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Stroud
Aug 9, 2023 18:13:53 GMT
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:13:53 GMT
Stroud
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Aug 9, 2023 22:21:23 GMT
I'll write my customary essay on this one once I've worked out what the fucking hell is going on
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Post by swindonlad on Oct 16, 2023 6:15:20 GMT
I'll write my customary essay on this one once I've worked out what the fucking hell is going on Have you even bothered starting this yet, as things keep changing?
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Oct 16, 2023 14:54:18 GMT
I'll write my customary essay on this one once I've worked out what the fucking hell is going on Have you even bothered starting this yet, as things keep changing? Every time I try......
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Post by European Lefty on Oct 16, 2023 14:56:01 GMT
Brief summary: shit's fucked. Nobody has a clue. Possible Green gains?
Working out the level of sarcasm is left as an exercise for the reader
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Post by lackeroftalent on Feb 27, 2024 0:08:42 GMT
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Stroud
Feb 27, 2024 8:48:33 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Feb 27, 2024 8:48:33 GMT
Danae Savvidou, unsuccessful Labour candidate for Dursley in 2021 and Dursley town councillor, will stand for the Greens in Dursley
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Stroud
Feb 27, 2024 9:56:52 GMT
Post by lackeroftalent on Feb 27, 2024 9:56:52 GMT
Danae Savvidou, unsuccessful Labour candidate for Dursley in 2021 and Dursley town councillor, will stand for the Greens in Dursley Dursley has been a strongly Labour town, would be surprised if the Greens make an impact there. I was more curious about "The Community Independents" here and if Doina Cornell stands again.
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Stroud
Feb 27, 2024 12:09:08 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Feb 27, 2024 12:09:08 GMT
Danae Savvidou, unsuccessful Labour candidate for Dursley in 2021 and Dursley town councillor, will stand for the Greens in Dursley Dursley has been a strongly Labour town, would be surprised if the Greens make an impact there. I was more curious about "The Community Independents" here and if Doina Cornell stands again. It's not overwhelmingly strong, and Danae will definitely make an impact, potentially enough to win a seat. I don't know much about the community independents though I have seen stuff on Facebook about them from one or two former Labour people, and I believe there is an associated candidate in Cainscross
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 1, 2024 20:54:44 GMT
Specifically, she was one of the Independent Left group, rather than the Community Independents. The remaining Independent Left councillors are found in Nailsworth (the Group Leader) Stroud Uplands, Cainscross and Stonehouse. Uplands is a single member ward; in Nailsworth the other councillor is Labour (there is also a vacancy following the sad death of Green Cllr Norman Kay just before Christmas); Cainscross splits three ways with the Conservatives and Labour, and Stonehouse splits three ways with the Conservatives and Cllr Chris Brine, elected Labour, now Independent (but not in the Independent Left Group; keep up everyone, there'll be a test later). There's another of those, Cllr Laurie Taylor in the single-member ward of Stroud Slade, elected narrowly ahead of the Greens in 2021. The Community Independents are found in Dursley, (two out of three councillors, the third being Conservative) Cam West (split with a Conservative) and Rodborough (split with Labour) There's also a Conservative - No Group (Cllr Studdert-Kennedy) in the Stanleys, a two-member ward shared with the Greens. Will the rest of the Independent Left also merge with the Greens? Will all or some of them they stand again under their own banner, or return to Labour, or just give up? Will Labour field a full slate? Will the Greens field a full slate for the first time ever? Can they take majority control of the council? Will the Tories hold on to their councillors in all those split seats? Will the Community Independents stand again, maybe carving out a little enclave in Dursley and Cam, akin to the Lib Dems in Kingswood and Wotton-under-Edge? Will the Lib Dems storm through the middle? (no we fucking won't.)
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 21, 2024 12:24:14 GMT
I don't think I'm giving away too many party secrets if I say that it seems very unlikely any of the Cam/Dursley CIs will stand again. Town councillor Danae Savvidou is standing in Dursley for the Greens. She has name recognition and has been active for a Dursley Green candidate, but I don't think the Greens have enough support for her to actually win. I note that a column in the SNJ (I think - didn't look like the Gazette from the photo I saw) talked about the Greens, LibDems and Independents keeping the Tories out of power, whilst conveniently ignoring the party who actually led the council for ten years.....
