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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 15:26:31 GMT
The recent 40th anniversary of the Bermondsey by-election (which was the first parliamentary by-election I was properly aware of) made me think about my experience of the by-elections, rather than the results themselves. I have calculated some of the voting statistics as well, just to give more context. I have divided the by-elections (of which there are 161 in total) into 6 categories:
A: Under the Conservative government (1983-1997) of which there are 58
B: Under the Labour government (1997-2010) of which there are 36
C: Under the Coalition government (2010-2015) of which there are 19
D: Under the Conservative government (2015-2023) of which there are 27
and, separate from those categories:
E: the 15 by-elections in Northern Ireland on 23rd January 1986, which are of a different character completely (15)
F: other by-elections in Northern Ireland (6)
I decided to separate out the Great Britain by-elections into the 4 categories, so that other analysis about swings and whatever can be done separately (i.e. how people vote depends on which party (parties) is (are) in government.
I have done E and F separately so that their different party systems can be analysed separately.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 15:37:56 GMT
The list of by-elections is as follows:
Category A (1983-1997)
24.02.83 1. Bermondsey
24.03.83 2. Darlington
28.07.83 3. Penrith & the Border
01.03.84 4. Chesterfield
03.05.84 5. Cynon Valley
03.05.84 6. Stafford
03.05.84 7. Surrey SW
14.06.84 8. Portsmouth South
12.12.84 9. Enfield Southgate
04.07.85 10. Brecon & Radnor
06.12.85 11. Tyne Bridge
10.04.86 27. Fulham
08.05.86 28. Ryedale
08.05.86 29. Derbyshire West
17.07.86 30. Newcastle-under-Lyme
13.11.86 31. Knowsley North
26.02.87 32. Greenwich
12.03.87 33. Truro
14.07.88 34. Kensington
10.11.88 35. Glasgow Govan
15.12.88 36. Epping Forest
23.02.89 37. Richmond (Yorkshire)
23.02.89 38. Pontypridd
04.05.89 39. Vale of Glamorgan
15.06.89 40. Glasgow Central
15.06.89 41. Vauxhall
19.12.89 42. Staffordshire Mid
24.05.90 44. Bootle
27.09.90 45. Knowsley South
18.10.90 46. Eastbourne
08.11.90 47. Bootle
08.11.90 48. Bradford North
29.11.90 49. Paisley North
29.11.90 50. Paisley South
07.03.91 51. Ribble Valley
04.04.91 52. Neath
16.05.91 53. Monmouth
04.07.91 54. Liverpool Walton
07.11.91 55. Kincardine & Deeside
07.11.91 56. Hemsworth
07.11.91 57. Langbaurgh
06.05.93 58. Newbury
29.07.93 59. Christchurch
05.05.94 60. Rotherham
09.06.94 61. Barking
09.06.94 62. Eastleigh
09.06.94 63. Newham NE
09.06.94 64. Bradford South
09.06.94 65. Dagenham
30.06.94 66. Monklands East
15.12.94 67. Dudley West
16.02.95 68. Islwyn
25.05.95 69. Perth & Kinross
27.07.95 71. Littleborough & Saddleworth
01.02.96 72. Hemsworth
11.04.96 73. Staffordshire SE
12.12.96 74. Barnsley East
27.02.97 75. Wirral South
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 15:54:00 GMT
Category B (1997-2010)
31.07.97 76. Uxbridge
06.11.97 77. Paisley South
20.11.97 78. Beckenham
20.11.97 79. Winchester
10.06.99 80. Leeds Central
22.07.99 81. Eddisbury
23.09.99 82. Wigan
23.09.99 83. Hamilton South
25.11.99 84. Kensington & Chelsea
03.02.00 85. Ceredigion
04.05.00 86. Romsey
22.06.00 87. Tottenham
23.11.00 89. West Bromwich West
23.11.00 90. Preston
23.11.00 91. Glasgow Anniesland
21.12.00 92. Falkirk West
22.11.01 93. Ipswich
14.02.02 94. Ogmore
18.09.03 95. Brent East
15.07.04 96. Birmingham Hodge Hill
15.07.04 97. Leicester South
30.09.04 98. Hartlepool
14.07.05 99. Cheadle
29.09.05 100. Livingston
09.02.06 101. Dunfermline & W Fife
29.06.06 102. Blaenau Gwent
29.06.06 103. Bromley & Chislehurst
19.07.07 104. Sedgefield
19.07.07 105. Ealing Southall
22.05.08 106. Crewe & Nantwich
26.06.08 107. Henley
10.07.08 108. Haltemprice & Howden
24.07.08 109. Glasgow East
06.11.08 110. Glenrothes
23.07.09 111. Norwich North
12.11.09 112. Glasgow NE
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 15:59:10 GMT
Category C (2010-2015)
13.01.11 113. Oldham East & Saddleworth
03.03.11 114. Barnsley Central
05.05.11 115. Leicester South
30.06.11 117. Inverclyde
