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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 18:02:03 GMT
Cannock Chase
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 10, 2023 12:00:29 GMT
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 3, 2024 17:02:01 GMT
Boundary review reduces wards from 15 to 12 and councillors from 41 to 36. Current Composition: Lab: 18 (+1 since 2023 election due to Lib Dem defection) Con: 18 Green: 5 After 2023 locals the council was run by a coalition of Lab/Lib/Grn before the Lib Dem councillor left the party and later joined Labour Norton Canes
The only unchanged ward here is Norton Canes, which is currently a split ward with 2 Labour and 1 Conservative councillor, the Con being elected in 2021. The ward has somewhat flip flopped throughout the years between labour and conservative, with Labour winning 11 seats here since 2002 and the Conservatives winning 8. Labour should definitely be sweeping all three seats as both the 2022 and 23 elections returned labour with over 60% of the vote. The conservatives dropped to just 22.2% of the vote last year, with Josh Newbury holding the seat for Labour, who also happens to be their candidate for MP of Cannock Chase.
Cannock Longford & Bridgtown
This is the Cannock South ward renamed to be more representative of the area it actually encompasses. Their are 2 main changes to the ward, the first being the loss of the Rumer hill estate to the old Hawks Green ward, now renamed Hawks Green & Rumer Hill. The other change is the movement of the boundary with Cannock West, the old line was drawn across the Wolverhampton road and curving around the town centre, the new boundary follows park road near the town centre and track s under Gorsey Lane. This change was to make the town centre fully part of this ward as opposed to split between the old Cannock south and west.
Cannock South is once again a split ward, with 2 Labour and 1 Conservative, once again elected in 2021. While i'd still expect Labour to sweep this ward, I don't think its as cut and dry as Norton Canes is. The addition of a quite Conservative chunk of the very Conservative former Cannock West, pushed this into somewhat of a marginal, however if Labour wants outright control of the council, these are the seats they need to be winning.
Cannock Park & Oldfallow
This is old Cannock West ward, save for the streets lost south of Gorsey Lane and Park Road as mentioned above. The main change here is the boundary between this and the disappearing Cannock North, now Chadsmoor, being pushed up from the Old Fallow Road to the Cemetary road, making the council estates around Bevan Lee Road a part of this Ward. The other change is the boundary between this and the old Cannock East, now Hawks Green & Rumer Hill ward being moved to trace along the Old Hednesford Road just before the roundabout on the chase industrial estate, as opposed to previously where the line turned off onto Cannock Road. This means the area around the former Blackwoods working mens club is now a part of this ward tracking along Crab Lane.
The old Cannock West was the most Conservative ward in the district, having never returned anything other than Conservative Councillors since 2002, and even last years fairly poor conservative performance they still beat the Labour Party by over 400 votes. While this new Ward layout is certainly more interesting than the old one, with the addition of chunks of quite Labour favourable areas of the former Cannock North and South and the loss of quite leafy surburban like areas South of Gorsey Lane, I still can't see anything other than a Conservative clean sweep here, unless things go very badly.
Hawks Green & Rumer Hill
This Ward consists of the old Hawks Green ward with the exception of a small residential area around Gorsemoor road and Primary School, with the additions of just under a third of the old Cannock East ward, south of the Old Hednesford Road, and the Rumer Hill estate from Cannock South.
The old Hawks Green was constistently Conservative from 2002 to 2023, with the only exception being a UKIP win in 2014. While the addition of a chunk of Labour voting Cannock East may sound like it might make it more interesting when you look at the area thats changed hands its mainly business parks and industrial estates and the very lovely Mill Green nature park. I would lean this towards Conservatives across the board, however on a good night for Labour they could certainly take at least some of these
I'll work on the other wards over the coming days, this is the first time i've wrote one of these so please let me know if there's any errors or inconsistencies.
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 3, 2024 20:44:07 GMT
Heath Hayes & Wimblebury
Minor name change here, with the east being removed from the ward name. Boundary changes include the previously mentioned area around Gorsemoor primary and road, which the Labour party opposed as the area has community links to the Hawks Green Ward . A chunk is also taken from the disappearing Hednesford South Ward, extending the boundary line further up the B4154 to loop around the Lower Keys and Littleton Business park, this helped to more effectively group electors in one ward as the original line cut the area at a diaganol. The other minor addition is the inclusion of the Cannel mount nature area from the old Rawnsley ward, which has some lovely walking paths from what I can remember and makes more sense to be in this ward geographically speaking. There are however very few electors in this area and so should not make any big difference.
