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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:13:40 GMT
Gloucester
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 10, 2023 15:10:08 GMT
They say that a rising tide lifts all ships, but one feels that the Gloucester Labour Party may put that saying to the test in 2024, as they seek to overcome their status as one of, if not the, least effective CLPs in the country.
After many years of flashing warning lights: continually struggling up against a popular Conservative administration; less than convincing by-election performances; and failures to stand a full slate of candidates; things came to a head in 2021 (admittedly not the best Labour year in general). They were reduced to just 3 seats on the council, failing to elect a full house in any ward, and were wiped out in the concurrent county elections.
From there you might think that the only way was up – not so for Gloucester Labour. Fortune looked to be on their side for once as a vacancy arose in the marginal Tuffley ward, to be held at the height of the Truss-induced crisis last Autumn: just a day before she dismissed her Chancellor in fact. In such propitious circumstances, surely even this local party could not fail to miss an open goal? Not so. Not only did they fail to take the seat, they contrived to fall to third.
In fact it is the Lib Dems who appear to have established themselves as the main challenger locally – they won 10 seats last time, and have won 2 of the 3 by-elections since (missing out by just 15 votes when coming from nowhere in Tuffley). With the Conservatives struggling nationally and the Labour Party locally, there is a real chance that the Liberal Democrats will provide the Leader of the Council from next May.
The Conservatives have been running the city for almost two decades at this point, their majority buttressed by a number of personally popular councillors who, should they restand, will fancy their chances of resisting the expected drubbing nationally, and keeping their heads above water. It does, however, look likely that the Conservatives’ reign will come to an end soon, dragged down by both infighting within their group, and the government’s pitiful poll ratings.
The composition of the administration here after May 2024 is very much up for grabs. All three parties will feel that they have a chance of becoming the largest force and providing the council leader – but, of course, two of them will be disappointed.
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Aug 10, 2023 16:05:49 GMT
I would be entirely unsurprised if the LDs won overall control here. Only the Quedgeley and Kingsway wards are probably properly safe for the Tories and even that may be tested. Some of the wealthier northeastern wards may end up split. Labour should win Barton & Tredworth (aside from the enormous personal vote for the incumbent Tory), Coney Hill and Matson & Robinswood at the bare minimum, but probably won't
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Post by carolus on Aug 10, 2023 16:39:07 GMT
Current council: 22 Con, 12 LD, 3 Lab, 2 Ind
Elected in 2021: 26 Con, 10 LD, 3 Lab
The Independents are both in Matson & Robinswood and were elected as Conservative.
In 2021 the Conservatives were guaranteed one seat in Quedgeley Fieldcourt (2).
There have been three byelections: 2021, Nov. Longlevens - LD gain from Con by 29.3% 2022, Oct. Tuffley - Con hold by 1.1% over LD, 3.6% over Lab 2023, Mar. Westgate - LD gain from Con by 13.3%
Split wards (Longlevens now 2 LD, 1 Con, Westgate now 2 Con, 1 LD): Barton & Tredworth - C 1607*/1212*/927, L 1108*/1014/814, G 292, LD 166, TUSC 85/72 Moreland - C 947*/710/697, L876*/744*/739, G 303, LD 266, I 208/134
Close wards: Barnwood - LD 928*/821*, C 782/654, L 255, G 174, I 144/120 Coney Hill - C 269*, L 207, LD 152, I 50, G 27 Elmbridge - LD 815*/777*, C 598/535, L 342, G 217 Kingsway - C 582*/439*, L 359, LD 209 Matson & Robinswood - C 952*/777*/722*, L 662/608/555, G 228, I 212/131/78, LD 120 Podsmead - LD 365*, C 335, L 162, G 35, I 24 Quedgeley Severn Vale - C 742*/658*, LD 630/545, [] 350
2021 Candidate totals (39): Con 39, LD 29, Lab 22, Green 8, TUSC 2, Libertarian 1, SDP 1, Ind 19
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iain
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Post by iain on Aug 10, 2023 18:04:31 GMT
I would be entirely unsurprised if the LDs won overall control here. Only the Quedgeley and Kingsway wards are probably properly safe for the Tories and even that may be tested. Some of the wealthier northeastern wards may end up split. Labour should win Barton & Tredworth (aside from the enormous personal vote for the incumbent Tory), Coney Hill and Matson & Robinswood at the bare minimum, but probably won't It’s just about within the realms of possibility, but is highly, highly unlikely. It would take everything going right for us, and disastrous campaigns for both other parties (and that’s assuming we even target enough seats for a majority).
