peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,249 
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Post by peterl on Apr 29, 2023 22:17:00 GMT
Welcome to my 2023 local elections prediction competition. The format I have chosen this year is as follows: I have picked out two of the more interesting councils in each region. For each, you need to predict how many seats will be won by each party. Various localist and independent factions may be grouped together or not as you wish. For each council, you start with 100 points and lose 1 point for every seat that is wrong. You will lose an additional 10 points if you get the largest party wrong.
The councils I have chosen are:
South West
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (76 seats)
South Gloucestershire (61 seats)
South East
New Forest (48 seats)
West Berkshire (43 seats)
East of England
East Cambridgeshire (28 seats)
Thurrock (49 seats)
East Midlands
Amber Valley (42 seats)
Rutland (27 seats)
West Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent (44 seats)
Worcester (35 seats)
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Riding of Yorkshire (67 seats)
Sheffield (84 seats)
North East
Hartlepool (36 seats)
Sunderland (75 seats)
North West
Bolton (60 seats)
Burnley (45 seats)
The deadline is 10pm Thursday, and it will be marked sometime over the following weekend. Good luck to all!
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 189
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Post by haroldthepolitician on May 1, 2023 9:51:33 GMT
Cant believe you didn't pick North Somerset. Gotta be the most interesting up!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,351
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Post by Tony Otim on May 1, 2023 15:37:31 GMT
To be updated as I go: South WestBournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (76 seats) Various Ind/Localist 24; Con 20; LD 19; Lab 9; Grn 4South Gloucestershire (61 seats) LD 22; Con 20; Lab 17; Ind 2South EastNew Forest (48 seats) Con 20; LD 20; Grn 5; Ind 2; Lab 1West Berkshire (43 seats) LD 26; Con 15; Grn 2 East of EnglandEast Cambridgeshire (28 seats) Con 14; LD 14Thurrock (49 seats) This Third: Con 6; Lab 6; Ind 4 to leave: Con 28; Lab 16; Ind 5East MidlandsAmber Valley (42 seats) Lab 22; Con 14; Grn 5; LD 1Rutland (27 seats) LD 11; Ind 9; Con 5; Grn 1; Lab 1West MidlandsStoke-on-Trent (44 seats) Lab 22; Con 13; Ind 9Worcester (35 seats) This Third: Lab 4; Grn 3; Con 2; LD 2 to give overall: Lab 13; Con 10; Grn 8; LD 4Yorkshire and the HumberEast Riding of Yorkshire (67 seats) Con 33; LD 16; INd 9; Lab 7; YP 2Sheffield (84 seats) North EastHartlepool (36 seats) Sunderland (75 seats) North WestBolton (60 seats) Burnley (45 seats) The deadline is 10pm Thursday, and it will be marked sometime over the following weekend. Good luck to all! |
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Post by johnloony on May 4, 2023 14:36:59 GMT
South Norfolk
Wymondham Central
I predict: Con 600, 580 Lab 440, 400 Green 320, 280 Ref 80
Mulbarton & Stoke Holy Cross
I predict: LD 1000, 900, 850 Con 740, 700, 680 Lab 440, 420, 400
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Post by manchesterman on May 4, 2023 20:42:19 GMT
Is anyone else playing??? South WestBournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (76 seats) : Con 22, LD 19, Various IND 23 (incl Poole people 7), Lab 8, Green 4 South Gloucestershire (61 seats) : Con 24, LD 19, Lab 18 South EastNew Forest (48 seats) : Con 24, LD 18, Green 2, IND 4 West Berkshire (43 seats) : LD 21, Con 17, Green 4, Lab 1 East of EnglandEast Cambridgeshire (28 seats) : LD 17, Con 11 Thurrock (49 seats) : Con 25, Lab 20, IND 4 East MidlandsAmber Valley (42 seats) : Con22, Lab 19, Green 4 [acc to LEAP there are 45 seats?] Rutland (27 seats) : Con 10, IND 8, LD 7, Lab 1, Green 1 West MidlandsStoke-on-Trent (44 seats) : Lab 21, Con 11, IND 12 Worcester (35 seats) : Lab 14, Con 12, Green 6, LD 3 Yorkshire and the HumberEast Riding of Yorkshire (67 seats) : Con 39, Lab 5, LD 11, IND 10, Yorkshire 2 (so possibly counts as IND 12?) Sheffield (84 seats) : Lab 43, LD 26, Green 15 North EastHartlepool (36 seats) : Lab 14, Con 10, IND 12 Sunderland (75 seats) : Lab 46, Con 13, LD 15, Green 1 North WestBolton (60 seats) : Lab 21, Con 18, LD 6, IND 15 Burnley (45 seats) : Lab 21, Con 5, LD 8, Green 6, IND 5 |
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Post by johnloony on May 4, 2023 22:26:16 GMT
Nice to see such a massive turnout in the bompetition. Do i get the silver medal for the second best prediction?