Currently Heath Hayes East & Wimblebury is represented by 2 Labour Councillors and 1 Conservative, however one of the Labour Councillors was elected as a Conservative in 2021, I unfortunately cannot seem to find any reasoning behind this anywhere. Politically quite similar to the Hawks Green ward, in that it's generally been Conservative over the years and both seats elected a UKIP councillor in 2014. This is a much closer ward however, with Labour generally always just behind the Conservatives, or just about edging them out of the seat, like in 2023 where they won but only by 40 votes.
This will be a really interesting one to watch, i don't think the boundary changes add much here to the narrative, the area taken from Hawks Green is similar enough to the old seat anyway and while Hednesford South has elected Green and independent groups since 2016, the chunk taken from their is too small to make a huge difference i think. This could end up as quite a messy split ward, however its the area of the council im least familar with.
Hednesford Hills & Rawnsley
This is really a merger of the form Hednesford South ward and Rawnsley Ward. The entirety of the old Rawnsley ward is represented here outside of Cannel Mount, and a majority of the Hednesford South ward is here, excluding the area taken by Heath Hayes as mentioned above, and a small section of seats to the south of the Hednesford Train Station.
This is a ward review that really works against the Green Party. Both the previous Rawnsley and Hednesford South wards returned Greens since 2016, giving the party 4 Councillors, however this merger gives them a maximum of three. Given that I would still bank on them taking the three seats here.
Chadsmoor
This seat is made up of the Disappearing Cannock North and East, it encompasses pretty much the whole of the old North ward, except for the previously mentioned Bevan Lee estate and area around the Cannock cemetary which is now part of Cannock Park & Old Fallow. The main change here is the merge with Cannock East which allows the entirety of the Chadsmoor village to be represented in 1 area, as opposed to split between 2 as previous.
Cannock North is a fairly Consistent Labour ward, with the Labour Councillor in 2023 holding her seat by margin of 400 seats, the seat is currently 2 Lab, 1 Con, and yes that conservative was once again, elected in 2021. Cannock East is similarly quite solidly Labour and so this seat should return a full slate of Labour Councillors.
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 3, 2024 21:27:02 GMT
Hednesford Green Heath
The only change here is moving from 2 councillors to 3. This is another area that has historically been very tight between Labour and Conservatives, with margins of victory as low as 4 votes in 2010 and more recently, in 2019, the Conservatives won with just 13 more votes than the second place. Currently, this is a split ward between Labour and Conservative, with the latter being elected in 2022. This is another seat where, if Labour wants that majority control, they need to be winning all three seats in the 'all-ups' this year. Given that 2023 was the best performance they had here, finally winning over 50% and having a comfortable election, you would expect them to be quite confident about taking these seats. Hednesford Pye Green
This is essentially a name change, with the entirety of the old Hednesford North being inside of this ward, with the addition of the estates north of Hednesford train station that was formerly part of Hednesford South. Similarly to Hednesford Green Heath, this is another seat moving from 2 Councillors to 3. Unlike Hednesford Green Heath, I see this one has far more of a Labour, Green battleground. The old ward is currently split between these 2 parties, with the green councillor being elected last year by a margin of 48 votes with Labour in second and the Conservatives third. The Green Councillor was on the ballot in 3 elections before 2023 standing for Chase Independent Group before their ultimate demise. This is another one where its really quite hard to predict what will happen, realistically if the Greens want to keep their representation on the council at the level where it is now, they need to take all 3 seats in the new Hednesford Hills and Rawnsley seat, and at least 2 of three of here, which i think is definitely doable.
Etching Hill and the Heath
This ward retains its name and all of its original area, with the addition of a significant chunk of residential area south of Western Springs Road down to just past Hagley Road. This addition also oddly means that Western Springs Primary School is no longer in, well, Western Springs. This ward was once a stronghold for the Liberal Democrats, exclusively returning them for 10 years, back when they had any sort of significant presence on the council. Currently, the ward is represented by 2 Conservative and 1 Labour councillor, with the Labour councillor being elected in a by-election in January of last year. I honestly don't see much hope for the Labour Party here in retaining their seat, let alone gaining more. This ward has been consistently Conservative for 12 years, with the by-election victory being somewhat of a blip on the radar. Across the district last year, the Labour Party received the highest proportion of the popular vote they have had since 2012, and they still didn't really come close to taking this seat, trailing by 205 votes. Unless they campaign hard here, or the Labour councillor from the by-election win is really popular, I think this will be a Conservative sweep.
