Local Council by-election 17th May 2023

[Tony Otim]

A Wednesday one:

STROUD DC; Painswick & Upton (Con resigned)
Candidates:
LUFF, Gary Alan (Green)
PATHAK-SEN, Ela (Labour)
SAVAGE, Roz (Liberal Democrat)
WILLIAMS, Sue (Conservative)

2021: Con 1408, 1279, 1279; Grn 1128, 1128; Lab 785
2016: Con 1350, 1350, 1224; Grn 809; Lab 680; UKIP 397
(3 times in 2 elections is a remarkably high incidence rate for parties getting the exact same number of votes for 2 candidates).

Ela Pathak-Sen was the Labour candidate last time. Sue Williams (Con) is the sitting county councillor for Bisley & Painswick division (which contains this ward).

Current Council: Con 19; Grn 13; Lab 6; Ind Left Grp 5; Comm Ind 4; LD 3; 1 vacancy

[phil156]

Stroud is counting on the night too

[European Lefty]

I meant to write a profile for this one but clearly forgot. Might do it later this evening

[European Lefty]

Apr 1, 2021 17:02:58 GMT European Lefty said:

Painswick & Upton: We start in the north east corner of the district. This ward is centred on the town of Painswick, "the Queen of the Cotswolds" and also contains the village of Upton St Leonard on the Gloucester border. This is an incredibly wealthy area, one of the richest of a rich district. In 2010 over 75% of houses in both predecessor wards were owner-occupied, and that number will only have increased. Education levels are high with over 50% having a degree. This is a liberal area although not quite to Stroud levels, though it certainly voted remain. It is the kind of Tory area that voted remain by a wide margin but has since stuck with the Tories and shown no signs of wavering. The Greens are a clear second but are highly unlikely to challenge; if there is ever a LibDem revival in the district, look for it here. Prediction: The three certainties are life are death, taxes, and Tories winning Painswick. 3x Con HOLD

This is my short profile from the all-out elections in 2021. My prediction proved correct, though by a far narrower margin than I expected. Owner occupation, the percentage of people with degrees, and the percentage of people employed in managerial, administrative or professional occupations are well above average, whilst renting, people with no qualifications, and routine and semi-routine occupations are much lower. Painswick and parts of Upton St Leonard's are noticeably more deprived than the ward as a whole, but not by comparison to the country at large. I suspect that what kept the Conservatives in here is Upton, which although still relatively distinct is increasingly looking like a suburban area of Gloucester. 

On the face of it the Greens facing increasing competition from other non-Conservative parties forces 2x Grn 1x Lab voters to choose and should secure this ward for the Tories. However:
1. The Tories are in a much worse position now than they were in May 2021
2. The Greens can cow campaign as the party actually running the (broadly popular) council administration
3. There are clearly a significant number of Green voters who are unwilling to vote Labour. These voters do not have to choose; they have already chosen. The Tory with a large personal vote appears to have collected some of those spare votes and his personal vote will not be a factor this time. 
4. A lot of the Green voters are former Tories and many will continue to vote as such at general elections (and almost certainly did in 2019).

Now, I would hesitate to call this. I have been away and this is not my part of the district by any means. A Conservative hold would be a strong but not stunning result; while the Greens will be disappointed if they don't gain it

[Chris from Brum]

medium.com/britainelects/previewing-the-painswick-and-upton-gloucestershire-by-election-of-wednesday-17th-may-2023-803dfb8fa230

[batman]

Julian Slade (who gets a mention in Andrew's Preview) was related to Adrian Slade, who was the Liberal GLC member for my constituency from 1981 until the authority's abolition 5 years later.

[polupolu]

May 17, 2023 14:47:32 GMT batman said:

Julian Slade (who gets a mention in Andrew's Preview) was related to Adrian Slade, who was the Liberal GLC member for my constituency from 1981 until the authority's abolition 5 years later.

And Adrian was also a gifted musician, as anyone who went to Assemblies can attest.

