Corbyn wins in 2019

[LDCaerdydd]

Surprised this hasn't been covered already.

Labour pull off a surprise victory in 2019 winning ~340 seats.

What kind of Brexit do we get?
What kind of Queens Speech do we get?
What kind of pandemic response do we have?
Is he still leader three years later (today)?

What happens in the 2020 Conservative Leadership election?

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

The press would have been going for the jugular from day 1.

[rockefeller]

Nov 26, 2022 12:56:02 GMT Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith said:

The press would have been going for the jugular from day 1.

And Leveson 2.0 would have been implemented. 

[rockefeller]

Confounding his critics, Corbyn led his Labour Party to a historic victory, taking out several big beasts of the 2010-19 era: Steve Baker, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and many others were among the oaks felled by Labour that night. Disillusion with the Conservatives saw the Brexit Party play spoiler, with Tory hopes in countless marginals dashed. Nigel Farage's new outfit won two seats to add to the battered and bruised phalanx of world-wiery Tories.

Corbyn's Labour ended the night with 306 seats, to the Conservatives' 257. Mass tactical voting saw several shocks - the Lib Dems snatched Cheltenham, Esher, Guildford, Lewes, South Cambridgeshire, Wimbledon, Winchester, and other edge-of-conurbation white-collar seats from the Tories, a damning indictment of Boris's Brexit bungling.

A second vote on how the UK should leave the EU with Rory Stewart leading a bipartisan campaign to stay in the EU's common market ekes out 52-48 a win over a more drastic option. The Tories cry foul over this Brexit betrayal, and the Labour government (with a confidence and supply deal with the Lib Dems) enjoys a honeymoon before Jeremy Hunt is elected Tory leader after a protracted duel with Michael Gove.

Corbyn's plans to nationalise the railways are on ice until 2022. In a sign of the government's popularity, Kim Leadbeater holds Batley & Spen with an increased majority, as the Reform Party's anti-lockdown stance saps votes from Jeremy Hunt's Conservatives. Labour followed up a victory over the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts with a decisive win in the Hartlepool and Batley & Spen contests. The Tories narrowly keep Tiverton & Honiton despite a strong Reform Party challenge.

However, Labour has a setback when Andrew Boff edges out Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election. The government retains the Supplementary Vote for mayoral votes and expands this to general elections, with support from the Lib Dems, SNP and the two Reform MPs.

Tensions emerge, not least because many of the nationalisation measures passed with SNP votes, leading the Tories to make an English Parliament the centrepiece of their 2024 manifesto, which steals the Reform Party's thunder on the devolution issue. There is talk of a 'curry house plot' to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, and he pledges to step down as PM before the 2024 election.

The Rochdale seat becomes vacant, and Andy Burnham wins despite George Galloway taking second place. Burnham wins the 2022 leadership race.

[carlton43]

Nov 26, 2022 13:53:25 GMT rockefeller said:

Confounding his critics, Corbyn led his Labour Party to a historic victory, taking out several big beasts of the 2010-19 era: Steve Baker, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and many others were among the oaks felled by Labour that night. Disillusion with the Conservatives saw the Brexit Party play spoiler, with Tory hopes in countless marginals dashed. Nigel Farage's new outfit won two seats to add to the battered and bruised phalanx of world-wiery Tories.

Corbyn's Labour ended the night with 306 seats, to the Conservatives' 257. Mass tactical voting saw several shocks - the Lib Dems snatched Cheltenham, Esher, Guildford, Lewes, South Cambridgeshire, Wimbledon, Winchester, and other edge-of-conurbation white-collar seats from the Tories, a damning indictment of Boris's Brexit bungling.

A second vote on how the UK should leave the EU with Rory Stewart leading a bipartisan campaign to stay in the EU's common market ekes out 52-48 a win over a more drastic option. The Tories cry foul over this Brexit betrayal, and the Labour government (with a confidence and supply deal with the Lib Dems) enjoys a honeymoon before Jeremy Hunt is elected Tory leader after a protracted duel with Michael Gove.

Corbyn's plans to nationalise the railways are on ice until 2022. In a sign of the government's popularity, Kim Leadbeater holds Batley & Spen with an increased majority, as the Reform Party's anti-lockdown stance saps votes from Jeremy Hunt's Conservatives. Labour followed up a victory over the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts with a decisive win in the Hartlepool and Batley & Spen contests. The Tories narrowly keep Tiverton & Honiton despite a strong Reform Party challenge.

