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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on May 5, 2024 19:08:22 GMT
I have aggregated the votes (by "top vote") across Bristol city council as follows - Grn 48,486 Lab 38,868 Con 16,263 LD 13,293 TUSC 1,283 Knowle Community 905 SDP 247 Ind 237 Split by constituency: Bristol Central Grn 14,965 Lab 7,785 Con 1,532 LD 1,454 TUSC 182 Ind 135 Bristol East Grn 11,095 Lab 8,920 LD 3,392 Con 2,825 Knowle Community 905 TUSC 307 Ind 102 Bristol North East Grn 5,653 Lab 5,165 Con 1,276 LD 615 TUSC 372 SDP 188 Bristol North West Lab 8,879 Con 7,837 Grn 7,706 LD 4,910 TUSC 177 Bristol South Grn 9,067 Lab 8,119 LD 2,922 Con 2,793 TUSC 245 SDP 59 I imagine the Greens will throw everything, including the kitchen sink at Central. They would be unwise, in my view, to use resources to go for other seats in Bristol next time.
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 5, 2024 20:06:44 GMT
I imagine the Greens will throw everything, including the kitchen sink at Central. They would be unwise, in my view, to use resources to go for other seats in Bristol next time. Central needs to be their main target, but it would certainly make sense to campaign in the other seats a bit to have something to build on in 2029.
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Post by robert1 on May 6, 2024 9:52:08 GMT
I would expect them to go beyond Central. I have regarded a win for them there as a given for several months.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 6, 2024 10:17:00 GMT
I would expect them to go beyond Central. I have regarded a win for them there as a given for several months. I think Labour will win comfortably at the GE. Local election support for Greens will not translate into GE votes - and turnout will be much higher. I recall how here in Norwich in 2010 the Greens were supremely conident of winning Norwich South even when knocking up on Polling Day - based on success at council elections over the preceding years. They came in a distant 4th behind the Tories!
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Bristol
May 6, 2024 10:38:13 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on May 6, 2024 10:38:13 GMT
I would expect them to go beyond Central. I have regarded a win for them there as a given for several months. I think Labour will win comfortably at the GE. Local election support for Greens will not translate into GE votes - and turnout will be much higher. I recall how here in Norwich in 2010 the Greens were supremely conident of winning Norwich South even when knocking up on Polling Day - based on success at council elections over the preceding years. They came in a distant 4th behind the Tories! no it was the lib Dems who defeated labour instead
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graham
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Post by graham on May 6, 2024 10:47:33 GMT
I think Labour will win comfortably at the GE. Local election support for Greens will not translate into GE votes - and turnout will be much higher. I recall how here in Norwich in 2010 the Greens were supremely conident of winning Norwich South even when knocking up on Polling Day - based on success at council elections over the preceding years. They came in a distant 4th behind the Tories! no it was the lib Dems who defeated labour instead Indeed - and the key point being that the Green local election success counted for very little at the GE.
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on May 6, 2024 11:21:46 GMT
I would say that the Green party in 2024 is rather better at fighting elections than they were in 2010 or 2015 (I think it was actually the latter when Norwich South was being seriously targeted.)
I also can't imagine there being much campaigning outside of Central for the general, whatever the local results.
Finally, I think I'd strike a balance between those saying for the past few months that there's no chance and those now saying it's nailed on. I think we have a chance, but there's still a real battle here...
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graham
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Post by graham on May 6, 2024 11:46:43 GMT
I would say that the Green party in 2024 is rather better at fighting elections than they were in 2010 or 2015 (I think it was actually the latter when Norwich South was being seriously targeted.) I also can't imagine there being much campaigning outside of Central for the general, whatever the local results. Finally, I think I'd strike a balance between those saying for the past few months that there's no chance and those now saying it's nailed on. I think we have a chance, but there's still a real battle here... Not so - Adrian Ramsay was the high profile candidate in 2010 . He polled 7,095 votes - 14.9% - almost 4,000 behind the Tories and 6,500 - 7,000 behind Labour and the LDs. In 2015 Lesley Grahame was the candidate. She polled 6,749 - 13.9% - over 12,000 behind Labour's Clive Lewis - though she did out poll the LDs by 140 - the latter having fallen from 1st to 4th place!
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Post by batman on May 6, 2024 11:49:25 GMT
Perhaps the Green Party of today would not be silly enough to target the Isle of Wight, or a part thereof, in a general election. It was painfully obvious to everyone except them that it was a nailed-on Tory hold. Not quite so much this time though.
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Post by batman on May 6, 2024 11:50:34 GMT
I would say that the Green party in 2024 is rather better at fighting elections than they were in 2010 or 2015 (I think it was actually the latter when Norwich South was being seriously targeted.) I also can't imagine there being much campaigning outside of Central for the general, whatever the local results. Finally, I think I'd strike a balance between those saying for the past few months that there's no chance and those now saying it's nailed on. I think we have a chance, but there's still a real battle here... Not so - Adrian Ramsay was the high profile candidate in 2010 . He polled 7,095 votes - 14.9% - almost 4,000 behind the Tories and 6,500 - 7,000 behind Labour and the LDs. In 2015 Lesley Grahame was the candidate. She polled 6,749 - 13.9% - over 12,000 behind Labour's Clive Lewis - though she did out poll the LDs by 140 - the latter having fallen from 1st to 4th place!