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Post by manchesterman on May 6, 2023 21:45:30 GMT
Did I win then?  |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,249
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Post by peterl on May 6, 2023 22:15:31 GMT
Did I win then? As Tony Otim missed five and will score 0 for those ones, it looks highly probable. I'll tally it up properly tomorrow. If anyone who didn't enter would care to say why, it might be useful next time. |
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haroldthepolitician
Labour
'You can be just what you want to be, Just as long as you don't try and compete with me' - Jarvis
Posts: 189
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Post by haroldthepolitician on May 6, 2023 22:56:27 GMT
Did I win then? As Tony Otim missed five and will score 0 for those ones, it looks highly probable. I'll tally it up properly tomorrow. If anyone who didn't enter would care to say why, it might be useful next time. I accidentally deleted my predictions 😳 |
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,249
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Post by peterl on May 8, 2023 20:30:54 GMT
South West
Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (76 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 34 = 66, manchesterman 100 - 36 = 64: Tony Otim +2
South Gloucestershire (61 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 17 = 83, manchesterman 100 - 13 = 87: manchesterman +4
South East
New Forest (48 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 17 = 83, manchesterman 100 - 8 = 92: manchesterman +9
West Berkshire (43 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 8 = 92, manchesterman 100 - 18 = 82: Tony Otim +10
East of England
East Cambridgeshire (28 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 2 = 98, manchesterman 100 - 18 = 82: Tony Otim +16
Thurrock (49 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 6 = 94, manchesterman 100 - 2 = 98: manchesterman +4
East Midlands
Amber Valley (42 seats) (There are 42, boundary changes this year, was 45 previously): Tony Otim 100 - 12 = 88, manchesterman 100 - 33 = 67: Tony Otim +21
Rutland (27 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 3 = 97, manchesterman 100 - 20 = 80: Tony Otim +17
West Midlands
Stoke-on-Trent (44 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 16 = 84, manchesterman 100 - 22 = 78: Tony Otim +6
Worcester (35 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 4 = 96, manchesterman 100 - 10 = 90: Tony Otim +6
Yorkshire and the Humber
East Riding of Yorkshire (67 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 14 = 86, manchesterman 100 - 24 = 76: Tony Otim +10
Sheffield (84 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 8 = 92: manchesterman +92
North East
Hartlepool (36 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 12 = 88: manchesterman +88
Sunderland (75 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 2 = 98: manchesterman +98
North West
Bolton (60 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 10 = 90: manchesterman +90
Burnley (45 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 6 = 94: manchesterman +94
manchesterman wins by a margin of +391. Out of the "contested elections", Tony Otim led by +71, so a shame for him he did not finish. Needless to say johnloony's entry is disqualified for predicting races not on the list.
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Post by samdwebber on May 9, 2023 11:32:00 GMT
I read a BBC article that said Reform UK only won 6 seats but was unclear how many were gained in defections and how many Reform candidates actually won last week? Any ideas which Councils have Reform UK cllrs now and who won last week?!