However, Labour has a setback when Andrew Boff edges out Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election. The government retains the Supplementary Vote for mayoral votes and expands this to general elections, with support from the Lib Dems, SNP and the two Reform MPs.

Tensions emerge, not least because many of the nationalisation measures passed with SNP votes, leading the Tories to make an English Parliament the centrepiece of their 2024 manifesto, which steals the Reform Party's thunder on the devolution issue. There is talk of a 'curry house plot' to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, and he pledges to step down as PM before the 2024 election.

The Rochdale seat becomes vacant, and Andy Burnham wins despite George Galloway taking second place. Burnham wins the 2022 leadership race.

That is a carefully fleshed out scenario with distict plausibility up to a point, and it can never be better than up to a point.  Much of what did actually happen, if set out in advance, would have looked markedly less plausible than what you have advanced.

[mattbewilson]

Nov 26, 2022 13:53:25 GMT rockefeller said:

Confounding his critics, Corbyn led his Labour Party to a historic victory, taking out several big beasts of the 2010-19 era: Steve Baker, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and many others were among the oaks felled by Labour that night. Disillusion with the Conservatives saw the Brexit Party play spoiler, with Tory hopes in countless marginals dashed. Nigel Farage's new outfit won two seats to add to the battered and bruised phalanx of world-wiery Tories.

Corbyn's Labour ended the night with 306 seats, to the Conservatives' 257. Mass tactical voting saw several shocks - the Lib Dems snatched Cheltenham, Esher, Guildford, Lewes, South Cambridgeshire, Wimbledon, Winchester, and other edge-of-conurbation white-collar seats from the Tories, a damning indictment of Boris's Brexit bungling.

A second vote on how the UK should leave the EU with Rory Stewart leading a bipartisan campaign to stay in the EU's common market ekes out 52-48 a win over a more drastic option. The Tories cry foul over this Brexit betrayal, and the Labour government (with a confidence and supply deal with the Lib Dems) enjoys a honeymoon before Jeremy Hunt is elected Tory leader after a protracted duel with Michael Gove.

Corbyn's plans to nationalise the railways are on ice until 2022. In a sign of the government's popularity, Kim Leadbeater holds Batley & Spen with an increased majority, as the Reform Party's anti-lockdown stance saps votes from Jeremy Hunt's Conservatives. Labour followed up a victory over the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts with a decisive win in the Hartlepool and Batley & Spen contests. The Tories narrowly keep Tiverton & Honiton despite a strong Reform Party challenge.

However, Labour has a setback when Andrew Boff edges out Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election. The government retains the Supplementary Vote for mayoral votes and expands this to general elections, with support from the Lib Dems, SNP and the two Reform MPs.

Tensions emerge, not least because many of the nationalisation measures passed with SNP votes, leading the Tories to make an English Parliament the centrepiece of their 2024 manifesto, which steals the Reform Party's thunder on the devolution issue. There is talk of a 'curry house plot' to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, and he pledges to step down as PM before the 2024 election.

The Rochdale seat becomes vacant, and Andy Burnham wins despite George Galloway taking second place. Burnham wins the 2022 leadership race.

pretty good but I think Andrew Boff wouldn't have been the Tory candidate for London

[andrewp]

Nov 26, 2022 13:53:25 GMT rockefeller said:

Confounding his critics, Corbyn led his Labour Party to a historic victory, taking out several big beasts of the 2010-19 era: Steve Baker, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and many others were among the oaks felled by Labour that night. Disillusion with the Conservatives saw the Brexit Party play spoiler, with Tory hopes in countless marginals dashed. Nigel Farage's new outfit won two seats to add to the battered and bruised phalanx of world-wiery Tories.

Corbyn's Labour ended the night with 306 seats, to the Conservatives' 257. Mass tactical voting saw several shocks - the Lib Dems snatched Cheltenham, Esher, Guildford, Lewes, South Cambridgeshire, Wimbledon, Winchester, and other edge-of-conurbation white-collar seats from the Tories, a damning indictment of Boris's Brexit bungling.