I still can't figure out why Simon Wright was such a hopeless MP. He was virtually invisible & his 4th place, amazing as it seems on paper now, was hardly a surprise when it happened
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on May 6, 2024 11:55:09 GMT
Labour's problem here at the GE will be the perception that the Tories are toast anyway. I don't know if Debonnaire has a personal vote, but if does she'll need it. I think she does actually, the 2017 and 2019 results aren't really explainable without one. But nonetheless your closing comment is also correct - maybe its genuinely 50/50 at a GE now.
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Bristol
May 6, 2024 15:27:27 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on May 6, 2024 15:27:27 GMT
no it was the lib Dems who defeated labour instead Indeed - and the key point being that the Green local election success counted for very little at the GE. not so, surely greens hurting labour locally affected labours chances at re election in Norwich south
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graham
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Post by graham on May 6, 2024 15:50:13 GMT
Indeed - and the key point being that the Green local election success counted for very little at the GE. not so, surely greens hurting labour locally affected labours chances at re election in Norwich south Not obvious at all - indeed it could be argued that in 2010 the Greens denied the LDs a more convincing win over Labour.
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Bristol
May 6, 2024 16:00:58 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on May 6, 2024 16:00:58 GMT
not so, surely greens hurting labour locally affected labours chances at re election in Norwich south Not obvious at all - indeed it could be argued that in 2010 the Greens denied the LDs a more convincing win over Labour. I see your point but not convinced. I can see many Green/Lib Dem split voting to get rid of labour
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jamie
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Post by jamie on May 6, 2024 16:09:30 GMT
I don't know if Debonnaire has a personal vote, but if does she'll need it. I think she does actually, the 2017 and 2019 results aren't really explainable without one. I mean, a large proportion of the Green vote switched to Labour in 2017, and Bristol West had many more Green voters able to mark the switch. The collapse in the Lib Dem vote in 2017 to Labour’s advantage happened in many similar constituencies, and its complete absence in 2019 helped cushion them (and only falling 4% in 2019 was hardly unusual in overwhelmingly remain seats).
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graham
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Post by graham on May 6, 2024 16:18:53 GMT
Not obvious at all - indeed it could be argued that in 2010 the Greens denied the LDs a more convincing win over Labour. I see your point but not convinced. I can see many Green/Lib Dem split voting to get rid of labour But in 2010 the Green success at recent local elections likely confused alienated left of centre voters as to which was the best option available to them. The 'Clegg surge' during the campaign may actually have proved decisive there by boosting the LD vote at the expense of the Greens.
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wallington
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Post by wallington on May 6, 2024 17:24:26 GMT
I see your point but not convinced. I can see many Green/Lib Dem split voting to get rid of labour But in 2010 the Green success at recent local elections likely confused alienated left of centre voters as to which was the best option available to them. The 'Clegg surge' during the campaign may actually have proved decisive there by boosting the LD vote at the expense of the Greens. Graham is very much correct that the Greens heavily targeted Norwich South in 2010, and there was a real sense that it would be the next breakthrough seat at one point. The local party was on a high in 2009/10. The Lib Dem campaign in Norwich South was all rather mute up until the last couple of weeks. This was around the same point there seemed to be a large shift on the doorstep toward the Liberal Democrats. The Lib Dems had very little presence in Norwich outside of Eaton by 2010, and I think the victory, though possible, surprised many Lib Dems at the time.
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Post by nw12398 on May 6, 2024 18:08:50 GMT
It's worth remembering that Bristol Central has a very transient electorate with a lot of people moving in and out of the constituency between elections - allegedly the most transient in 2017. I heard from Lib Dem campaigners that year who attributed Stephen Williams' continued freefall in support to that. This will be a problem for any incumbent in getting a personal vote (nb. in the similar case of Caroline Lucas she had a large national as well as local profile after getting elected), but also a problem for a party targeting the constituency as 5 years of hardcore campaigning may only have been seen for 1-2 years by a large proportion of the electorate.
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graham
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Post by graham on May 6, 2024 18:20:24 GMT
Were Labour now about to lose office nationally - as in 2010 - a Green win in Bristol would doubtless be a more realistic prospect. However, I see it as unlikely in a year when Labour appears poised to return to power.
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Sibboleth
Labour
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Post by Sibboleth on May 6, 2024 18:48:10 GMT
I don't know, it has often been the case in the past that the odd seat here or there has nevertheless been lost despite a big national win or coming to power or both. Usually this is when the constituency is somewhat unusual; politically, demographically or in some other way.
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