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Post by Robert Waller on May 9, 2023 11:48:54 GMT
I read a BBC article that said Reform UK only won 6 seats but was unclear how many were gained in defections and how many Reform candidates actually won last week? Any ideas which Councils have Reform UK cllrs now and who won last week?! I would suggest re-posting this in this thread vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16654/2023-local-elections-general-threadBut off the top of my head I believe Reform returned 6 councillors in Derby, and maybe none anywhere else. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on May 9, 2023 12:15:36 GMT
Did I win then? As Tony Otim missed five and will score 0 for those ones, it looks highly probable. I'll tally it up properly tomorrow. If anyone who didn't enter would care to say why, it might be useful next time. As someone who doesn't enter these things but still follows them with interest, maybe you could announce it sooner next time? (especially since it was quite large scale) |
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Post by andrewp on May 9, 2023 12:18:58 GMT
Did I win then? As Tony Otim missed five and will score 0 for those ones, it looks highly probable. I'll tally it up properly tomorrow. If anyone who didn't enter would care to say why, it might be useful next time. I would say announce it after close of nominations if possible . I feel I would need a bit more time to do justice to a whole council prediction. I did think of entering but didn’t have time last week. |
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Post by Robert Waller on May 9, 2023 12:22:41 GMT
Did I win then? As Tony Otim missed five and will score 0 for those ones, it looks highly probable. I'll tally it up properly tomorrow. If anyone who didn't enter would care to say why, it might be useful next time. I also think it was quite complicated and needed a lot of work. I guess you would have got a much larger entry with a simple 'predict the number of seat gains and losses for each party', and maybe also changes in control if you want it a little more developed. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on May 9, 2023 12:24:58 GMT
I read a BBC article that said Reform UK only won 6 seats but was unclear how many were gained in defections and how many Reform candidates actually won last week? Any ideas which Councils have Reform UK cllrs now and who won last week?! I would suggest re-posting this in this thread vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16654/2023-local-elections-general-threadBut off the top of my head I believe Reform returned 6 councillors in Derby, and maybe none anywhere else. That is correct, just those six - though they did have a few other near misses, in Amber Valley especially. |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,351
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Post by Tony Otim on May 9, 2023 12:25:25 GMT
Yeah - I had a lot of other pressures coming up in the middle of last week, so no time to finish...
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,672
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Post by J.G.Harston on May 9, 2023 12:26:59 GMT
As Tony Otim missed five and will score 0 for those ones, it looks highly probable. I'll tally it up properly tomorrow. If anyone who didn't enter would care to say why, it might be useful next time. I would say announce it after close of nominations if possible . I feel I would need a bit more time to do justice to a whole council prediction. I did think of entering but didn’t have time last week. I posted my prediction for Sheffield in the Sheffield thread, and completely forgot to post it in the Prediction thread! |
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Post by samdwebber on May 9, 2023 13:04:39 GMT
I read a BBC article that said Reform UK only won 6 seats but was unclear how many were gained in defections and how many Reform candidates actually won last week? Any ideas which Councils have Reform UK cllrs now and who won last week?! I would suggest re-posting this in this thread vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/16654/2023-local-elections-general-threadBut off the top of my head I believe Reform returned 6 councillors in Derby, and maybe none anywhere else. Thanks Robert - Id missed that thread! Immediately found this v helpful tweet with their best results, but yes 6 seats in Derby and none elsewhere |
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Post by manchesterman on May 10, 2023 16:33:30 GMT
South West Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole (76 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 34 = 66, manchesterman 100 - 36 = 64: Tony Otim +2 South Gloucestershire (61 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 17 = 83, manchesterman 100 - 13 = 87: manchesterman +4 South East New Forest (48 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 17 = 83, manchesterman 100 - 8 = 92: manchesterman +9 West Berkshire (43 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 8 = 92, manchesterman 100 - 18 = 82: Tony Otim +10 East of England East Cambridgeshire (28 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 2 = 98, manchesterman 100 - 18 = 82: Tony Otim +16 Thurrock (49 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 6 = 94, manchesterman 100 - 2 = 98: manchesterman +4 East Midlands Amber Valley (42 seats) (There are 42, boundary changes this year, was 45 previously): Tony Otim 100 - 12 = 88, manchesterman 100 - 33 = 67: Tony Otim +21 Rutland (27 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 3 = 97, manchesterman 100 - 20 = 80: Tony Otim +17 West Midlands Stoke-on-Trent (44 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 16 = 84, manchesterman 100 - 22 = 78: Tony Otim +6 Worcester (35 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 4 = 96, manchesterman 100 - 10 = 90: Tony Otim +6 Yorkshire and the Humber East Riding of Yorkshire (67 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 14 = 86, manchesterman 100 - 24 = 76: Tony Otim +10 Sheffield (84 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 8 = 92: manchesterman +92 North East Hartlepool (36 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 12 = 88: manchesterman +88 Sunderland (75 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 2 = 98: manchesterman +98 North West Bolton (60 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 10 = 90: manchesterman +90 Burnley (45 seats): Tony Otim 100 - 100 = 0, manchesterman 100 - 6 = 94: manchesterman +94 manchesterman wins by a margin of +391. Out of the "contested elections", Tony Otim led by +71, so a shame for him he did not finish. Needless to say johnloony's entry is disqualified for predicting races not on the list.
i would like to offer up thanks to peterl for coming up with this competition. Whilst it may not have been perfect in its design, it was the only locals comp we had, so kudos to him for putting the effort in. [Also I actually won something, albeit by default, so there's that too] |
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