YL
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Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on May 3, 2024 18:56:10 GMT
And it is. Green 34, Lab 21, Lib Dem 8, Con 7
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Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 19:04:44 GMT
Which is presumably meaningful now that Bristol has junked its mayor. Will we get a Green minority rule, or will they make a deal with the Liberal Democrats?
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r34t
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Post by r34t on May 3, 2024 19:09:42 GMT
Which is presumably meaningful now that Bristol has junked its mayor. Will we get a Green minority rule, or will they make a deal with the Liberal Democrats? Ctte system, so presumably will take most if not all chairs. Which will involve actual decision making, which will be fun for them, as having a Labour Mayor has been very convenient cover for them.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 3, 2024 19:57:04 GMT
Which is presumably meaningful now that Bristol has junked its mayor. Will we get a Green minority rule, or will they make a deal with the Liberal Democrats? I don't think deals with the Greens are flavour of the month for us just now. But we'll see.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 3, 2024 20:33:12 GMT
And it is. Green 34, Lab 21, Lib Dem 8, Con 7 Grn +10, Lab -3, Con -7. Green gain over Labour in: Ashley (2 Grn, 1 Lab -> 3 Grn; by 1160 votes) Central (1 Grn, 1 Lab -> 2 Grn; by 149 votes) Eastville (1 Lab, 1 Grn -> 2 Grn; by 104 votes) Lawrence Hill (1 Lab, 1 Grn -> 2 Grn; by 396 votes) 2x St George C (by 250/685 votes) St George W (by 724 votes) Labour gain over Conservative in: 2x Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston (2 Con, 1 Lab -> 3 Lab; Lab 1723/1607/1463, Grn 1406/1047, Con 955/944/903, Grn 830) Bishopsworth (2 Con -> 1 Con, 1 Lab; Con 994, Lab 985/844, Con 829) Frome Vale (1 Lab, 1 Con -> 2 Lab; Lab 1402/1339, Grn 899/724, Con 447/377) Green gain over Liberal Democrats in: Hotwells and Harbourside (by 668 votes over Lab, by 865 votes over LD, confirms by-election gain) 2x Knowle (2 LD -> 2 KCP (by defection) -> 2 Grn; Grn 1542/1482, KCP 905, LD 795, Lab 761, KCP 743, Lab 706, LD 701) Liberal Democrat gain over Conservative in: 3x Westbury-on-Trym and Henleaze (by 450/755/1189 votes) Split ward: Bedminster ( Grn 1964, Lab 1895, Grn 1842, Lab 1547)
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Post by andrewp on May 3, 2024 20:37:23 GMT
And it is. Green 34, Lab 21, Lib Dem 8, Con 7 Grn +10, Lab -3, Con -7. BRISW Clif lawr Green gain over Labour in: Ashley (2 Grn, 1 Lab -> 3 Grn; by 1160 votes) Central (1 Grn, 1 Lab -> 2 Grn; by 149 votes) Eastville (1 Lab, 1 Grn -> 2 Grn; by 104 votes) 2x St George C (by 250/685 votes) St George W (by 724 votes) Labour gain over Conservative in: 2x Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston (2 Con, 1 Lab -> 3 Lab; Lab 1723/1607/1463, Grn 1406/1047, Con 955/944/903, Grn 830) Bishopsworth (2 Con -> 1 Con, 1 Lab; Con 994, Lab 985/844, Con 829) Frome Vale (1 Lab, 1 Con -> 2 Lab; Lab 1402/1339, Grn 899/724, Con 447/377) Green gain over Liberal Demorats in: 2x Knowle (2 LD -> 2 KCP (by defection) -> 2 Grn; Grn 1542/1482, KCP 905, LD 795, Lab 761, KCP 743, Lab 706, LD 701) Liberal Democrat gain over Conservative in: 3x Stoke Bishop (by 450/755/1189 votes) Close holds and split ward: Bedminster ( Grn 1964, Lab 1895, Grn 1842, Lab 1547) Not complete, to be edited once the council posts the results for Brislington West, Clifton and Lawrence Hill LD gain in Westbury rather than Stoke Bishop- that really would be end of the world stuff!
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 3, 2024 20:39:29 GMT
Grn +10, Lab -3, Con -7. BRISW Clif lawr Green gain over Labour in: Ashley (2 Grn, 1 Lab -> 3 Grn; by 1160 votes) Central (1 Grn, 1 Lab -> 2 Grn; by 149 votes) Eastville (1 Lab, 1 Grn -> 2 Grn; by 104 votes) 2x St George C (by 250/685 votes) St George W (by 724 votes) Labour gain over Conservative in: 2x Avonmouth and Lawrence Weston (2 Con, 1 Lab -> 3 Lab; Lab 1723/1607/1463, Grn 1406/1047, Con 955/944/903, Grn 830) Bishopsworth (2 Con -> 1 Con, 1 Lab; Con 994, Lab 985/844, Con 829) Frome Vale (1 Lab, 1 Con -> 2 Lab; Lab 1402/1339, Grn 899/724, Con 447/377) Green gain over Liberal Demorats in: 2x Knowle (2 LD -> 2 KCP (by defection) -> 2 Grn; Grn 1542/1482, KCP 905, LD 795, Lab 761, KCP 743, Lab 706, LD 701) Liberal Democrat gain over Conservative in: 3x Stoke Bishop (by 450/755/1189 votes) Close holds and split ward: Bedminster ( Grn 1964, Lab 1895, Grn 1842, Lab 1547) Not complete, to be edited once the council posts the results for Brislington West, Clifton and Lawrence Hill LD gain in Westbury rather than Stoke Bishop- that really would be end of the world stuff! Fixed and results for Brislington W have been posted on the councl website.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on May 3, 2024 20:50:59 GMT
I make that 110 votes from an overall majority...