A second vote on how the UK should leave the EU with Rory Stewart leading a bipartisan campaign to stay in the EU's common market ekes out 52-48 a win over a more drastic option. The Tories cry foul over this Brexit betrayal, and the Labour government (with a confidence and supply deal with the Lib Dems) enjoys a honeymoon before Jeremy Hunt is elected Tory leader after a protracted duel with Michael Gove.

Corbyn's plans to nationalise the railways are on ice until 2022. In a sign of the government's popularity, Kim Leadbeater holds Batley & Spen with an increased majority, as the Reform Party's anti-lockdown stance saps votes from Jeremy Hunt's Conservatives. Labour followed up a victory over the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts with a decisive win in the Hartlepool and Batley & Spen contests. The Tories narrowly keep Tiverton & Honiton despite a strong Reform Party challenge.

However, Labour has a setback when Andrew Boff edges out Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election. The government retains the Supplementary Vote for mayoral votes and expands this to general elections, with support from the Lib Dems, SNP and the two Reform MPs.

Tensions emerge, not least because many of the nationalisation measures passed with SNP votes, leading the Tories to make an English Parliament the centrepiece of their 2024 manifesto, which steals the Reform Party's thunder on the devolution issue. There is talk of a 'curry house plot' to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, and he pledges to step down as PM before the 2024 election.

The Rochdale seat becomes vacant, and Andy Burnham wins despite George Galloway taking second place. Burnham wins the 2022 leadership race.

Depending on the sequencing, following a second referendum, I think the Brexit Party might have won the Hartlepool by election. I’m not sure Labour would have won a decisive victory.

[timrollpickering]

Nov 26, 2022 15:22:44 GMT mattbewilson said:

pretty good but I think Andrew Boff wouldn't have been the Tory candidate for London

Sean Bailey had already been selected well before the general election came along.

[edgbaston]

Surprised nobody has mentioned covid.. that would’ve been significantly more politicised had Corbyn been in charge..

Partially as McDonnell would’ve used the crisis to extend the level of state involvement even further, and partially because the right wing press would’ve opposed pretty much anything Corbyn did while PM.

[J.G.Harston]

Nov 26, 2022 13:53:25 GMT rockefeller said:

(Snip a nice alt-history.)

Ah, I miss soc.history.what-if since the spambots took over. My ISP won't even let me view it anymore, it's on the ISP own blacklist. There doesn't seem to be a decent replacement for it anywhere.

[myth11]

2019 brexit cancelled
2020 UK expelled from EU as it turns out renationalising everything on the cheap really hurts a good number of EU countries.

[nodealbrexiteer]

Nov 26, 2022 20:24:37 GMT myth11 said:

2019 brexit cancelled
2020 UK expelled from EU as it turns out renationalising everything on the cheap really hurts a good number of EU countries.

Well that would have been Corbyn's real desire

[J.G.Harston]

Nov 26, 2022 20:24:37 GMT myth11 said:

2019 brexit cancelled
2020 UK expelled from EU as it turns out renationalising everything on the cheap really hurts a good number of EU countries.

2021 Palace of Westminster burned to the group by an unholy alliance of Brextremists and Remoaners.

[greenchristian]

Nov 26, 2022 18:51:19 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Nov 26, 2022 13:53:25 GMT rockefeller said:

(Snip a nice alt-history.)

Ah, I miss soc.history.what-if since the spambots took over. My ISP won't even let me view it anymore, it's on the ISP own blacklist. There doesn't seem to be a decent replacement for it anywhere.

Have you tried alternatehistory.com?

[nyx]

Nov 28, 2022 14:59:48 GMT greenchristian said:

Nov 26, 2022 18:51:19 GMT J.G.Harston said:

Ah, I miss soc.history.what-if since the spambots took over. My ISP won't even let me view it anymore, it's on the ISP own blacklist. There doesn't seem to be a decent replacement for it anywhere.

Have you tried alternatehistory.com?

Also the Sealion Press forum, which is smaller but friendlier in general.

[sirbenjamin]

Nov 26, 2022 13:53:25 GMT rockefeller said:

Confounding his critics, Corbyn led his Labour Party to a historic victory, taking out several big beasts of the 2010-19 era: Steve Baker, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and many others were among the oaks felled by Labour that night. Disillusion with the Conservatives saw the Brexit Party play spoiler, with Tory hopes in countless marginals dashed. Nigel Farage's new outfit won two seats to add to the battered and bruised phalanx of world-wiery Tories.