15.12.11 118. Feltham & Heston
29.03.12 119. Bradford West
15.11.12 120. Corby
15.11.12 121. Manchester Central
15.11.12 122. Cardiff South & Penarth
29.11.12 123. Rotherham
29.11.12 124. Croydon North
29.11.12 125. Middlesbrough
28.02.13 126. Eastleigh
02.05.13 128. South Shields
13.02.14 129. Wythenshawe & Sale East
05.06.14 130. Newark
09.10.14 131. Heywood & Middleton
09.10.14 132. Clacton
20.11.14 133. Rochester & Strood
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 16:05:54 GMT
Category D (2015-2023)
03.12.15 134. Oldham West & Royton
05.05.16 135. Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough
05.05.16 136. Ogmore
16.06.16 137. Tooting
20.10.16 138. Batley & Spen
20.10.16 139. Witney
01.12.16 140. Richmond Park
08.12.16 141. Sleaford & North Hykeham
23.02.17 142. Stoke-on-Trent Central
23.02.17 143. Copeland
14.06.18 145. Lewisham East
04.04.19 146. Newport West
06.06.19 147. Peterborough
01.08.19 148. Brecon & Radnor
06.05.21 149. Hartlepool
13.05.21 150. Airdrie & Shotts
17.06.21 151. Chesham & Amersham
01.07.21 152. Batley & Spen
02.12.21 153. Old Bexley & Sidcup
16.12.21 154. Shropshire North
03.02.22 155. Southend West
03.03.22 156. Birmingham Erdington
23.06.22 157. Tiverton & Honiton
23.06.22 158. Wakefield
01.12.22 159. City of Chester
15.12.22 160. Stretford & Urmston
09.02.23 161. Lancashire West
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 16:10:15 GMT
Category E (Northern Ireland, 23rd January 1986)
12. Antrim East
13. Antrim North
14. Antrim South
15. Belfast East
16. Belfast North
17. Belfast South
18. Down North
19. Down South
20. Fermanagh & South Tyrone
21. Lagan valley
22. Londonderry East
23. Newry & Armagh
24. Strangford
25. Ulster Mid
26. Upper Bann
Category F (Northern Ireland)
17.05.90 43. Upper Bann
15.06.95 70. Down North
21.09.00 88. Antrim South
09.06.11 116. Belfast West
07.03.13 127. Mid Ulster
03.05.18 144. West Tyrone
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 16:48:16 GMT
How I normally "do" a parliamentary by-election is: get a list of the candidates beforehand, stay up late to watch the declaration of the result on TV, write it down as it is being declared. I think that I have done it normally in 123 of the 161 occasions. The exceptions, for a variety of reasons, are as follows:
4 by-elections where I was too young to be allowed to stay up late and watch:
1. Bermondsey
2. Darlington
3. Penrith & the Border
4. Chesterfield
I remember that on the night of the Chesterfield by-election, I intended to stay awake late and sneak downstairs to watch the declaration - but I fell asleep and woke up normally in the morning.
3 by-elections where I was a candidate in the by-election, so I was at the count and on the stage for the declaration.
103. Bromley & Chislehurst
105. Ealing Southall
124. Croydon North
4 by-elections which were on the same day as the 3 where I was a candidate.
102. Blaenau Gwent
104. Sedgefield
123. Rotherham
125. Middlesbrough
I got the result of Sedgefield from Jon Craig of Sky News in the media room during the count at Ealing.
The fifteen by-elections in Northern Ireland in 1986 were counted in the daytime when I was at school. I remember that I had not even been able to find any list of candidates for them beforehand (i.e. the lists were not published in the Daily Telegraph as they normally would have been) and I even had difficulty finding the results afterwards. I think that I knew in advance that 4 of them had a token pro-Agreement candidate in them in order to avoid an unopposed return, and I knew that about 4 of them were being contested by the main parties properly, but otherwise I didn't know which candidates were standing. The first information I found out was from John Craven's Newsround on the Friday afternoon, when it was vaguely mentioned that Ian Paisley had got 97% of the votes in his constituency.
The result of 29. Derbyshire West was declared at 6:30am after three recounts; I missed it because I had gone to bed at about 3am after the first recount. I just got too tired and gave up waiting.
The result of 33. Truro was declared in the daytime when I was at school, so I found the result only after I got home.