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 4, 2024 17:41:40 GMT
Western Springs
This is one of the most interesting changes to me. The old Western Springs ward used to comprise a majority of the market town of Rugely, which is twinned with a town in Illinois called Western Springs, which from what i can tell is where the name for this ward comes from as i can find no other historical link. The new Western Springs ward is expanded quite dramatically , only losing the areas south of the Western Springs road to the Etching heath and the Hill Ward. There are 2 major changes here, the biggest of which being the expansion of territory to the south of the old ward, taking 2 thirds of the old Hagley ward which is disappearing this year. The new line travels down the Hednesford road, before cutting around to include Somerset Avenue and Essex drive. The other expansion here is at the cost of the Brereton and Ravenhill ward, pretty much cutting the top off the ward to take the land north and south of the A51, however this land is mainly consisting of said road and the Tower Business park and doesn't include any electors from what i can tell. The old Western springs ward has a similar political history to the previously previewed Etching Hill and the Heath ward. Solidly Lib Dem for the first ten-ish years before becoming quite consistently conservative, however not the stronghold that Etching Hill has been with 2 Labour victories here in 2016 and 2012. Currently the ward is represented by 3 Conservatives, including the leader of the Conservative group.
There are a couple of reasons why i think this new Ward will be more interesting than the last. The first is even in the old ward, last year Labour came within of 50 votes of the Conservatives. The second and much more interesting in my opinion, is the addition of a huge chunk of the old Hagley ward. The old Hagley ward is far more Labour leaning than Western Springs ever has been. The old Hagley was a 2 Councillors ward, split 1C and 1L, with the conservative once again being elected in 2021. The Conservatives have only ever won here twice, back to back victories in 2019 and 2021. The Labour party gained this seat last year on a huge swing, going from losing by 32 votes in 2019, to winning by 324 votes this time around. If Labour perform to the same level they did last year, they should really be heading for at least 2 of the 3 seats here. Brereton & Ravenhill
Only 2 real changes here, the loss of the land north of the Armitage road, and the gain of the residential areas to the east of sandy lane in the old Hagley Ward. Brereton & Ravenhill, similarly to most of these wards in the northern area of the district, was a strong Lib Dem constituency, only electing a Conservative once, in 2021 as you might have guessed and Labour candidates 3 times opver the years. As previously mentioned, Cannock Council did use to have a strong Lib Dem presence, with 15 Councillors in 2010 and running the council, before slowly leaking them away over the coming years. Brereton and Ravenhill was the last ward that had any Lib Dem representation, before 2023 the ward was split 2 Lib Dems and 1 conservative, before the Liberal democrat candidate, Gerald Molineux lost his seat of over 21 years in his first ever election loss to the Labour Party last year by a margin of 238 votes. He was granted the title of Honory Alderman last year for his service to the area. That left the only Liberal Democrat representative on the council, Paul Fisher, who in august of the same year left the party before later joining the Labour party, meaning the Ward currently sits at 2 Lab and 1 Conservative.
With the addition of the Labour voting Hagley areas and the seeming fall in support for the Liberal Democrats, this should be a sweep for the Labour party.
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 4, 2024 17:47:22 GMT
I can see this being a really knife edge election, Labour will be gunning for the Majority here and are really putting in the effort from what i can see, with Labour activists out every weekend, talking up the prospects of a gain in the general election and gains on the council. The ones to watch i think will be Hawks Green & Rumer Hill and Western springs in terms of Council control. Whether the Greens maintain their presence will be seen in Hednesford Hills & Rawnsley and Hednesford Pye Green
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 5, 2024 19:04:02 GMT
CON: 36
LAB: 36
GRN: 32(Missing 1 in Cannock Park & Old Fallow, Hawks Green with Rumer Hill, Hednesford Green Heath, Norton Canes)
IND: 5
RFM: 5 TUSC: 2
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Post by batman on Apr 5, 2024 20:34:39 GMT
no Lib Dems at all, interesting
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Post by greenrichard on Apr 5, 2024 20:56:57 GMT
no Lib Dems at all, interesting Their last Councillor in Brereton defected to Labour recently and their other previous councillor has decided to stand as an independent in Brereton. The independent candidate has actually signed the Labour candidates nomination form as seconder.
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 5, 2024 21:02:51 GMT
Brereton & Ravenhill
The Labour candidates are Carl Boulton, elected to this seat last year. David Williams, who gained the seat in disappearing Hagley last year from the Conservatives. Paul Fisher was first elected here in 2011 for the Liberal Democrats before defecting to Labour last year.
The Conservatives have Julia Kenny who fought the old Hagley Ward last year and 2 newcomers.
The Greens have Kevin Elson, partner of other Green Councillor Jo Elson elected in 2022 in Rawnsley. Claire Wilkinson is one of the other candidates here similarly was elected in Rawnsley, this time in 2018
The independent is someone i mentioned in the previews of this ward, Gerald Molineux, who finally lost his seat here after 21 years as a Lib Dem Councillor.
Cannock Longford & Bridgtown
Labour have Maureen Freeman, elected to this seats predecessor Cannock South in 2016. Jeff Hill came second in Hednesford Green Heath in 2022 and was elected in 2023 to Cannock South. Alan Pearson was first elected in Hednesford North in 2016, before losing his seat there in 2021, and being elected again in Cannock south this time in 2022.