Corbyn's Labour ended the night with 306 seats, to the Conservatives' 257. Mass tactical voting saw several shocks - the Lib Dems snatched Cheltenham, Esher, Guildford, Lewes, South Cambridgeshire, Wimbledon, Winchester, and other edge-of-conurbation white-collar seats from the Tories, a damning indictment of Boris's Brexit bungling.

A second vote on how the UK should leave the EU with Rory Stewart leading a bipartisan campaign to stay in the EU's common market ekes out 52-48 a win over a more drastic option. The Tories cry foul over this Brexit betrayal, and the Labour government (with a confidence and supply deal with the Lib Dems) enjoys a honeymoon before Jeremy Hunt is elected Tory leader after a protracted duel with Michael Gove.

Corbyn's plans to nationalise the railways are on ice until 2022. In a sign of the government's popularity, Kim Leadbeater holds Batley & Spen with an increased majority, as the Reform Party's anti-lockdown stance saps votes from Jeremy Hunt's Conservatives. Labour followed up a victory over the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts with a decisive win in the Hartlepool and Batley & Spen contests. The Tories narrowly keep Tiverton & Honiton despite a strong Reform Party challenge.

However, Labour has a setback when Andrew Boff edges out Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election. The government retains the Supplementary Vote for mayoral votes and expands this to general elections, with support from the Lib Dems, SNP and the two Reform MPs.

Tensions emerge, not least because many of the nationalisation measures passed with SNP votes, leading the Tories to make an English Parliament the centrepiece of their 2024 manifesto, which steals the Reform Party's thunder on the devolution issue. There is talk of a 'curry house plot' to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, and he pledges to step down as PM before the 2024 election.

The Rochdale seat becomes vacant, and Andy Burnham wins despite George Galloway taking second place. Burnham wins the 2022 leadership race.

On 306 seats, he's going to be facing rebellions at every turn, fuck-all legislation going through and, in all probability, a leadership challenge within a year.

Politics has shown time and again that 'winning narrowly' is frequently a more troublesome cross to bear than losing.

[The Bishop]

Though in this admittedly unlikely counterfactual, Corbyn would surely have a great deal of kudos from defying the odds yet again (think of the 2017 GE, but on steroids) To the extent that even some of our implacably hostile media might have been shocked into treating him with a bit more respect.

And given his age, it is very likely he would never intend to do a full term anyway.

[sirbenjamin]

With hindsight an ideal result in 2019 may have been a very narrow Labour win, despite losing the popular vote, due to freakish vote distribution and unhelpful Brexit Party interventions.

The pandemic would've been largely the same, the knives would be out for the Corbyn administration from day one, nothing important would pass, Labour would be blamed for lots of things, and we'd probably have a Tory government again by now, but one rather less tarnished, and possibly even actually led by a Conservative.

[Peter Wilkinson]

Nov 26, 2022 13:53:25 GMT rockefeller said:

Confounding his critics, Corbyn led his Labour Party to a historic victory, taking out several big beasts of the 2010-19 era: Steve Baker, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and many others were among the oaks felled by Labour that night. Disillusion with the Conservatives saw the Brexit Party play spoiler, with Tory hopes in countless marginals dashed. Nigel Farage's new outfit won two seats to add to the battered and bruised phalanx of world-wiery Tories.

Corbyn's Labour ended the night with 306 seats, to the Conservatives' 257. Mass tactical voting saw several shocks - the Lib Dems snatched Cheltenham, Esher, Guildford, Lewes, South Cambridgeshire, Wimbledon, Winchester, and other edge-of-conurbation white-collar seats from the Tories, a damning indictment of Boris's Brexit bungling.

A second vote on how the UK should leave the EU with Rory Stewart leading a bipartisan campaign to stay in the EU's common market ekes out 52-48 a win over a more drastic option. The Tories cry foul over this Brexit betrayal, and the Labour government (with a confidence and supply deal with the Lib Dems) enjoys a honeymoon before Jeremy Hunt is elected Tory leader after a protracted duel with Michael Gove.