I heard the result of 38. Newbury from listening to the radio. The BBC TV coverage had stopped at 4am, and I think the result came about 10 minutes later.
60. Rotherham and 86. Romsey were while I was at local election counts in Croydon, so I wasn't able to watch them on TV normally.
I was at the count for 95. Brent East (although not as a candidate).
82. Wigan and 83. Hamilton South were while I was at the OMRLP conference in Devon, so I couldn't watch them normally. I had not even managed to find the list of candidates for Hamilton South beforehand. I remember asking Alan Hope if we (i.e. the OMRLP) had a candidate in Hamilton South, and he hadn't even been aware of the by-election happening at all. When I got home afterwards and watched the video which I had set to record, I discovered that the Hamilton South result was covered incompletely and inadequately by a couple of relatively junior presenters (not the usual ones) who seemed to be listening to a separate stream of coverage from Scotland. When a graphic of the "result" was put up on screen, it completely omitted to mention the SSP (which was in 3rd place) and it only showed the numbers not the percentages.
108. Haltemprice & Howden was not covered properly by the BBC. Their microphone was not working, and we could only hear the declaration as a vague distorted muffle in the background. The BBC production team's solution to the sound problem was not to shut up and turn up the volume in an attempt to listen, but was to tell the presenter (Ian Watson) to start waffling to the camera during the actual declaration itself. He should have had the common sense to shut up and let us listen - regardless of what the producers were telling him to do - but he didn't. I have had a strong dislike of Ian Watson ever since.
119. Bradford West was not being covered properly by the BBC at all. The News channel kept going off to other subjects, and they didn't concentrate on the by-election properly at all. It was particularly annoying because it was the occasion of George Galloway's sensational victory, which had been unpredicted until the actual evening of the by-election itself. The BBC's coverage of Bradford West (i.e. its lack of) was the last straw for me. Thereafter, and ever since, I have relied on watching Sky news for parliamentary by-election results. I think that at that time (2012) I didn't yet realise that the Sky News channel was available on Freeview without needing a subscription, otherwise I would have switched over from the BBC to watch it.
I think (but to be honest I can't even remember) that the results from 43. Upper Bann (1989) and 70. Down North (1995) may have been daytime counts, and/or were not broadcast properly on the BBC, so I may have missed them for the same reason as the other NI by-election.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 16:55:39 GMT
As well as the three by-election in which I was a candidate, I also campaigned in 84. Kensington & Chelsea (I delivered about 2,000 leaflets for UKIP), 133. Rochester & Strood (I delivered about 300 leaflet in one afternoon with Gavin Barwell and a few others from Croydon) and 95. Brent East.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 17:20:19 GMT
Results, total of: Category A (1983-1997)
Labour 811,409 (37.4%)
Lib/SDP/Lib Dem 603,529 (27.9%)
Conservative 544,519 (25.1%)
SNP 74,689 (3.4%)
SDP(a) 28,162 (1.3%)
Plaid Cymru 26,823 (1.2%)
Green(b) 16,497 (0.8%)
OMRLP 12,020 (0.6%)
UKIP(c) 8,250 (0.4%)
Liberal(d) 3,189 (0.1%)
National Front 2,720 (0.1%)
Socialist Labour Party 2,298 (0.1%)
British National Party 1,627 (0.1%)
Communist Party of Great Britain(e) 1,245 (0.1%)
Revolutionary Communist Party 1,111(f) (0.1%)
Others 28,812 (1.3%)
Total 2,166,900
a. continuing / Owenite SDP after 1988
b. including "Ecology" before 1985
c. including "Anti-Maastricht Anti-Federalist League" in 1993
d. continuing Liberal Party after 1989
e. including the 33 votes for the Communist Party of Great Britain (Provisional Central Committee) in 58. Newbury, which is arguably a different organisation from the CPGB which dissolved itself / split in 1991, albeit that it aspires to continue / rebuild the same name and identity of the party