The Conservatives have Peter Kruskonjic, who came second in Cannock North in 2018, Cannock South in 2019 and then winning in Cannock South in 2021. Paul Snape is the other Conservative on the ballot with a History on the Council. First appearing on the Ballot in 2010 in Cannock South and coming second, before being elected to safe Conservative seat Cannock West in 2011, reelected in 2015, before coming second again in Cannock South in 2023.
The Greens Eloise Cropp has been on the ballot in 3 different wards, Hawks Green, Cannock South and Cannock West, coming third in each. Arlette Carmichael has been on the Cannock East ballot 3 times and Hednesford North once.
Cannock Park & Old Fallow
Labours Natalie Hill was on the ballot in this seats predecessor Cannock West last year coming second behind the Conservatives with 31% of the Vote. Paula Stanton was elected to Cannock North last year. Steve Thornley was on the ballot in Cannock West twice in 2022 due to a by election, coming second both times.
The Conservatives Josh Bancroft (Who is the youngest member on the council I think), was first on the ballot in Hednesford South in 2021 losing to the now Defunct Chase independent Group, before being elected in Cannock West in 2022. Val Jones first fought in the Rawnsley ward, coming second behind the Green Candidate in 2018, before being elected in Cannock West in 2019 and reelected last year. Bill Kenny was on the ballot in 2022 in Cannock South coming second by just 15 votes, before being elected in Cannock West later that year in a By-election.
I don't know much about either Green Candidate, Maire smith has been on the ballot in the old Cannock West in every election since 2015.
Our first Reform Candidate so far, Paul Carnell, was on the ballot as an Independent last year in Cannock north, coming third. Be interesting to see if he manages to get anywher close here, given UKIP came Second place here during there Hayday, although i wouldn't hold out much hope for that given that the reform candidate in 2022 in Norton Canes, which UKIP used to poll quite well in, only got 87 votes.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 8, 2024 8:16:11 GMT
CON: 36
LAB: 36
GRN: 32(Missing 1 in Cannock Park & Old Fallow, Hawks Green with Rumer Hill, Hednesford Green Heath, Norton Canes)
IND: 5
RFM: 5 TUSC: 2
Independents are 2 in Hawks Green & Rumer Hill and 1 in each of Brereton & Ravenhill, Etching Hall & The Heath, Hednesford HIll & Rawnsley. Also a 'No description' in Hednesford Green Heath Reform UK have 1 each in Cannock Park & Oldfallow, Chadsmoor, Hawks Green & Rumer Hill, Heath Hayes & Wimblebury, Hednesford Green Heath TUSC 1 each in Hednesford Pye Green, Norton Canes
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 8, 2024 16:39:46 GMT
The Reform UK candidate in Hawks Green & Rumer hill was formely a UKIP councillor in 2014 in Heath Hayes & Wimblebury
Ind with no description is in Hednesford Green Heath, He was originally elected here as an LD in 2003 before losing his seat in 2007. He has since attempted reelection in this ward 7 times.
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 15, 2024 16:16:30 GMT
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Post by greenrichard on Apr 15, 2024 16:50:41 GMT
Are the Green Party (who are currently running n coalition with Labour) omitted for any particular reason? We’ve been contesting elections here for some time.
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Post by jdubbbz on Apr 15, 2024 17:25:50 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Apr 25, 2024 15:13:13 GMT
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Post by Dalek Prime on May 3, 2024 17:03:55 GMT
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
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Post by maxque on May 5, 2024 19:28:38 GMT
Council: 21 Lab (+3), 10 Con (-8), 5 Grn Brereton and Ravenhill: 3 Lab Cannock Longford and Bridgtown: 2 Lab, 1 Con ( Lab 793/751, Con 697, Lab 675, Con 658/651) Cannock Park and Old Fallow: 2 Con, 1 Lab ( Con 719/713, Lab 626/609, Con 599, Lab 585) Chadsmoor: 3 Lab Etching Hill and the Heath: 3 Con (by 57/148/195 votes over Lab) Hawks Green with Rumer Hill: 2 Con, 1 Lab ( Con 610/573, Lab 520, Con 514, Lab 484/460) Heath Hayes and Wimblebury: 3 Lab (Con 146 votes away from a seat) Hednesford Green Heath: 3 Lab (Con 151 votes away from a seat) Hednesford Hills and Rawnsley: 3 Grn Hednesford Pye Green: 2 Grn, 1 Lab ( Grn 583/572, Lab 564/548, Grn 520, Lab 518) Norton Canes: 3 Lab Western Springs: 2 Con, 1 Lab ( Con 699, Lab 640, Con 506, Lab 489, Con 459, Lab 448, Grn 341/247/169)
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