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Post by michaelarden on May 3, 2024 22:33:58 GMT
Apparently every councillor in the new Bristol Central is now Green. Despite the humungous notional Labour majority I suspect Gaza, Starmer's centrism and the uturn on the Green new deal will do for Thangam here (and I say this from the newly Socialist North Yorkshire).
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nyx
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Post by nyx on May 4, 2024 1:21:34 GMT
Apparently every councillor in the new Bristol Central is now Green. Despite the humungous notional Labour majority I suspect Gaza, Starmer's centrism and the uturn on the Green new deal will do for Thangam here (and I say this from the newly Socialist North Yorkshire). Bristol Central is probably a good candidate for the seat with the largest swing in the general election. I'm expecting the result to be along the lines of Denyer 50%, Debbonaire 35%.
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Bristol
May 4, 2024 5:13:41 GMT
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 4, 2024 5:13:41 GMT
Labour's problem here at the GE will be the perception that the Tories are toast anyway.
I don't know if Debonnaire has a personal vote, but if does she'll need it.
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weld
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Post by weld on May 4, 2024 6:14:46 GMT
Apparently every councillor in the new Bristol Central is now Green. Despite the humungous notional Labour majority I suspect Gaza, Starmer's centrism and the uturn on the Green new deal will do for Thangam here (and I say this from the newly Socialist North Yorkshire). Bristol Central is probably a good candidate for the seat with the largest swing in the general election. I'm expecting the result to be along the lines of Denyer 50%, Debbonaire 35%. Of course, Labour have won elections in seats where they have no Councillors before, as was the case in Islington South & Finsbury and Liverpool, Wavertree in 2005 IIRC. Might the sheen come off the Greens if they actually have power (and responsibility) in Bristol?
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Post by batman on May 4, 2024 7:01:52 GMT
It's bound to, it's a question of how long it takes.
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Post by iainbhx on May 4, 2024 7:43:04 GMT
Using Average Vote
I make it (Bristol Central) Grn 59% Lab 29% Con 6% LDm 5% - turnout was pretty decent here but this is a high turnout seat. Now local doesn't always transfer to general by a long way, but the demographics are much more liberal-left than Labour and whilst I'd still make Labour the favourites here by a margin, I think they'll have to work some hard yards here.
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 5, 2024 15:31:43 GMT
I have aggregated the votes (by "top vote") across Bristol city council as follows -
Grn 48,486 Lab 38,868 Con 16,263 LD 13,293 TUSC 1,283 Knowle Community 905 SDP 247 Ind 237
Split by constituency:
Bristol Central Grn 14,965 Lab 7,785 Con 1,532 LD 1,454 TUSC 182 Ind 135
Bristol East Grn 11,095 Lab 8,920 LD 3,392 Con 2,825 Knowle Community 905 TUSC 307 Ind 102
Bristol North East Grn 5,653 Lab 5,165 Con 1,276 LD 615 TUSC 372 SDP 188
Bristol North West Lab 8,879 Con 7,837 Grn 7,706 LD 4,910 TUSC 177
Bristol South Grn 9,067 Lab 8,119 LD 2,922 Con 2,793 TUSC 245 SDP 59
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Bristol
May 5, 2024 17:18:00 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on May 5, 2024 17:18:00 GMT
Bristol Central is probably a good candidate for the seat with the largest swing in the general election. I'm expecting the result to be along the lines of Denyer 50%, Debbonaire 35%. Of course, Labour have won elections in seats where they have no Councillors before, as was the case in Islington South & Finsbury and Liverpool, Wavertree in 2005 IIRC. Might the sheen come off the Greens if they actually have power (and responsibility) in Bristol? Islington South was very closely run in 2005 too. Anyone know how the greens are getting on governing Mid Suffolk
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jamie
Top Poster
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Post by jamie on May 5, 2024 17:45:54 GMT
The only constituency which Labour won is the one where their vote was lowest at the general election (and which had a Conservative MP until 2017).
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 5, 2024 17:50:29 GMT
The only constituency which Labour won is the one where their vote was lowest at the general election (and which had a Conservative MP until 2017). I guess the Kingswood wards would put North East in the Labour column had they voted. Still surprised the Greens 'won' the other seats
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on May 5, 2024 18:05:39 GMT
Obviously other factors will exist as well, but we should always consider local circumstances and... er... on a scale of 1-10, how unpopular was Marvin Rees, exactly?
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Bristol
May 5, 2024 18:33:17 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on May 5, 2024 18:33:17 GMT
Obviously other factors will exist as well, but we should always consider local circumstances and... er... on a scale of 1-10, how unpopular was Marvin Rees, exactly? I hear Sadiq Khan is super unpopular in London, yet has won re-election. Bristol weren't afraid to vote for someone else as Mayor. After all Marvin Rees defeated an unpopular mayor and then went on to be re-elected himself.
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