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Aug 10, 2023 18:43:00 GMT
I would be entirely unsurprised if the LDs won overall control here. Only the Quedgeley and Kingsway wards are probably properly safe for the Tories and even that may be tested. Some of the wealthier northeastern wards may end up split. Labour should win Barton & Tredworth (aside from the enormous personal vote for the incumbent Tory), Coney Hill and Matson & Robinswood at the bare minimum, but probably won't It’s just about within the realms of possibility, but is highly, highly unlikely. It would take everything going right for us, and disastrous campaigns for both other parties (and that’s assuming we even target enough seats for a majority). However minority leadership ought to be achievable.
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 5, 2024 22:19:05 GMT
SOPN: www.gloucester.gov.uk/media/9517/statement-of-persons-nominated.pdfConservative - 39 Lib Dem - 36 (missing 3/3 in Matson & Robinswood) Labour - 32 (missing 3/3 in Longlevens, 2/3 in Barton & Tredworth, 2/2 in Elmbridge) Green - 11 (2/2 in Quedgeley Severn Vale, 2/3 in Barton & Tredworth, Longlevens, 1/2 in Elmbridge, Kingsway, 1/3 in Matson & Robinswood, Moreland, Westgate) Socialist Labour - 6 (2/3 in Barton & Tredworth, Matson & Robinswood, 1/1 in Coney Hill, 1/2 in Quedgeley Fieldcourt) TUSC - 3 (2/3 in Barton & Tredworth, 1/3 in Matson & Robinswood) Independent - 19 (3 in Barton & Tredworth, Matson & Robinswood, Quedgeley Severn Vale, 2 in Barnwood, 1 in Abbeydale, Coney Hill, Grange, Kingsway, Moreland, Podsmead, Tuffley, Westgate) No Description - 1 (Coney Hill) - Both the Tory defector to LD in Abbeydale and Lab defector to LD (the popular Usman Bhaimia) in Barton & Tredworth are restanding - good news for the yellows, particularly in the latter case. - Very popular Tory councillors Lyn Ackroyd (Moreland), Sajid Patel (Barton & Tredworth), Pam Tracey (Westgate) and Kathy Williams (Longlevens) are all restanding. These are split wards which you'd expect to be lost in the current environment, but all these councillors have shown an ability to far outstrip their running mates, and, with the possible exception of Ackroyd, will start as favourites. - 2 of the Independents in Matson & Robinswood are the incumbent (elected as Tory) councillors - Popular ex-LD Anna Mozol stands again as an Indy in Quedgeley Severn Vale - decent chance she (plus new Lab and Green candidates) splits the vote and ensures a Tory hold - The narrow LD loser in the Tuffley by-election goes again, but ex-Labour councillor Tracy Millard, who still has some popularity in the ward, has moved to stand in Coney Hill - Sitting Elmbridge Lib Dem Howard Hyman has moved to stand in Westgate - WTF is going on with Labour in Barton & Tredworth??
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European Lefty
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 6, 2024 8:42:17 GMT
Oh FFS Gloucester Labour. B&T should have been top of the list
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Post by greenhert on Apr 6, 2024 11:09:44 GMT
Arguably it is partly due to demographic change caused by middle class voters priced out of Cheltenham moving to the nicer parts of Gloucester although poor organisation is also clearly to blame, which is why the Liberal Democrat vote in the Gloucester constituency has over the last 3 parliamentary elections held up better than most in places of this type cf. Lincoln.
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iain
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Post by iain on Apr 6, 2024 11:12:01 GMT
Arguably it is partly due to demographic change caused by middle class voters priced out of Cheltenham moving to the nicer parts of Gloucester. 1) No it isn’t 2) Barton & Tredworth is not ‘the nicer parts of Gloucester’
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 6, 2024 11:25:28 GMT
If anything it's people priced out of the more working class areas of Stroud that are moving to Gloucester for cheaper housing - I have more than one former schoolmate who's done that
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 6, 2024 13:59:31 GMT
Arguably it is partly due to demographic change caused by middle class voters priced out of Cheltenham moving to the nicer parts of Gloucester although poor organisation is also clearly to blame, which is why the Liberal Democrat vote in the Gloucester constituency has over the last 3 parliamentary elections held up better than most in places of this type cf. Lincoln. But the LD vote isn't "holding up" here, it is displacing Labour (at local level.) The local LDs generally have their tails up there but the shambolic nature of Labour for some years now puzzles me - judging by the SOPN in Barton & Tredworth I can only assume some factional infighting, possibly post-Corbyn purges or similar.
