Prediction Competition - August 2023

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 15 by-elections to be held during August.

- 4 by-elections on 3 August
- 3 on 10 August
- 2 on 17 August
- 3 on 24 August
- 3 on 31 August

5 by-elections are for unitary authorities, 2 last contested in May, 1 in 2022 and 2 in 2021
3 are for county councils, all last contested in 2021
3 are for metropolitan boroughs, all last contested in May
2 are for a district council, both last contested in May
1 is for a London borough last contested in 2022
1 is for a Welsh authority last contested in 2022

Conservatives defend 5 seats, 4 following the death of the previous councillor and 1 a resignation
Labour defend 5 seats, 3 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation
Liberal Democrats defend 1 seat following a resignation
Greens defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
Upminster and Cranham Residents Association defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor
Vectis defend 1 seat following a resignation

With all SOPNs having been published, there is a full slate of 15 candidates for the Conservatives, 14 Liberal Democrats, 13 Labour, 12 Greens, 3 TUSC along with 1 apiece for Gwlad, Yorkshire Party, Social Democratic Party, Vectis and Upminster and Cranham Residents Association together with 9 Independents contesting 7 elections – a total of 71 candidates for 15 seats.

[greenman]

Given the result in 2013 I am going to predict Greens have a chance in Freebridge Lynn.

[batman]

DUDLEY, Cradley & Wollescote : LD 46 Lab 35 C 14 Green 4 TUSC 1

E.SUSSEX, Meads : LD 46 C 36 Green 10 Lab 8

NORFOLK, Freebridge Lynn : Green 41 C 39 Lab 15 LD 5

READING, Norcot : Lab 48 Green 18 C 16 LD 9 Ind 6 TUSC 3.

I am therefore predicting that Bottom will be bottom.

[johnloony]

Dudley: LD 43 Lab 34 Grn 13 Con 13 TUSC 1
East Sussex: LD 48 Con 34 Grn 11 Lab 7
Norfolk: Con 45 Grn 38 Lab 10 LD 7
Reading: Lab 59 Con 17 Grn 13 LD 7 Ind 3 TUSC 1

[kevinf]

Dudley
LibDem 47, Lab 41, Con 8, Green 3, Tusc 1
East Sussex
LibDem 47, Con 38, Green 8, Lab 7
Norfolk
Con 50, Green 37, Lab 8, LibDem 5
Reading
Lab 60, Green 20, Con 8, Ind 6, LibDem 5.5, Tusc 0.5

[Richard Cromwell]

Norcot, Reading

LAB	61%
CON	16%
GRN	10%
LDEM	7%
IND	4%
TUSC	2%

Cradley and Wollescote, Dudley

LAB	39%
LDEM	38%
CON	17%
GRN	5%
TUSC	1%

Freebridge Lynn, Norfolk

CON	40%
LAB	22%
GRN	21%
LDEM	17%

Meads, East Sussex

LDEM	62%
CON	27%
LAB	6%
GRN	5%

[Tony Otim]

Dudley: LD 40.6; Lab 38.5; Con 17.3; Grn 2.4; TUSC 1.2
East Sussex: LD 43.3; Con 42.2; Lab 7.7; Grn 6.8
Norfolk: Con 43.2; Grn 29.9; Lab 19.1; LD 7.8
Reading: lab 55.6; Con 17.4; Grn 14.1; LD 8.5; Ind 3.1; TUSC 1.3

[corradino]

Dudley, Cradley: LD 46, Lab 39, Con 10, Green 4 TUSC 1.

E Sussex, Meads: LD 53, Con 35, Green 6, Lab 6.

Norfolk, Freebridge: Con 51, Green 27, Lab 15, LD 7.

Reading, Norcot: Lab 60, Con 18, Green 10, LD 7, Ind 3.4, TUSC 1.6.

[andrewp]

Dudley. Cradley and Wollescote LD 43 Lab 39 Con 14 Green 3 TUSC 1
East Sussex, Meads, LD 49 Con 39 Lab 6 Green 6
Norfolk. Freebridge Lynn. Green 41 Con 39 Lab 15 LD 5
Reading. Norcot. Lab 58 Con 15 Green 15, LD 6 Ind 4 TUSC 2

[yellowperil]

Dudley, Cradley & Worlescote: Con 9, Lab 40. LD 45, GP 5, TUSC 1.
East Sussex, Meads: Con 40. Lab 6, LD 45,GP 9.
Norfolk, Freebridge Lynn: Con 40, Lab 15, LD 8, GP 37.
Reading, Norcot: Con 18, Lab 56, LD 8, GP 12, Ind 5, TUSC 1

[Robert Waller]