Elsewhere, Labour candidate in Stroud Valley has been active, but again is somewhat up against it on party terms. Labour's candidates in Severn have been very active, and one of them does live in Eastington - my early pick for a shock gain. Incumbent Labour councillor for Cainscross, Jenny Miles, is standing in the Stanleys according to her Facebook. John Callinan stands again in Stonehouse, alongside two new candidates.
Labour's "out and about" work in Cam and Dursley appears to be working, whether or not it's enough to increase our count from the last election remains to be seen. I hope/expect so.
(all of this is candidates who have delivered leaflets, or canvassed, or been announced on the party website)
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Post by European Lefty on Mar 21, 2024 12:30:19 GMT
Very little of this is predictable, but:
the Greens will safely hold Stroud Trinity, Thrupp, Randwick etc. and Coaley & Uley. NSK will win at a canter in the Stanleys if he stands again, ditto Catherine Braun (Green) and Ken Tucker (LibDem) in Wotton. Under the circumstances, if Labour can't win all three seats in Stonehouse we're in big trouble. Brian Tipper hangs on in Cam East, if he stands, but Labour should definitely be looking to regain the other seat. Cam West is going to be pretty well a simple party contest - advantage Labour. Cainscross and Rodborough are both unpredictable, and Stroud is going to Stroud. Dursley is complicated with Danae's intervention.
Bisley, Minchinhampton, Chalford should see the Greens hold their seats, whilst the latter two and Painswick will be opportunities for gains.
I have been focusing almost exclusively on my own area and I'm not going to reveal any intelligence from canvassing - unlike last time, where my predictions were generally pretty good but I underestimated the Green surge, I genuinely don't have a clue what might happen in the majority of wards
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Stroud
Mar 23, 2024 0:34:33 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Mar 23, 2024 0:34:33 GMT
I don't think I'm giving away too many party secrets if I say that it seems very unlikely any of the Cam/Dursley CIs will stand again. Town councillor Danae Savvidou is standing in Dursley for the Greens. She has name recognition and has been active for a Dursley Green candidate, but I don't think the Greens have enough support for her to actually win. I note that a column in the SNJ (I think - didn't look like the Gazette from the photo I saw) talked about the Greens, LibDems and Independents keeping the Tories out of power, whilst conveniently ignoring the party who actually led the council for ten years..... Elsewhere, Labour candidate in Stroud Valley has been active, but again is somewhat up against it on party terms. Labour's candidates in Severn have been very active, and one of them does live in Eastington - my early pick for a shock gain. Incumbent Labour councillor for Cainscross, Jenny Miles, is standing in the Stanleys according to her Facebook. John Callinan stands again in Stonehouse, alongside two new candidates. Labour's "out and about" work in Cam and Dursley appears to be working, whether or not it's enough to increase our count from the last election remains to be seen. I hope/expect so. (all of this is candidates who have delivered leaflets, or canvassed, or been announced on the party website) That will be a slightly sad end to the career of Doina Cornell, who politically might not be precisely my cup of tea but was a perfectly sound leader of the council in her day. It all seems rather unnecessary but I wish her well in whatever she does next.