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 7, 2024 13:36:21 GMT
Arguably it is partly due to demographic change caused by middle class voters priced out of Cheltenham moving to the nicer parts of Gloucester although poor organisation is also clearly to blame, which is why the Liberal Democrat vote in the Gloucester constituency has over the last 3 parliamentary elections held up better than most in places of this type cf. Lincoln. But the LD vote isn't "holding up" here, it is displacing Labour (at local level.) The local LDs generally have their tails up there but the shambolic nature of Labour for some years now puzzles me - judging by the SOPN in Barton & Tredworth I can only assume some factional infighting, possibly post-Corbyn purges or similar.I actually think it's simpler than that - a lot of Labour members appear to have "aged out" of activity and not been replaced by younger activists
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Apr 7, 2024 13:44:20 GMT
Often a big problem in even quite large provincial towns away from major postindustrial concentrations, let alone in the countryside.
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 7, 2024 14:16:07 GMT
Often a big problem in even quite large provincial towns away from major postindustrial concentrations, let alone in the countryside. Gloucester is a funny old place it has to be said. Got lots going for it but always seems to feel run down and a little like it's given up. It could do with some regeneration, and more to the something to promote itself properly and restore some pride in the city (especially as its civic identity has always been very strong). But I suspect a lot of people feel like politics does little for them and that there's almost no point in getting involved
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 7, 2024 19:35:55 GMT
But the LD vote isn't "holding up" here, it is displacing Labour (at local level.) The local LDs generally have their tails up there but the shambolic nature of Labour for some years now puzzles me - judging by the SOPN in Barton & Tredworth I can only assume some factional infighting, possibly post-Corbyn purges or similar.I actually think it's simpler than that - a lot of Labour members appear to have "aged out" of activity and not been replaced by younger activists A horribly familiar problem and all too plausible.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 7, 2024 19:43:34 GMT
Often a big problem in even quite large provincial towns away from major postindustrial concentrations, let alone in the countryside. Gloucester is a funny old place it has to be said. Got lots going for it but always seems to feel run down and a little like it's given up. It could do with some regeneration, and more to the something to promote itself properly and restore some pride in the city (especially as its civic identity has always been very strong). But I suspect a lot of people feel like politics does little for them and that there's almost no point in getting involved Very much agree with that; Gloucester is odd like that and I have to confess that I rather prefer it to Cheltenham for precisely that reason, while still feeling that just a bit of cleaning up and some more life in the place would do it good.
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mrtoad
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Post by mrtoad on Apr 7, 2024 20:39:30 GMT
Gloucester has a peculiar place in the imagination. The second most famous person associated with it is the presumably fictional Dr Foster, whose experience cannot be described as positive:
Doctor Foster went to Gloucester, In a shower of rain; He stepped in a puddle, Right up to his middle, And never went there again.
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Chris from Brum
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 7, 2024 20:52:25 GMT
Gloucester has a peculiar place in the imagination. The second most famous person associated with it is the presumably fictional Dr Foster, whose experience cannot be described as positive: Doctor Foster went to Gloucester, In a shower of rain; He stepped in a puddle, Right up to his middle, And never went there again. Where does Beatrix Potter's Tailor of Gloucester fit into this? From a musical POV, Gloucester was the city where Vaughan Williams' Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis was first performed at the Three Choirs Festival, and it was also the city of origin of the ill-fated composer and poet Ivor Gurney. There must, however, be numerous eminent rugby players with an association with the city, which remains one of the places where the rugby union code is the pre-eminent form of football.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Apr 7, 2024 22:08:37 GMT
Gloucester has a peculiar place in the imagination. The second most famous person associated with it is the presumably fictional Dr Foster, whose experience cannot be described as positive: Doctor Foster went to Gloucester, In a shower of rain; He stepped in a puddle, Right up to his middle, And never went there again. Where does Beatrix Potter's Tailor of Gloucester fit into this? From a musical POV, Gloucester was the city where Vaughan Williams' Fantasia on a Theme by Thomas Tallis was first performed at the Three Choirs Festival, and it was also the city of origin of the ill-fated composer and poet Ivor Gurney. There must, however, be numerous eminent rugby players with an association with the city, which remains one of the places where the rugby union code is the pre-eminent form of football. It has numerous important historic connections, but chances are most people don't associate them with the city. Aethelflaed, Lady of the Mercians (daughter of King Alfred and herself conqueror of the Mercian Danelaw) is buried there Domesday Book was presented to William the Conqueror in Gloucester Abbey (as it was before the Reformation) Robert Duke of Normandy, eldest son of William and claimant to the throne of England, is buried in the Abbey Henry III was crowned there - only king of England crowned outside of Westminster Abbey (under French occupation at the time) Lady Jane Grey was proclaimed Queen from the balcony of the New Inn (which, naturally, is one of the oldest pub buildings in the city, and perhaps the best preserved galleried courtyard inns in the country: the beer was bloody lousy whenever I've been in it, though.)
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