jamie
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Post by jamie on Apr 28, 2024 11:20:16 GMT
It’s illuminating that More in Common are heavily downplaying Driscoll in the analysis, saying he’s not very well known and is heavily reliant on differential turnout. His campaign is overwhelmingly social/mainstream media, with no real ground game as far as I can see. According to the poll he’s basically picking up the NOTA vote by default, but I don’t see much reason for it to all coalesce around him in practice. what's he spending 150k on then? Social media it seems.
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 28, 2024 11:33:23 GMT
what's he spending 150k on then? Social media it seems. it doesn't cost that much. I imagine he's probably spending 10k a month on socials
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 28, 2024 12:14:56 GMT
I would be very surprised if turnout is anywhere near 40%. Again, it's unfortunate that the only firms who are polling these odd elections are not especially good ones.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 28, 2024 12:21:12 GMT
The turnout weighting heavily skews the results - on raw responses McGuinness is well ahead. There's also no regional subweighting, which is probably significant since Driscoll is better known north of the Tyne than south of it. So I'm slightly more suspicious of this than I am of mayoral polling in general.
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 28, 2024 12:30:40 GMT
The turnout weighting heavily skews the results - on raw responses McGuinness is well ahead. There's also no regional subweighting, which is probably significant since Driscoll is better known north of the Tyne than south of it. So I'm slightly more suspicious of this than I am of mayoral polling in general. people who don't actually vote are saying they vote labour? Never!
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 28, 2024 12:31:29 GMT
I would be very surprised if turnout is anywhere near 40%. Again, it's unfortunate that the only firms who are polling these odd elections are not especially good ones. it would seem high for some parts of the north east but I wouldn't be surprised if there were parts that reached 40%
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,371
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 28, 2024 14:05:52 GMT
The turnout weighting heavily skews the results - on raw responses McGuinness is well ahead. There's also no regional subweighting, which is probably significant since Driscoll is better known north of the Tyne than south of it. So I'm slightly more suspicious of this than I am of mayoral polling in general. Wasting five minutes of my Sunday to check the detailed tables, and I notice that there's no SES weighting of any kind at all, and that combination is certainly curious. True of their polls for the other contests as well. I'm not sure quite what they're actually measuring.
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Post by tyneguy on Apr 28, 2024 19:31:37 GMT
Turnout will almost certainly be higher in authorities that will be holding their own elections. Here's the breakdown by LA in the North of Tyne CA election in 2019:
Northumberland - 27.1% Newcastle - 37.1% North Tyneside - 35.1%
Northumberland was the only one of the three that did not have council elections that year. They, along with Durham, do not have them this year either - so would expect similar figures, perhaps a bit higher. Newcastle and North Tyneside's turnout is typically within that 35-37% range. They could breach 40% at a push - but I'm sceptical.
For reference, here are the turnout figures for the other south of Tyne authorities in their elections last year (excluding Durham of course) - nothing breaching 35%, which is the norm here:
Gateshead - 34.2% South Tyneside - 31.2% Sunderland - 31.4%
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 28, 2024 19:39:02 GMT
Which equates, very roughly, to the following number of votes from each district:
Northumberland: 70k North Tyneside: 60k Newcastle: 75k Gateshead: 50k South Tyneside: 40k Sunderland: 70k County Durham: 110k
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Post by edgbaston on May 3, 2024 5:15:19 GMT
Independents seem to be doing OK in the declarations so far in the council elections
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 11:54:03 GMT
Durham
Big lead for Labour
Kim McGuinness (Labour) - 43,084 Jamie Driscoll (Independent) - 25,074 Guy Renner-Thompson (Conservative) - 11,627 Paul Donaghy (Reform) - 9,679 Aidan King (Lib Dem) - 3,907 Andrew Gray (Green) - 2,396
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Post by tyneguy on May 3, 2024 12:46:33 GMT
Northumberland
Kim McGuinness (Labour) - 27992 Jamie Driscoll (Independent) - 22736 Guy Renner-Thompson (Conservative) - 14289 Paul Donaghy (Reform) - 4437 Aidan King (Lib Dem) - 2587 Andrew Gray (Green) - 1638
Full result is imminent.
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 12:47:22 GMT
Northumberland
Labour 27992 (38%) Driscoll 22736 (31%) Con 14289 (19%) Etc
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 12:50:17 GMT
Sunderland Kim McGuinness (Labour) - 27,469 Paul Donaghy (Reform) - 11,563 Jamie Driscoll (Independent) - 11,009 Guy Renner-Thompson (Conservative) - 7,037 Aidan King (Lib Dem) - 4,727 Andrew Gray (Green) - 1,801
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right
Conservative
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Post by right on May 3, 2024 12:52:12 GMT
Sunderland Kim McGuinness (Labour) - 27,469 Paul Donaghy (Reform) - 11,563 Jamie Driscoll (Independent) - 11,009 Guy Renner-Thompson (Conservative) - 7,037 Aidan King (Lib Dem) - 4,727 Andrew Gray (Green) - 1,801 That's a strong showing for Reform compared to the other counts. Is the candidate from Sunderland?
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 12:55:38 GMT
Sunderland Kim McGuinness (Labour) - 27,469 Paul Donaghy (Reform) - 11,563 Jamie Driscoll (Independent) - 11,009 Guy Renner-Thompson (Conservative) - 7,037 Aidan King (Lib Dem) - 4,727 Andrew Gray (Green) - 1,801 That's a strong showing for Reform compared to the other counts. Is the candidate from Sunderland? He was a Cllr in Washington South. He lost his seat yesterday
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 13:21:59 GMT
Complete result
Kim McGuinness (LAB) – 185,051 (41.3%)
Jamie Driscoll (IND) – 126,652 (28.2%)
Guy Renner-Thompson (CON) – 52,446
North East Mayoral Election Paul Donaghy (REF) – 41,147
Aidan King (LD) – 25,485
Andrew Gray (G) – 17,631
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cogload
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I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 13:41:20 GMT
2nd saved deposit....we're so back baby! 😬😆
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andrea
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 13:42:40 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 13:53:39 GMT
Much less of a divide in Driscoll support than I'd have expected between the areas he represented and those that he didn't.
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