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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:13:09 GMT
Worcester
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 10, 2023 12:15:14 GMT
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Post by andrewp on Feb 28, 2024 16:51:49 GMT
This is a swing council where the all out election and the move away from the thirds cycle are going to come in a bad year for the Conservatives. They didn’t win any wards last years so a wipeout for a 4 year cycle is possible.
The Greens becoming the largest party is quite likely too.
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Post by carolus on Feb 28, 2024 17:42:20 GMT
Worcester have rather helpfully described the changes on their website:
I've added councillor numbers for the changed wards. The new, smaller St John's will also be (2). The other parish renamings are Warndon Parish North, and Warndon Parish South becoming St Nicholas, and Leopard Hill respectively.
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Post by carolus on Feb 28, 2024 17:55:04 GMT
On current boundaries:
Current council: 13 Lab, 11 Green, 7 Con, 4 LD
Byelections: 2023, Jul. Nunnery - Lab hold by 30.2% over Con. 2023, Oct. Warndon Parish South - Green gain by 28.7% from Con.
Split wards: Bedwardine - 2 Con, 1 Lab. 2023: Lab gain by 6.4% from Con. St Clement - 1 Con, 1 Green. 2023: Green gain by 5.4 from Con. Warndon - 1 Con, 1 Lab. 2022: Lab hold by 15.8% over Con. Warndon Parish North - 1 Con, 1 LD. 2023: LD gain by 27.1% from Con.
The only non-split Conservative ward is Gorse Hill, which didn't have elections in 2023 - in 2022 it was a Con hold by 14.7% over Lab.
2023 Candidate totals: 11 Con, 11 Green, 11 Lab, 11 LD, 3 TUSC, 1 Reform UK, 1 Ind 2021 Candidate totals: 12 Con, 12 Green, 12 Lab, 12 LD, 3 TUSC, 1 British Resistance, 1 Reforum UK, 1 WEP
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,823
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 12:47:44 GMT
SOPN: www.worcester.gov.uk/component/fileman/file/PDF%20Documents/Councillors%20and%20Democracy/Elections/2024/Statement%20of%20Persons%20Nominated%20-%20all%20City%20wards.pdf?routed=1&container=fileman-filesConservative - 35 Labour - 35 Green - 35 Lib Dem - 23 (1 candidate everywhere except 3/3 in Claines, 2/2 in Arboretum, Cathedral, Leopard Hill, St Nicholas, St Peter's Parish) TUSC - 5 (Arboretum, Cathedral, Dines Green & Grove Farm, Lower Wick & Pitmaston, Warndon & Elbury Park) Reform UK - 2 (Nunnery, St Clement) UKIP - 1 (Dines Green & Grove Farm) Independent - 4 (Cathedral, Fort Royal, Nunnery, Warndon & Elbury Park) No Description - 3 (Fort Royal, 2 in Nunnery)
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Post by andrewp on Apr 9, 2024 18:25:17 GMT
29/35 sitting councillors are standing for re election
13/13 Labour councillors are standing 9/11 Green councillors are standing 3/7 Conservatives are standing 4/4 Liberal Democrats are standing
The Conservatives had a disaster here last year losing all 7 seats they were defending, Although the vote shares weren’t as bad for them. The non Conservative parties organised themselves very well where the Conservatives were defending, The Greens won 5 seats with 29% of the vote, Labour 4 with 28%, the Conservatives 0 with 26% and the Lib Dems 2 with 16%
It’s all out elections this year and the council is moving away from thirds. There are still 35 seats but now 16 wards instead of 15. There are two broadly new wards- Dines Green & Grove Farm on the western edge of the city and carved out of St John’s ward,- and Fort Royal in the city centre and which is the result of Cathedral ward being split in two. In the east the 2 two member wards of Warndon and Gorse Hill are essentially merged into a 3 member ward- Warndon & Elbury Park.
The new ward patterns appear to me to help Labour a bit as the new wards are both in areas they would expect to win.