[batman]

they are a musical family.

[finsobruce]

May 17, 2023 14:47:32 GMT batman said:

Julian Slade (who gets a mention in Andrew's Preview) was related to Adrian Slade, who was the Liberal GLC member for my constituency from 1981 until the authority's abolition 5 years later.

Those were the Salad Days of the Liberals on the GLC.

[batman]

well not really seeing that that was the only seat they won

[Adam in Stroud]

Turnout 42.8%

[Adam in Stroud]

Green 1168
Conservative 817
Liberal Democrats 381
Labour 180

[Davıd Boothroyd]

STROUD Painswick and Upton

LUFF, Gary Alan (Green Party) 1,168
WILLIAMS, Susan Evelyn Laura (The Conservative Party Candidate) 817
SAVAGE, Rosalind Elizabeth Adriana (Liberal Democrats) 381
PATHAK-SEN, Ela (Labour Party) 180

Spoiled ballots 3

[batman]

Perhaps I should have expected Labour to do badly in the light of their very serious ructions in this district. Some of it will be vote-squeeze by the Greeens though. Not a bad result for the LDs

[European Lefty]

May 17, 2023 22:53:03 GMT batman said:

Perhaps I should have expected Labour to do badly in the light of their very serious ructions in this district. Some of it will be vote-squeeze by the Greeens though. Not a bad result for the LDs

This is one of Labour's weakest wards in the entire district. Kingswood and Severn may be naturally weaker but they don't have a competitive Green Party so it's easier for Labour. I suspect a lot of the Labour votes in 2021 were spare Green votes rather than actual Labour votes.

The LD vote is interesting. Their weaknesses in areas like this on Stroud is somewhat artificial, but they really are extremely weak so this is a very good result for them

[Sibboleth]

Labour never managed over 20% in the old Painswick ward and the only time they managed over three hundred votes was when the election was on the same day as the 2010 General Election.

[Adam in Stroud]

May 17, 2023 22:57:14 GMT European Lefty said:

May 17, 2023 22:53:03 GMT batman said:

Perhaps I should have expected Labour to do badly in the light of their very serious ructions in this district. Some of it will be vote-squeeze by the Greeens though. Not a bad result for the LDs

This is one of Labour's weakest wards in the entire district. Kingswood and Severn may be naturally weaker but they don't have a competitive Green Party so it's easier for Labour. I suspect a lot of the Labour votes in 2021 were spare Green votes rather than actual Labour votes.

The LD vote is interesting. Their weaknesses in areas like this on Stroud is somewhat artificial, but they really are extremely weak so this is a very good result for them

Our weakness in Stroud over the last decade or so (predating Coalition really) is linked to lack of candidates. This time out we had what I consider by some distance the most dynamic candidate in a reasonably strong field (the Conservative being well-liked across the political spectrum).

We suffered from the obvious and correct Green argument that they were the established challengers and from having to start from scratch, which was especially tricky with postal voters.

The Conservative loss will be helpful to the minority administration.

[Adam in Stroud]

Would also say that at verification the Postal Vote  appeared to be about 50:50 Conservative and Green. Our vote was almost entirely "on the day" voters on whom we'd had a chance to campaign - we're fairly pleased with that response though a bit disappointed not to have been able to continue for another couple of weeks.

I thought the Labour vote share wasn't too shabby given that, as European Lefty says, this is not a strong ward for them (in fact if you plonked a political correspondent down in the middle of Painswick or Cranham and asked them to spot a likely Labour voter they'd probably laugh in your face.)

[Tony Otim]

Decent result, I'll take that.

I do wonder if the Lib Dems may have hit the Conservative vote a bit more than the Green vote? I don't know what our local correspondents think?

[yellowperil]

Indeed.One wonders whether the Tories might have just hung on in a straight Con/Green fight? It sounds as though on postal votes it was just about even between the two, which might be a good indicator of how a straight fight might have gone?