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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 17:36:45 GMT
Solihull
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,557
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Post by iang on Aug 14, 2023 17:02:46 GMT
Current council Con 29, Green 12, LD 6, Independent 4 (one elected as Ind)
Up in 2024, 12 Con, 5 Green (counting the Independents due up as what they were elected as)
Split wards Elmdon 1 Con, 2 LD, Con defence, LD maj 19% in 2023 Kingshurst & Fordbridge 2 Green, 1 Con, Gr defence, Con maj 2.6% 2023 Lyndon 1 Con, 2 LD, Con defence, LD maj 33% 2023 Olton 1 Con, 2 LD, Con defence, LD maj 6% 2023 (and Con defender sitting as Ind having been suspended from Con group earlier in the year) Shirley South 1 Ind, 2 Green, Gr defence. The Ind is Cllr Hodgson senior, former Green (and indeed Lib Dem), who left the Greens amid their local turmoil which surrounded his son, but held on 2022 as an Ind with neither Green nor LD opposition. Presumably this year, another comfortable Green hold
So overall, three LD gains from Conservative very likely but no other obvious movement. Labour are only competitive in K&F where they are about 10% back in 3rd. They have lots of 2nd places, but 25% short in Shirley South is their next most winnable. However, not much prospect for expansion for Greens or Lib Dems (who don't tend to run in each others' seats). Assuming the Greens and LDs pick off the remaining seats in their wards, that still leaves them a ward short of depriving the Conservatives of control. The ward to watch might be St Alphege, where the LD vote went up 17% in 2023, the Tory majority at 21% is their lowest in a non split ward, and where the defending Councillor was suspended from the Conservatives two years ago after her remarks about autism. Maybe if she chooses to stand again, that will have an impact also.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 14, 2023 17:27:08 GMT
Current council Con 29, Green 12, LD 6, Independent 4 (one elected as Ind) Up in 2024, 12 Con, 5 Green (counting the Independents due up as what they were elected as) Split wards Elmdon 1 Con, 2 LD, Con defence, LD maj 19% in 2023 Kingshurst & Fordbridge 2 Green, 1 Con, Gr defence, Con maj 2.6% 2023 Lyndon 1 Con, 2 LD, Con defence, LD maj 33% 2023 Olton 1 Con, 2 LD, Con defence, LD maj 6% 2023 (and Con defender sitting as Ind having been suspended from Con group earlier in the year) Shirley South 1 Ind, 2 Green, Gr defence. The Ind is Cllr Hodgson senior, former Green (and indeed Lib Dem), who left the Greens amid their local turmoil which surrounded his son, but held on 2022 as an Ind with neither Green nor LD opposition. Presumably this year, another comfortable Green hold So overall, three LD gains from Conservative very likely but no other obvious movement. Labour are only competitive in K&F where they are about 10% back in 3rd. They have lots of 2nd places, but 25% short in Shirley South is their next most winnable. However, not much prospect for expansion for Greens or Lib Dems (who don't tend to run in each others' seats). Assuming the Greens and LDs pick off the remaining seats in their wards, that still leaves them a ward short of depriving the Conservatives of control. The ward to watch might be St Alphege, where the LD vote went up 17% in 2023, the Tory majority at 21% is their lowest in a non split ward, and where the defending Councillor was suspended from the Conservatives two years ago after her remarks about autism. Maybe if she chooses to stand again, that will have an impact also. The somewhat unexpected Conservative gain in K&F this year may well be the deciding factor in them retaining control in 2024. Will the Greens have been shocked into action in Kingshurst?
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,557
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Solihull
Aug 14, 2023 17:47:12 GMT
via mobile
Post by iang on Aug 14, 2023 17:47:12 GMT
True, but only up to a point. The Tories have 29/51, and in all probability will lose three seats to us next year. But one of those is currently sitting as an Independent having been suspended, so even without K&F, they would still be on 26 and just in control, unless they lose somewhere else also.
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Post by andrewp on Aug 14, 2023 17:51:57 GMT
Yes I suppose the K and F gain safeguards them and means they could afford to lose St Alpheage.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Aug 14, 2023 21:38:31 GMT
The maths here is faulty. The Tories currently have 29 seats and will likely lose two to the Lib Dems (as stated above Olton would be a LD gain from Ind) so even without the Kingshurst and Fordbridge win this year and even if the Tories fail to regain St Alphege they would still have 26 out of 51 seats.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,557
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Solihull
Aug 15, 2023 0:53:58 GMT
via mobile
Post by iang on Aug 15, 2023 0:53:58 GMT
Yes, that's right. In terms of election, the Tories have 31 seats, but have "lost" two to suspension, so two "official" losses to the Lib Dems will still leave them on 27, and with a cushion of one even without the 2023 gain in K&F
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,823
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Post by iain on Apr 8, 2024 9:37:26 GMT
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,557
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Post by iang on Apr 8, 2024 12:25:18 GMT
The tacit non-aggression pact between the Lib Dems and the Greens seems to have come to an end, although I guess that may still mean relatively little actual campaigning in each other's wards
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Dan
Animal Welfare Party
Believes we need more localism in our politics
Posts: 812
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Post by Dan on Apr 9, 2024 11:00:35 GMT
In Shirley West ward, voters have the choice of voting Monk or Haughney!
