Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,565
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 29, 2024 20:36:34 GMT
PIP seems to have been unusually successful for a localist party in a major city. Sooner or later they will crash and burn though - how long do you think it will take? They're effectively populist Pompey nationalists, feeding from much of the same pool that elected UKIP in 2014 (and indeed some of the personnel are veterans of UKIP from that time, no-one who was elected though). The glue that holds them together is their leader though. I think it's really up to him how long they stick around. NB If they do it may be an even longer road back for the Tories on the council though, their brand has significant strength in national Conservative voting areas as opposed to the areas in the south of the city that are demographically leaving the Tories behind.
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Post by PoliticoP on Apr 30, 2024 17:30:57 GMT
PIP seems to have been unusually successful for a localist party in a major city. Sooner or later they will crash and burn though - how long do you think it will take? They're effectively populist Pompey nationalists, feeding from much of the same pool that elected UKIP in 2014 (and indeed some of the personnel are veterans of UKIP from that time, no-one who was elected though). The glue that holds them together is their leader though. I think it's really up to him how long they stick around. NB If they do it may be an even longer road back for the Tories on the council though, their brand has significant strength in national Conservative voting areas as opposed to the areas in the south of the city that are demographically leaving the Tories behind. Sounds like the Tory campaign locally has been a disaster.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,565
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 30, 2024 18:30:40 GMT
They're effectively populist Pompey nationalists, feeding from much of the same pool that elected UKIP in 2014 (and indeed some of the personnel are veterans of UKIP from that time, no-one who was elected though). The glue that holds them together is their leader though. I think it's really up to him how long they stick around. NB If they do it may be an even longer road back for the Tories on the council though, their brand has significant strength in national Conservative voting areas as opposed to the areas in the south of the city that are demographically leaving the Tories behind. Sounds like the Tory campaign locally has been a disaster. There's been a Tory campaign?!
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Post by PoliticoP on Apr 30, 2024 18:47:15 GMT
Sounds like the Tory campaign locally has been a disaster. There's been a Tory campaign?! Well. That’s the point. They seem like they are waiting for impending wipeout. They must have no activists on the ground and no leadership either.
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Post by jakegb on Apr 30, 2024 18:59:09 GMT
I have not seen a single blue poster on the island (Milton/E & C/Fratton/Central Southsea/St Judes/St Thomas). These are the areas I go running through most days a week - and like to feel I'm quite observant on these things. I think they'll be close to wipeout - though would be very surprised to see D&F fall.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on Apr 30, 2024 19:08:01 GMT
There's been a Tory campaign?! Well. That’s the point. They seem like they are waiting for impending wipeout. They must have no activists on the ground and no leadership either. I saw a couple of Conservative activists out with leaflets in Anchorage Park. So it isn't all paid for delivery.
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Post by PoliticoP on Apr 30, 2024 19:09:22 GMT
I have not seen a single blue poster on the island (Milton/E & C/Fratton/Central Southsea/St Judes/St Thomas). These are the areas I go running through most days a week - and like to feel I'm quite observant on these things. I think they'll be close to wipeout - though would be very surprised to see D&F fall. I suspect the inquest after the elections will be stark for them. They use to have such a strong presence with their councillors too. Last two elections, they have lost some big names.
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,565
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Post by Khunanup on Apr 30, 2024 20:35:14 GMT
I have not seen a single blue poster on the island (Milton/E & C/Fratton/Central Southsea/St Judes/St Thomas). These are the areas I go running through most days a week - and like to feel I'm quite observant on these things. I think they'll be close to wipeout - though would be very surprised to see D&F fall. I suspect the inquest after the elections will be stark for them. They use to have such a strong presence with their councillors too. Last two elections, they have lost some big names. They know what's coming, well the switched on ones at least.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 30, 2024 20:41:12 GMT
I have not seen a single blue poster on the island (Milton/E & C/Fratton/Central Southsea/St Judes/St Thomas). These are the areas I go running through most days a week - and like to feel I'm quite observant on these things. I think they'll be close to wipeout - though would be very surprised to see D&F fall. If the GE is late in the year, I just wonder if the electorate will have priced in a Labour Win and already be in post-election mode before the actual election? Could the GE morph into the first post-Labour Government reality shift in advance of the event to stop the power and the sweep being too great? Could many think we are already in a Labour environment by election day and move for a correction?
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Post by PoliticoP on Apr 30, 2024 21:02:11 GMT
I suspect the inquest after the elections will be stark for them. They use to have such a strong presence with their councillors too. Last two elections, they have lost some big names. They know what's coming, well the switched on ones at least. The switched on ones? They’ve all gone haven’t they?
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 1, 2024 13:42:15 GMT
A4 eve of poll letter through the door from Lewis Gosling, basically imploring me to vote for him and not for "others".
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Post by PoliticoP on May 1, 2024 18:01:54 GMT
A4 eve of poll letter through the door from Lewis Gosling, basically imploring me to vote for him and not for "others". Will you be voting for him? Unsure where my X is going tomorrow or whether I’m going to even bother in the first place. I think it’s going to be a very independent day, unfortunately.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 1, 2024 18:04:32 GMT
A4 eve of poll letter through the door from Lewis Gosling, basically imploring me to vote for him and not for "others". Will you be voting for him? Unsure where my X is going tomorrow or whether I’m going to even bother in the first place. I think it’s going to be a very independent day, unfortunately. No. I will be voting for someone else...😉
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Post by PoliticoP on May 1, 2024 18:05:38 GMT
Will you be voting for him? Unsure where my X is going tomorrow or whether I’m going to even bother in the first place. I think it’s going to be a very independent day, unfortunately. No. I will be voting for someone else...😉 At least you’re voting. I think I have decided I won’t be, first time for a long time I’ve come to that conclusion.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 2, 2024 10:11:05 GMT
Final guesses (number of seats range):
LD 5-8 Lab 3-4 PIP: 3-5 Cons: 1-2.
Well, that's my guess. N.b my maths is pretty rubbish so I will let others point out the errors.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 2, 2024 13:39:30 GMT
Polling day letter/leaflet from Cllr Gosling (Conservative). In the last month I think I have received more literature from.the Tories than in the previous year.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 2, 2024 16:05:25 GMT
Will you be voting for him? Unsure where my X is going tomorrow or whether I’m going to even bother in the first place. I think it’s going to be a very independent day, unfortunately. No. I will be voting for someone else...😉 👍. About 3 others either in the polling station or arriving/departing when I got there.
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Post by PoliticoP on May 2, 2024 16:45:59 GMT
No. I will be voting for someone else...😉 👍. About 3 others either in the polling station or arriving/departing when I got there. I follow local politics but never heard of him before.
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Post by PoliticoP on May 2, 2024 16:46:34 GMT
Polling day letter/leaflet from Cllr Gosling (Conservative). In the last month I think I have received more literature from.the Tories than in the previous year. I follow local politics but never heard of him before.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 2, 2024 18:15:06 GMT
Polling day letter/leaflet from Cllr Gosling (Conservative). In the last month I think I have received more literature from.the Tories than in the previous year. I follow local politics but never heard of him before. Well, they are going hell for leather to try and keep him in...
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