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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:09:25 GMT
Runnymede
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redvers
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Post by redvers on Aug 22, 2023 18:10:01 GMT
Recap of May 2023- Runnymede went to No Overall Control, the first time since 1998
- 20 Conservative, 6 Runnymede Independent Residents Group (RIRG), 4 Labour, 4 Lib Dems, 3 Ottershaw Independent Group, 2 Greens, 2 Englefield Green Independents (majority is 21)
- Greens gained Addlestone North, EGI gained Englefield Green East, Labour gained Englefield Green West, Lib Dems gained New Haw
- Lib Dems were very close in New Haw last time so their gain is not a great surprise, but at 65%-31% they really knocked it out the park
- I expected Labour to have a very tough time repeating their gain of Englefield Green West - in the absence of the Tory-turned-independent candidate from last time - but in the end it was a healthy margin of over 7%
- Labour had quite the anaemic performance in Egham Hythe - the gap closing from 15.5% to 8.31% - but at the same time weren't far off a surprise win in Chertsey Riverside.
- After the election, a non-disclosed but obvious agreement was reached between the Tories and the Ottershaw Independent Group to stay in power.
Conservative targets- The only possible target is Ottershaw. Requires a 9.59% swing against the Ottershaw Independent Group. But how far are the Tories really going to go to upset a potential partner after May 2024?
RIRG targets- None. The RIRG only targets Thorpe and Egham Town, and they already have a sweep there. Thorpe is the most 'marginal', the Tories requiring a 12.47% swing. Egham Town is rock-solid.
Labour targets- Labour will be gunning for a third and final seat in Egham Hythe. As noted, their performance here was pretty naff compared to other wards - a reminder of its changing demographic support - but the Tories still require a 4.16% swing to win from its 2023 performance. If the polls improve for them though...
- Chertsey Riverside was of note in 2022, with a coalescence behind an opposition candidate making a win possible in the future. Labour are now the clear second-place party and may be able to use that to squeeze the Lib Dems and Greens, even if it's not doing as well in the polls. They require a 1.70% swing to win from the Tories.
- Addlestone South really came out of nowhere, with a big increase in the Labour vote at the expense of the Lib Dems and Greens. Possible same scenario as Chertsey Riverside above? Labour requires a 2.74% swing against the Tories.
- Labour will be aiming for that third and final seat in Englefield Green West, the Tories requiring a 3.87% swing to retain.
- Chertsey St Ann's was even more a shocker. 2022 was a close contest between the Tories and an Independent. The Independent did not stand, but Labour came out of nowhere with a big 17% increase, even considering the Greens stood. Labour requires a 4.29% swing to win.
Lib Dems targets- With the Tories requiring a 17.08% swing to retain New Haw, the Lib Dems will be odds-on favourites to win a second seat here.
- The Lib Dems require a 4.30% swing to win Virginia Water, but will need to rely on more Tory-Lib Dem switchers as there's very little Labour and Green vote to squeeze here.
Ottershaw Independent Group targets- None as they only target Ottershaw and they have all 3 seats.
Green targets- The Greens will be hoping to gain the third and final seat in Addlestone North, but with the Tories only needing a 1.09% swing to retain, it will be a close battle. The Greens will be needing to make use of the 17% Labour vote share and aim to squeeze that.
Englefield Green Independents targets- None as they only target Englefield Green East and they already have both seats (neither up for election in 2023)
SummaryShort of some real shocker in Ottershaw, which I highly doubt if only for political reasons as above, Runnymede will remain in No Overall Control with the Tories as the largest party. Whether the Tories can really be taken off their perch depends a lot on whether the main opposition parties can squeeze the vote further in their target wards, and if the polls remain as dire as they are right now. Expected ranges: - Tories (12-21)
- Labour (4-9)
- RIRG (6)
- Lib Dems (4-6)
- Ottershaw Independent Group (2-3)
- Greens (2-3)
- Englefield Green Independents (2)
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redvers
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Post by redvers on Aug 22, 2023 18:12:07 GMT
Does anyone know much about Chertsey and Addlestone South, and why Labour might be improving there at the same time as losing support in Egham Hythe? I gather Egham Hythe is a bit more working-man gritty so is this a case of Labour's changing voter base?