f. The RCP had five candidates. Four of them got 38, 91, 141 and 177 votes, but the other got 664 votes in 31. Knowsley North. It occurs to me (I don't think I noticed before) that the RCP candidate's name was Hallsworth, and the Labour candidate's name was Howarth - so it is possible that a few hundred semi-literate Labour supporters might have voted for the RCP by mistake without noticing the names properly.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 17:45:08 GMT
Results, total of: Category B (1997-2010)
Labour 314,110 (31.7%)
Conservative 263,169 (26.6%)
Lib Dem 227,906 (23.0%)
SNP 71,726 (7.2%)
UKIP 17,847 (1.8%)
Plaid Cymru 16,298 (1.6%)
Green 13,734 (1.4%)
Independent (Blaenau Gwent) 12,543 (1.3%)
British National Party 6,919 (0.7%)
Respect 6,166 (0.6%)
Scottish Socialist Party 6,140 (0.6%)
Socialist Alliance 3,119 (0.3%)
OMRLP 3,004 (0.3%)
National Front 2,448 (0.2%)
Socialist Labour Party 2,036 (0.2%)
Others 23,121 (2.3%)
Total 990,286
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Apr 14, 2023 17:46:56 GMT
First by-election I closely followed: 1. Southwark, Bermondsey
By-elections which formed part of a question in my 'A' Level politics exam: 5. Cynon Valley and 7. Surrey SW
Constituencies which I specifically visited during the by-election campaign: 32. Greenwich and 34. Kensington
Weirdest drunken celebration of the result: 35. Glasgow Govan
Most pointless example of rushing home from the pub to see the result: 45. Knowsley South
By-election which my staying up for the result caused an altercation with my then partner who was too stupid to appreciate how important and interesting it was: 71. Littleborough & Saddleworth
By-elections I campaigned in: 132. Clacton and 133. Rochester & Strood
By-election which gave me a day off school: -17 Hertfordshire SW
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 17:54:58 GMT
Results, total of: Category C (2010-2015)
Labour 218,190 (40.1%)
UKIP 104,583 (19.2%)
Conservative 104,539 (19.2%)
Lib Dem 49,951 (9.2%)
Respect 21,008 (3.9%)
SNP 9,280 (1.7%)
Green 9,177 (1.7%)
BNP 8,220 (1.5%)
OMRLP 2,262 (0.4%)
Plaid Cymru 1,854 (0.3%)
Others 15,691 (2.9%)
Total 544,755
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 18:08:07 GMT
Results, total of: Category D (2015-2023)
Labour 251,303 (33.0%)
Conservative 228,899 (30.1%)
Lib Dem 137,577* (18.1%)
UKIP 33,078 (4.3%)
Independent (Richmand Park) 18,638 (2.4%)
Green 15,651 (2.1%)
Brexit 13,132 (1.7%)
SNP 10,129 (1.3%)
Workers Party of Britain 8,264 (1.1%)
Reform 7,393 (1.0%)
Plaid Cymru 4,868 (0.6%)
OMRLP 2,387 (0.3%)
Yorkshire 1,998 (0.3%)
SDP 732 (0.1%)
BNP 672 (0.1%)
Others 26,137 (3.4%)
Total 760,858
* very efficient vote distribution: 96,347 (70%) of the 137,577 Lib Dem votes were for candidates who won the by-elections.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 18:26:26 GMT
Results, total of, Category E (Northern Ireland 1986)
UUP 302,198 (51.7%)
DUP 85,239 (14.6%)
UPUP 30,793 (5.3%)
SDLP 70,917 (12.1%)
SF 38,821 (6.6%)
Alliance 32,095 (5.5%)
Workers Party 18,148 (3.1%)
For the Anglo-Irish Agreement 6,777 (1.2%)
Total anti-agreement 418,230 (71.5%)
Total pro-agreement 166,758 (28.5%)
Total 584,988
(I notice that the 71.5% anti-agreement mirrors the 71.1% pro-agreement in the referendum after the Good Friday Agreement)
It would have been interesting to see what sort of result it would have been if all the main parties had contested all the constituencies in the normal way, and if the SDLP and Sinn Fein had joined in by resigning their 2 constituencies as well as the 15 Unionists.
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 18:35:20 GMT
Results, total of, Category F (Northern Ireland others)
SF 54,664 (29.0%)
UUP 41,853 (22.2%)
SDLP 26,014 (13.8%)
DUP 21,384 (11.3%)
Independent Unionist (Mid Ulster) 12,781 (6.8%)
Alliance 11,688 (6.2%)
UK Unionist (Down North) 10,124 (5.4%)
Independent Unionist (Down North) 2,170 (1.2%)
People Before Profit 1,751 (0.9%)
Conservative 1,621 (0.9%)
Ulster Independence Party 1,534 (0.8%)
Workers Party 1,083 (0.6%)
Ulster Democratic Party 600 (0.3%)
Green 576 (0.3%)
SDP 154 (0.1%)
Others 593 (0.3%)
Total 188,590
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 18:36:54 GMT
I have added up the totals for the parties in each of the 6 categories separately, so that I can compare them with the totals of the votes in the same constituencies from the previous general elections (and so that the swings can be compared as with individual by-elections) but I haven't done those calculations yet.
