|
Hart
Aug 9, 2023 18:05:05 GMT
Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:05:05 GMT
Hart
|
|
|
Post by redvers on Aug 24, 2023 13:10:33 GMT
Recap of May 2023- Elected by thirds.
- On first appearance, not much happened, but when you dig deeper...yeah, not much happened, but still some interesting tidbits.
- No gains by anyone.
- Composition remained unchanged - 11 Lib Dems, 11 Conservative, 10 Community Campaign Hart (CCH), 1 Independent. (17 for majority)
- Near-equal split belies the council's stability - Lib Dems and CCH are in coalition and an electoral arrangement whereby they don't stand against each other.
- The spoilers proved to be Labour and the Greens, standing more candidates this year than in many past. CCH nearly lost Fleet West to the Tories, and had their majority slashed hard in Crookham West & Ewshot.
Lib Dem targets- Even in spite of the Labour and Green presence, the Lib Dems increased their majority in Fleet East in 2023. The Tories require a 10.32% swing to retain their lone remaining seat, a tall order and the Lib Dems will be hopeful of sweeping the ward.
- Hook is a tricky one to judge, as the contest in 2023 was between an incumbent Independent and the Conservatives (Labour as a spoiler). The Lib Dems did not stand, but in 2022 they required a 3.29% swing to win against the incumbent Tories. Had that been repeated in 2023, perhaps an increased Labour vote would have spoiled their chances, but maybe 2024 will be different?
Conservative targets
- Tories require a 4.71% swing to gain Crookham West & Ewshot from CCH. With the Greens and Labour gaining just under 20% of the vote, this seat went from semi-safe to marginal.
CCH targets- Tories require a 1.84% swing to retain their lone remaining seat in Fleet West against CCH. If polls improve whilst Labour and the Greens remain spoilers, quite possible. In 2019, CCH had a 26.11% majority so they've really fallen back, though that was an odd year for what is traditionally a marginal.
- Tories require a 3.29% swing to retain their lone remaining seat in Fleet Central against CCH. Unlike Fleet West, there is a history here of spoilers (Labour and one Howling Laud Hope of the OMRLP). As before, CCH had a very strong performance in 2019 but the seat has otherwise never been safe for them.
Summary
The council is sure to remain in NOC after May 2024. Expected ranges:
- Lib Dems (11-13)
- Conservatives (7-12)
- CCH (9-12)
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,823
Member is Online
|
Hart
Apr 8, 2024 10:40:50 GMT
Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 10:40:50 GMT
SOPN: www.hart.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2024-04/Statement~of~Persons~Nominated~Districts.pdfConservative - 12 Labour - 9 (missing Crookham West & Ewshot, Yateley West, 1/2 in Fleet East) Lib Dem - 8 Community Campaign (Hart) - 4 Green - 4 (Hook, Odiham, Yateley East, 1/2 in Fleet East) Reform UK - 1 (Yateley East) OMRLP - 1 (Fleet Central) Homeland Party - 1 (Hartley Wintney) The usual LD / CC(H) pattern, the latter in Crookham East and West, Fleet Central and West; the former everywhere else
|
|
iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,823
Member is Online
|
Post by iain on May 3, 2024 1:51:05 GMT
|
|
|
Post by carolus on May 3, 2024 1:55:11 GMT
Which I think makes the council overall: 12 LD 11 CCH 9 Con 1 Ind
|
|
cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
Member is Online
|
Hart
May 3, 2024 2:09:51 GMT
via mobile
peterl likes this
Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 2:09:51 GMT
Cons -2 LD +1 CCH +1
|
|
|
Hart
May 3, 2024 10:24:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by redvers on May 3, 2024 10:24:47 GMT
Surprised the Tories retained Fleet West whilst losing Fleet Central.
|
|
|
Hart
May 3, 2024 10:52:11 GMT
via mobile
Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 3, 2024 10:52:11 GMT
Surprised the Tories retained Fleet West whilst losing Fleet Central. More new build estates on the west, more established residents in Fleet Central (and thus more receptive to CCH/LDs) is my guess.
|
|
|
Hart
May 3, 2024 10:58:40 GMT
Post by redvers on May 3, 2024 10:58:40 GMT
Surprised the Tories retained Fleet West whilst losing Fleet Central. More new build estates on the west, more established residents in Fleet Central (and thus more receptive to CCH/LDs) is my guess. Well that would surely have been the case last year, when the Tory loss in West was larger than in Central. Maybe a personal vote for the Tory candidate?
|
|
|
Hart
May 3, 2024 11:03:11 GMT
via mobile
Post by Disgusted Of Tunbridge Wells on May 3, 2024 11:03:11 GMT
More new build estates on the west, more established residents in Fleet Central (and thus more receptive to CCH/LDs) is my guess. Well that would surely have been the case last year, when the Tory loss in West was larger than in Central. Maybe a personal vote for the Tory candidate? Perhaps, but my point about a more transient population comes into play here too. Could have been a significantly different electorate than last time
|
|
peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,270
|
Hart
May 17, 2024 18:55:18 GMT
Post by peterl on May 17, 2024 18:55:18 GMT
Cabinet
* Leader and Strategic Direction and Partnerships - Councillor David Neighbour (Lib Dem) * Deputy Leader and Finance - Councillor James Radley (Community Campaign Hart) * Climate Change and Corporate Services - Councillor Richard Quarterman (Lib Dem) * Community Services - Councillor Stuart Bailey (Lib Dem) * Digital and Communications - Councillor Tony Clarke (Community Campaign Hart) * Parking and Community Safety - Councillor Tina Collins (Community Campaign Hart) * Planning Policy and Development Management - Councillor Alan Oliver (Community Campaign Hart) * Regulatory - Councillor Peter Wildsmith (Lib Dem)
So 4 Lib Dems and 4 CCH.
|
|