Dudley. Cradley and Wollescote LD 43 Lab 38 Con 15 Green 3 TUSC 1

East Sussex, Meads, LD 50 Con 40 Lab 5 Green 5

Norfolk. Freebridge Lynn. Green 38 Con 42 Lab 15 LD 5

Reading. Norcot. Lab 62 Con 16 Green 8, LD 8 Ind 4 TUSC 2

[peterl]

Dudley. Cradley and Wollescote LD 42 Lab 40 Con 12 Green 5 TUSC 1
East Sussex, Meads, LD 52 Con 34 Green 8 Lab 6
Norfolk. Freebridge Lynn. Con 42 Green 40 Lab 12 LD 6
Reading. Norcot. Lab 60 Green 14, Con 12, LD 8 Ind 5 TUSC 1

[rightleaning]

Dudley. Cradley and Wollescote LD 43, Lab 38, Con 13, Green 5, TUSC 1
East Sussex, Meads, LD 49, Con 35, Green 10, Lab 6,
Norfolk. Freebridge Lynn. Con 42, Green 40, Lab 12, LD 6
Reading. Norcot. Lab 60 Green 13, Con 13, LD 8, Ind 5, TUSC 1

[iainbhx]

Dudley MBC, Cradley and Wollescote: LDm 39, Lab 38, Con 18, Grn 4, TUSC 1
East Sussex CC, Meads: LDm 45, Con 42, Grn 7, Lab 6
Norfolk CC, Freebridge Lynn: Con 47, Grn 31, Lab 13, LDm 9
Reading UA, Norcot: Lab 58, Grn 20, Con 12, LDm 6, Ind 3, TUSC 1

[manchesterman]

forgot to do this last night

[robbienicoll]

12 entries to open the month, sadly no borisminor or manchesterman but welcome returns from Right Leaning, Tony Otim and Yellow Peril. All on time, but johnloony picks up 4 faults for going over in Dudley.

Cradley and Wollescote, Dudley: 11 Liberal Democrat gain from Labour, majorities ranging from 1% (iainbhx) to 11% (batman). Richard Cromwell Labour hold with majority of 1%.

Meads, East Sussex: 100% Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, majorities ranging from 1.1% (Tony Otim) to 35% (Richard Cromwell). Before Richard was 18% (corradino and peterl).

Freebridge Lynn, Norfolk: 10 Conservative hold, with andrewp and batman Green gain.

Norcot, Reading: 100% Labour hold, majorities ranging from 30% (batman) to 47% (Right Leaning).

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XZK3ItLhdwx4zbe9CPCYwKbGxYZRZWV-l9M5ZTcHerc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[johnloony]

Aug 3, 2023 22:31:08 GMT robbienicoll said:

12 entries to open the month, sadly no borisminor or manchesterman but welcome returns from Right Leaning, Tony Otim and Yellow Peril. All on time, but johnloony picks up 4 faults for going over in Dudley.

What? How? I was very careful checking my figures this time, after I made a mistake a few weeks ago. I’ve just checked my piece of paper and it says “Dudley: LD 1000 Lab 800 Con 200 Green 300 T 30” and in the next line it translates into percentages as “LD 43 Lab 34 Con 9 Grn 13 T 1”. 43+34+9+13+1=100. How is that 4 points over?

[robbienicoll]

Aug 1, 2023 13:00:09 GMT johnloony said:

Dudley: LD 43 Lab 34 Grn 13 Con 13 TUSC 1
East Sussex: LD 48 Con 34 Grn 11 Lab 7
Norfolk: Con 45 Grn 38 Lab 10 LD 7
Reading: Lab 59 Con 17 Grn 13 LD 7 Ind 3 TUSC 1

I'm assuming the bolded bit was the issue, sorry 

[Robert Waller]

robbienicoll, may I point out that at present the total faults (and ranked) on your spreadsheet do not appear to correlate at all with the individual faults for the various contests.
Check, for example, rightleaning and myself ...

In fact all from peterl down

Comparing them with my figures, I think the second half of the table has all the right numbers but next to the wrong names, begging the pardon of andrewteale (and Eric Morecambe, of course!)

[johnloony]

Aug 4, 2023 8:33:39 GMT robbienicoll said:

Aug 1, 2023 13:00:09 GMT johnloony said:

Dudley: LD 43 Lab 34 Grn 13 Con 13 TUSC 1
East Sussex: LD 48 Con 34 Grn 11 Lab 7
Norfolk: Con 45 Grn 38 Lab 10 LD 7
Reading: Lab 59 Con 17 Grn 13 LD 7 Ind 3 TUSC 1

I'm assuming the bolded bit was the issue, sorry 

I don’t see why I should be penalised just because I didn’t manage to transcribe the numbers correctly from my piece of paper onto the screen. This is political correctness gone mad! I demand an election petition, with all costs to be paid for by Australian Swing Voter.