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Post by greatkingrat on Apr 14, 2023 18:42:21 GMT
I have added up the totals for the parties in each of the 6 categories separately, so that I can compare them with the totals of the votes in the same constituencies from the previous general elections (and so that the swings can be compared as with individual by-elections) but I haven't done those calculations yet. Has doktorb hacked your account? |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 19:01:01 GMT
1. Bermondsey - I was fascinated by the long list of candidates (16) and their various party descriptions.
4. Chestefield - another long list of candidates (17).
5. Cynon Valley - Ann Clwyd (the first woman MP to be elected in the South Wales valleys): "We have doubled the majority, despite the lower turnout. This is another nail in Mrs Thatcher's coffin".
9. Enfield Southgate - I remember the Labour candidate being asked "What result are you expecting?" - "A win". "What would be a good result for Labour?" - A win". He got 4,000 votes.
10. Brecon & Radnor - described at the time as a "sensational" by-election, an exciting 3-way marginal which Labour was widely expected to win. There were several opinion polls during the campaign, and the campaign was widely reported in the main news programmes.
Both on the same day:
28. Ryedale was expected to be a Conservative hold, but was a Liberal gain.
29. Derbyshire Wesy was expected to be a Liberal gain, but was a Conservative hold (after 3 recounts, with a majority of 100).
33. Truro - Matthew Taylor (then aged 24) was by far the cutest MP ever to be elected in any of these 161 by-elections.
34. Kensington - the first one in which the winner got less than 10,000 votes.
35. Glasgow Govan - it was exciting because I had waited a whole 5 years, through the entire 1983-87 parliament, without there being any parliamentary by-elections in Scotland (although there had already been two in Wales). I remember that when the seat became vacant, the newsreader casually said, as an afterthought, that the main challenge to Labour (and its 19,000 majority) was "likely to come from the Scottish National Party" (even though the SNP had been in 4th place in the 1987 general election). There was virtually no further coverage of the by-election campaign on the main news, until the evening of the election itself when the newsreader said that the SNP was expecting to win. The defeated Labour candidate said "We will win it back - it was 3 months last time [referring to 1973], it'll be 3 years this time".
36. Epping Forest and 37. Richmond Yorkshire - I was annoyed at the continuing-SDP arrogantly splitting the vote and daring to stand against the Lib Dems. This annoyance was regardless of whether I actually supported the Lib Dems or not (at that time I didn't; I was still vaguely a Conservative supporter). During the merger of the Liberal Party and the SDP I was strongly pro-merger (despite not being a member or supporter of either party).
42. Staffordshire Mid - it was fought mainly on the issue of the Poll Tax. I remember one bit when the Conservative candidate was tackled by a voter on the issue, and he insulted the voter by saying that they should complain to the local council about the amount of the Poll Tax - ignoring the fact that the voter was complaining about the principle of the policy rather than the amount of the tax itself.
46. Eastbourne - I was annoyed at the arrogance of some Conservatives who presumed to imply that the voters had a duty to vote Conservative just because Ian Gow had been assassinated, and who said that they were allowing the IRA to determine the party-orientation of the MP (thus ignoring the fact that it was the voters of Eastbourne themselves who were making the decision).
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 19:01:38 GMT
I have added up the totals for the parties in each of the 6 categories separately, so that I can compare them with the totals of the votes in the same constituencies from the previous general elections (and so that the swings can be compared as with individual by-elections) but I haven't done those calculations yet. Has doktorb hacked your account? Oh Ff I hope not |
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Post by johnloony on Apr 14, 2023 19:13:05 GMT
44. and 47. Bootle - when I heard the news that Mike Carr had died of a heart attack only 2 months after the first by-election, it was one of the biggest shocks I've had in the whole 40 years of following by-elections.
It was fun that there was a recount for 2nd place between the Conservative and Lib dem candidates (3,220 and 3,179 votes respectively) despite both being miles behind Labour.
More fun at the declaration of the 2nd by-election, when the Returning Officer announced the Labour vote as "2,052" instead of "22,052".
51. Ribble Valley - after the trauma of the Liberal/SDP merger, and with the Lib Dems still low in the opinion polls, I expected it to be a Conservative hold instead of a Lib Dem gain.
58. Newbury - great fun that the Lib Dems got a majority of 22,000.
61. to 65. Five by-elections all on the same day. Massive swings against the Conservative Party, in seats which were already safe Labour. Fears that the BNP might come second in Dagenham. John Tyndall declaring that the BNP was going to win in the end.
66. Monklands East sectarianism between Labour and SNP supporters in an acrimonious campaign.
69. Perth & Kinross and 71. Littleborough & Saddleworth - Conservative Party going down from 1st place to 3rd place in both. An omen for the impending catastrophe of 1997.
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