deserves.
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yorkshireluke
Lib Dem
I run @polmapsinfoUK, @YorkshireElects and /r/PoliticalMaps/
Posts: 770
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Post by yorkshireluke on May 3, 2024 14:35:48 GMT
I assume most of that 15k margin has come from York and more than the rest from Scarborough. But that is a catastrophic result for the Tories We need a district/ward breakdown! Otherwise it will just be dismissed as ‘York Mayor’ which would be less surprising (with York easily outweighing the rural county). Plus the ticker headline thus far (and inevitably the No 10 spin machine) is eternally focussed on holding Tees Valley… still a more surprising area. So as cataclysmic as this might be, not sure if it’ll get the attention it deserves. North Yorkshire (the council) has a pop of roughly 600k compared to York's 200k.
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Post by stb12 on May 3, 2024 14:41:53 GMT
Any rough figures from what would cover Sunak’s seat?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 15:32:03 GMT
Any rough figures from what would cover Sunak’s seat? York City Council have got the results for York alone (Labour lead of about 18,000) and from those you can work out the results for NYCC alone. Don't think there's any breakdown at the old district level, but given that the Tories will have had a small lead in North Yorkshire, I would think they will have comfortably carried Sunak's seat.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,722
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 3, 2024 15:35:44 GMT
I've just finished typing up my spreadsheet as the full results were announced. Well, I'll take it back - he romped home, which is just what my spreadsheet tells me: prediction LAB win over CON by 10%. Turnout close to spot on 30%, which is what it felt at lunchtime yesterday.
I'm tallying up the area by area votes now, fiddly as I have to track them down on each website, and NYC's is hard to navigate.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,722
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 3, 2024 15:53:23 GMT
I'm going to put the kettle on. Published figures so far are: York: lab:54% con:15% ldm:12% grn:8% NYC: lab:29% con:31% ldm:17% grn:8% of which: S&W: lab:43% con:31% ldm:7% grn:7% T&M todo H&K todo Rich todo Skip todo Selb todo
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Post by johnloony on May 3, 2024 21:41:12 GMT
I don’t know anything about the candidates or issues in this specifically, but I guesss that most of the votes for the two Independent candidates might be “usually“ Conservative
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