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Aug 24, 2023 9:49:52 GMT
The simplest explanation would be that it's not demographics, it's that Egham Hythe got fewer resources last time because it was felt to be secure enough not to need them, whereas more effort was made in the wards they advanced in.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Apr 5, 2024 15:18:12 GMT
www.runnymede.gov.uk/downloads/file/2317/statement-of-persons-nominatedDouble election in Woodham and Rowtown Conservative 14 Liberal Democrat 11/14 (not in Egham Hythe, Englefield Green West, 1/2 in Woodham and Rowtown) Labour 10/14 (not in "Longcross, Lyne and Chertsey S", New Haw, Virginia Water, 1/2 in Woodham and Rowtown) Green Party 9/14 (not in Addlestone South, Egham Hythe, Englefield Green West, "Longcross, Lyne and Chertsey S", Thorpe) Reform 2/14 (Addlestone North, Englefield Green West) Runnymede Independent Residents' Group 2/14 (Egham Town, Thorpe) Heritage 2/14 (New Haw, 1/2 in Woodham and Rowtown) Independent 3 (Egham Hythe, Englefield Green West, Ottershaw)
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 5, 2024 15:23:44 GMT
Nominations up by 16:10! www.runnymede.gov.uk/downloads/file/2317/statement-of-persons-nominatedCon 14 (all wards, 2 in Woodham & Rowtown) Lab 10 (not Longcross etc., New Haw, Virginia Water, 1 in Woodham & Rowtown) LDm 11 (not Egham Hythe, Englefield Green West, 1 in W&R) Grn 9 (not Addlestone South, Egham Hythe, Englfield Green West, Longcross etc., Thorpe, but 2 in W&R) Ind 5 (Engham Hythe, Egham Town (Runnymede IRG), Englefield Green West, Ottershaw, Thorpe (RIRG)) Others 4 (Addlestone North (Reform), Englefield Green West (Reform), New Haw (Heritage) W&R (Heritage)
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Post by No Offence Alan on Apr 24, 2024 21:34:06 GMT
For the purposes of approximating total local election votes across certain constituencies, I have allocated the wards here as follows -
Windsor - Englefield Green East (no election this year), Englefield Green West, Virginia Water
Runnymede & Weybridge - the other 11 wards.
I shall use the "top vote" in the 2-member contest.
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Post by Robert Waller on May 3, 2024 17:22:52 GMT
Runnymede results here democracy.runnymede.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=5&RPID=0Compared with 2021: Lab gain 3 LD gain 2 Green gain 1 Lab lose 6 Compared with 2023: The LDs have gained Virginia Water from C. Labour have held their two wards (Egham Hythe and Englefield Green West) and gained Chertsey St Ann's and Chertsey Riverside The only ward the C have held on to so far is Addlestone South, by 9 votes from Lab (80 votes was the gap in 2023)
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redvers
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Post by redvers on May 3, 2024 17:38:53 GMT
Lots more than that going on! Labour win Chertsey Riverside and Chertsey St Ann's. Unprecedented success. Narrowly missed out on Addlestone South. And Lib Dem gain in New Haw.
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redvers
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Post by redvers on May 3, 2024 17:46:11 GMT
Greens gain final seat in Addlestone North too. Tories have lost every target seat except Addlestone South and raises prospect of multi-party coalition taking control.
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 5, 2024 10:22:06 GMT
I have aggregated the votes across Runnymede Borough as follows -
Con 6,230 Lab 4,298 LD 3,962 Runnymede Independent Residents 1,400 Grn 1,292 Ind 1,166 Reform 252 Heritage 95
The split between constituencies is -
Runnymede and Weybridge Con 5,199 Lab 3,928 LD 3,154 RIR 1,400 Grn 1,208 Ind 844 Ref 151 Her 95
Windsor Con 1,031 LD 808 Lab 370 Ind 322 Ref 101 Grn 84
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Post by stodge on May 5, 2024 10:30:20 GMT
Probably the lowest number of Conservatives ever on this Council with seven losses taking the party from 20 to 13.
It's hard to see how the Conservatives can continue to lead the council on these numbers and I suspect there will be plenty of to and fro between the other opposition groups to create a new administration.
IF both Runnymede and Reigate & Banstead move to non-Conservative administrations, I think that will leave only the County Council still as a Conservative majority in the county with all eleven District and Borough Councils having non-Conservative administrations.
Astonishing...
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 11, 2024 18:12:49 GMT
democracy.runnymede.gov.uk/mgElectionResults.aspx?ID=5&RPID=23965234Third: Lab 4 (+4), LD 3 (+2), Con 2 (-7), RIRG 2, Grn 1 (+1), Ind 1 Council: Con 13, Lab 8, LD 6, RIRG 6, Ind 5, Grn 3 %, according to council: Con 36%, Lab 22%, LD 20%, RIRG 7%, Grn 7%, Ind 6% Green gain over Conservative in: Addlestone N (by 175 votes) Labour gain over Conservative in: Chertsey Riverside (by 115 votes) Chertsey St Ann's (by 174 votes) Egham Hythe (by 223 votes) Englefield Green W (by 38 votes over Con, by 48 votes over Ind) Liberal Democrat gain over Conservative in: New Haw (by 876 votes) Virginal Water (by 109 votes) Close holds: Addlestone S (Con hold by 9 votes over Lab)
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batman
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Post by batman on May 11, 2024 18:34:55 GMT
These are the first Labour victories in Chertsey for quite a long time. They used to be fairly commonplace.
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