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 22,012
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Apr 9, 2024 12:50:05 GMT
In Shirley West ward, voters have the choice of voting Monk or Haughney! Is there something significant or meaningful about those two specific candidates which makes them more notable than the other 69 candidates? It would be just as valid and informative for me to say "In Elmdon ward, voters have the choice of voting Clements or Holcroft!" as if I thought it was somehow exciting, but I didn't because it isn't.
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Dan
Animal Welfare Party
Believes we need more localism in our politics
Posts: 812
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Post by Dan on Apr 9, 2024 14:15:18 GMT
It was a less-than-serious, throwaway comment on an internet forum, rather than the opening line of a Newsnight monologue. And if I have to explain the joke to you, you wouldn't find it funny anyway.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 14, 2024 12:31:34 GMT
7/10 Conservatives up this year are standing for re election. The 3 that aren’t include 2 veterans, Jim Ryan- originally Labour, then Independent, now Conservative retires after 42 years as councillor for Bickenhill. Ken Meeson ( Dorridge) is standing down after 38 years. 3/5 Greens up are restanding for election 0/2 of the Independents originally elected as Conservatives up this year are standing for re election
As stated upthread there are 3 almost certain LD gains- Elmdon, Lyndon & Olton- from the Conservatives here ( one of whom has latterly been sitting as an Independent) .
The Tories would start as favourites to win St Alpheage, where the previous councillor became an Independent The Tories losing control here this year looks very unlikely. They would have to lose 4 seats, or 5 if they don’t win St Alpheage back, and aside from Elmdon, Lyndon and Olton as mentioned above, their majority was over 20% last year in every other ward that they defend this year. Guesstimate of the result here
Con 9 (-3 from 2021, but -1 from current) Green 5 ( no change) LD 3 (+3) Ind 0 (-2)
Resulting in a Council composition of Con 28 Green 12 LD 9 Ind 2
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Solihull
May 3, 2024 14:47:21 GMT
via mobile
Post by safc26 on May 3, 2024 14:47:21 GMT
Much stronger results than expected for Conservatives so far:
Gained Shirley West from greens, held Lyndon and only just missed out in Kingshurst.
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Post by John Chanin on May 3, 2024 14:59:56 GMT
Not been paying any attention to Solihull, but Labour back on council after winning Kingshurst & Fordbridge. Liberals duly regain Olton and Elmdon, but not Lyndon where the Conservatives hold on fairly comfortably. They also take Shirley West off the Greens.
These are good results. I am wondering whether people have turned out to vote for Andy Street, boosting the local Conservative support as a by-product.
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Roger Harmer
Lib Dem
Councillor for Acocks Green in Birmingham
Posts: 238
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Post by Roger Harmer on May 3, 2024 16:16:04 GMT
Not been paying any attention to Solihull, but Labour back on council after winning Kingshurst & Fordbridge. Liberals duly regain Olton and Elmdon, but not Lyndon where the Conservatives hold on fairly comfortably. They also take Shirley West off the Greens. These are good results. I am wondering whether people have turned out to vote for Andy Street, boosting the local Conservative support as a by-product. I think that is almost certainly the case - the same thing happened in 2021.
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Post by andrewp on May 3, 2024 17:58:09 GMT
Final score here
Con 11 (+1) Green 3 (-2) LD 2 (+2) Lab 1 (+1) Ind 0 (-2)
Council is Con 30 Green 10 LD 8 Ind 2 Lab 1
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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Post by Sg1 on May 3, 2024 18:12:37 GMT
Not been paying any attention to Solihull, but Labour back on council after winning Kingshurst & Fordbridge. Liberals duly regain Olton and Elmdon, but not Lyndon where the Conservatives hold on fairly comfortably. They also take Shirley West off the Greens. These are good results. I am wondering whether people have turned out to vote for Andy Street, boosting the local Conservative support as a by-product. I think that is almost certainly the case - the same thing happened in 2021. Also noteworthy that the opposite occurs with police and crime commissioner elections. Think it's clear which of metro mayors and pcc's the public holds in greater esteem.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on May 3, 2024 18:27:56 GMT
Not been paying any attention to Solihull, but Labour back on council after winning Kingshurst & Fordbridge. Liberals duly regain Olton and Elmdon, but not Lyndon where the Conservatives hold on fairly comfortably. They also take Shirley West off the Greens. These are good results. I am wondering whether people have turned out to vote for Andy Street, boosting the local Conservative support as a by-product. I think that is almost certainly the case - the same thing happened in 2021. Lyndon 2023 LD: 1684 Con: 711 Lab: 474 TUSC: 48 Lyndon 2024 Con: 1342 LD: 1201 Lab: 565 Grn: 189 TUSC: 46 So an increase in turnout from 2917 to 3343 but obviously other factors must have been in play. The incumbent Tory looks rather young so is perhaps an energetic and effective councillor and/or campaigner Shirley West 2023 Grn: 1283 Con: 837 Lab: 609 LD: 205 Shirley West 2023 Con: 1449 Grn: 1069 Lab: 615 LD: 166 Ind: 161 Again an increase in turnout from 2934 to 3460 but again clearly not the only factor in play.
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iang
Lib Dem
Posts: 1,557
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Solihull
May 3, 2024 18:40:25 GMT
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Post by iang on May 3, 2024 18:40:25 GMT
It does seem a bit odd that we managed to gain Olton, but missed Lyndon
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