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iain
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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 15:57:03 GMT
Post by iain on Apr 5, 2024 15:57:03 GMT
Individual SOPNs: www.stroud.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/local-government-and-police-and-crime-commissioner-elections-thursday-2-may-2024/statement-of-persons-nominated-and-notice-of-uncontested-electionAmberley & Woodchester: Con, Lab, Grn Berkeley Vale: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 1xLD Bisley: Con, Lab, Grn, LD Cainscross: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 1xTUSC, 1xInd Cam East: 2xCon, 2xLab, 2xGrn, 1xLD Cam West: 2xCon, 2xLab, 2xGrn, 1xLD Chalford: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn Coaley & Uley: Con, Lab, Grn Dursley: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 1xLD, 1xTUSC Hardwicke: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 1xLD Kingswood: Con, Lab, Grn, LD Minchinhampton: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 1xLD Nailsworth: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 2xLD Painswick & Upton: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 1xLD Randwick, Whiteshill and Ruscombe: Con, Lab, Grn, LD Rodborough: 2xCon, 2xLab, 2xGrn, 2xInd Severn: 2xCon, 2xLab, 2xGrn, 1xLD Stonehouse: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 1xLD, 1xTUSC, 1xInd Stroud Central: Con, Lab, Grn Stroud Farmhill & Paganhill: Con, Lab, Grn Stroud Slade: Con, Lab, Grn, Ind Stroud Trinity: Con, Lab, Grn, LD, TUSC Stroud Uplands: Con, Lab, Grn, LD Stroud Valley: Con, Lab, Grn The Stanleys: 2xCon, 2xLab, 2xGrn, 1xLD Thrupp: Con, Lab, Grn Wotton Under Edge: 3xCon, 3xLab, 3xGrn, 3xLD So: Conservative - 51 Labour - 51 Green - 51 Lib Dem - 20 TUSC - 4 Independent - 5
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Post by carolus on Apr 5, 2024 15:58:55 GMT
www.stroud.gov.uk/council-and-democracy/elections/local-government-and-police-and-crime-commissioner-elections-thursday-2-may-2024/statement-of-persons-nominated-and-notice-of-uncontested-electionCon, Green, Lab - 51 LD - 20 - (3/3): Wotton-Under-Edge, (1/1): Bisley, Kingswood, "Randwick, Whiteshill & Ruscombe", Stroud Trinity, Stroud Uplands, (2/3): Nailsworth, (1/2): Cam East, Cam West, Minchinhampton, Severn, The Stanleys, (1/3): Berkley Vale, Dursley, Hardwicke, Painswick & Upton, Stonehouse TUSC - 4 - (1/1): Stroud Uplands, (1/3): Cairncross, Dursley, Stonehouse Ind - 5 -(2/2): Rodborough, (1/1): Stroud Slade, (1/3): Cairncross, Stonehouse
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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 16:05:43 GMT
Post by robert1 on Apr 5, 2024 16:05:43 GMT
Grn, Lab and LD all well up on 2021
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 5, 2024 16:06:03 GMT
Beat me to it! Though it's Cainscross not Cairncross
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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 16:14:13 GMT
Post by carolus on Apr 5, 2024 16:14:13 GMT
Grn, Lab and LD all well up on 2021 Changes: Con n/c, Lab +16, Green +18, LD +10, TUSC -1, Ind +4
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 5, 2024 16:23:28 GMT
Also key: Doina Cornell and Trevor Hall stand down in Dursley though they have endorsed Green candidate, (recently) former Town councillor Danae Savvidou. Ken Tucker retires in Wotton, which is a bit of a shock. With no co-operation between the Greens and LDs that could spell trouble for the LDs though county cllr Linda Cohen would be a favourite to get elected. David Drew stands in Stroud Central, which you'd normally expect to be a solid Green seat. I think one of the Nailsworth Greens is the widow of cllr Norman Kay who sadly passed away shortly before Christmas. Helen Fenton, elected as Labour alongside two Greens in Chalford, defends her seat as a Green.
Couple of perennial candidates stand again - Mike Stayte in Severn (which narrowly doesn't include his house) and former mayor of Berkeley Liz Ashton stands again for Labour. Long-time incumbent Haydn Sutton stands down in Stroud Farmhill & Paganhill. Repeat fixture in the pages of Private Eye, Nick Housden, defends his Stonehouse seat
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Stroud
Apr 5, 2024 16:49:30 GMT
Post by European Lefty on Apr 5, 2024 16:49:30 GMT
Finally: I gather that 3/5 independents are Community Independents according to that grouping's website - Robin Layfield and Helen Elliot-Boult in Rodborough and Charlie Mitchell in Cainscross
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