This may come to look stupid, but my cursory prediction is Lab 16 (+3) Green 13 (+2) LD 5 (+1) Con 1 (-6). I had thought the Greens becoming the largest party was quite likely, but on inspection if the Tories do do badly, then Labour look likely to benefit more from that. I think there is only 1 ward where I can see the Conservatives competing this year. They could easily win 0.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 1, 2024 13:22:47 GMT
Can anyone else access Worcester City Council's website? I have tried multiple times on different computers and although downforeveryoneorjustme.com/worcester.gov.uk?www=1 tells me it is working for everyone, I get absolutely nothing back. I am trying to download their notice of poll for the City Council elections.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on May 1, 2024 13:37:22 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 1, 2024 13:53:12 GMT
Thanks. I managed to download it, but only after using the VPN to go to a US IP address. Very odd.
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Post by andrewp on May 3, 2024 17:29:00 GMT
Worcester is Lab 14 Green 12 LD 2 Con 1 with two wards to go. Likely to end up Lab 17 Green 12 LD 5 Con 1
The sole Conservative survivor is Alan Amos, yes that Alan Amos
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Post by andrewp on May 3, 2024 17:40:04 GMT
And sure enough it finishes
Lab 17 (+4) Green 12 (+1) LD 5 (+1) Con 1 (-6)
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edgbaston
Labour
Posts: 3,783
Member is Online
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Post by edgbaston on May 3, 2024 17:44:34 GMT
And sure enough it finishes Lab 17 (+4) Green 12 (+1) LD 5 (+1) Con 1 (-6) & The sole Tory Cllr is a previous Labour defector. Funny how these things work out
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Post by bungle on May 3, 2024 19:31:06 GMT
And sure enough it finishes Lab 17 (+4) Green 12 (+1) LD 5 (+1) Con 1 (-6) & The sole Tory Cllr is a previous Labour defector. Funny how these things work out Alan Amos in a group of one. He’ll fall out with himself and defect within the year.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 3, 2024 19:37:57 GMT
If you pitched a novel with a character having something like Alan Amos's political career, the editor would suggest it was totally implausible and should be rewritten to be believable.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,371
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Post by Sibboleth on May 3, 2024 19:43:57 GMT
If you pitched a novel with a character having something like Alan Amos's political career, the editor would suggest it was totally implausible and should be rewritten to be believable. There may be a case for some of us here who are a bit more creatively minded to work on a script, just to see.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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Post by Sg1 on May 3, 2024 20:01:31 GMT
If you pitched a novel with a character having something like Alan Amos's political career, the editor would suggest it was totally implausible and should be rewritten to be believable. There may be a case for some of us here who are a bit more creatively minded to work on a script, just to see. Might just give that a go
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 9:37:04 GMT
Adding up the votes cast here, in an authority which exactly matches the boundaries of the current parliamentary constituency.
Green 9485 33.3% 12 seats Lab 7944 27.9% 17 seats Con 5488 19.3% 1 seat LD 4198 14.8% 5 seats Oth 1335 4.7%
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 5, 2024 9:55:52 GMT
Adding up the votes cast here, in an authority which exactly matches the boundaries of the current parliamentary constituency, but not quite the new oneGreen 9485 33.3% 12 seats Lab 7944 27.9% 17 seats Con 5488 19.3% 1 seat LD 4198 14.8% 5 seats Oth 1335 4.7% Boundaries are unchanged are they not? The seat remains coterminous with the local authority
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Post by andrewp on May 5, 2024 10:30:23 GMT
Adding up the votes cast here, in an authority which exactly matches the boundaries of the current parliamentary constituency, but not quite the new oneGreen 9485 33.3% 12 seats Lab 7944 27.9% 17 seats Con 5488 19.3% 1 seat LD 4198 14.8% 5 seats Oth 1335 4.7% Boundaries are unchanged are they not? The seat remains coterminous with the local authority Yes they are, you are right, I was for some reason thinking of the previous aborted review when Whittington was included.
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