Corbyn's plans to nationalise the railways are on ice until 2022. In a sign of the government's popularity, Kim Leadbeater holds Batley & Spen with an increased majority, as the Reform Party's anti-lockdown stance saps votes from Jeremy Hunt's Conservatives. Labour followed up a victory over the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts with a decisive win in the Hartlepool and Batley & Spen contests. The Tories narrowly keep Tiverton & Honiton despite a strong Reform Party challenge.

However, Labour has a setback when Andrew Boff edges out Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election. The government retains the Supplementary Vote for mayoral votes and expands this to general elections, with support from the Lib Dems, SNP and the two Reform MPs.

Tensions emerge, not least because many of the nationalisation measures passed with SNP votes, leading the Tories to make an English Parliament the centrepiece of their 2024 manifesto, which steals the Reform Party's thunder on the devolution issue. There is talk of a 'curry house plot' to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, and he pledges to step down as PM before the 2024 election.

The Rochdale seat becomes vacant, and Andy Burnham wins despite George Galloway taking second place. Burnham wins the 2022 leadership race.

Overall, a thoughtful post (even if I might critique some details), but it does raise a few questions about Parliamentary arithmetic.

From the highlighted phrases in the second paragraph, Labour has 306 seats, the Tories have 257, and the Lib Dems presumably have 20 or so (at least the 12 they got, the 7 listed and something more. The Commons has 650 seats in all, so this result leave Labour and the Tories with 563 seats between them, and so 86 seats for all other parties (including the Lib Dems' 20 odd) and 1 for the Speaker. Leaving aside (admittedly somewhat improbably) rebellions, the Tories require 50 of these 86 to vote with them to defeat Labour on any vote, before any consideration is given to which other MPs might be voting with Labour. Just who are these 50 extra MPs?

The 20+ Lib Dems presumably, and MPs for any other minor (including Northern Irish) parties - but if the SNP had more than 36 MPs, then the 50 have to include at least some SNP MPs. And, for every SNP MP who votes with Labour, an extra SNP MP would have to voting against Labour, to compensate.

Put another way, in this situation, if the SNP had 36 or more MPs, they could certainly vote to defeat Labour, but Labour would win nothing from their support that it could not win if they chose to abstain, or just all remained in Edinburgh that week. And the figure of 36 reduces by one for each other non-Labour MP not voting with the Tories (Sinn Fein, for example) - and, of course, by 2 for any non-Labour MP actually voting with Labour. It would not be Labour who was dependent on SNP votes - it would be Labour's opponents.

[islington]

Nov 29, 2022 13:41:20 GMT sirbenjamin said:

Nov 26, 2022 13:53:25 GMT rockefeller said:

Confounding his critics, Corbyn led his Labour Party to a historic victory, taking out several big beasts of the 2010-19 era: Steve Baker, Iain Duncan Smith, Theresa Villiers and many others were among the oaks felled by Labour that night. Disillusion with the Conservatives saw the Brexit Party play spoiler, with Tory hopes in countless marginals dashed. Nigel Farage's new outfit won two seats to add to the battered and bruised phalanx of world-wiery Tories.

Corbyn's Labour ended the night with 306 seats, to the Conservatives' 257. Mass tactical voting saw several shocks - the Lib Dems snatched Cheltenham, Esher, Guildford, Lewes, South Cambridgeshire, Wimbledon, Winchester, and other edge-of-conurbation white-collar seats from the Tories, a damning indictment of Boris's Brexit bungling.

A second vote on how the UK should leave the EU with Rory Stewart leading a bipartisan campaign to stay in the EU's common market ekes out 52-48 a win over a more drastic option. The Tories cry foul over this Brexit betrayal, and the Labour government (with a confidence and supply deal with the Lib Dems) enjoys a honeymoon before Jeremy Hunt is elected Tory leader after a protracted duel with Michael Gove.

Corbyn's plans to nationalise the railways are on ice until 2022. In a sign of the government's popularity, Kim Leadbeater holds Batley & Spen with an increased majority, as the Reform Party's anti-lockdown stance saps votes from Jeremy Hunt's Conservatives. Labour followed up a victory over the SNP in Airdrie & Shotts with a decisive win in the Hartlepool and Batley & Spen contests. The Tories narrowly keep Tiverton & Honiton despite a strong Reform Party challenge.

However, Labour has a setback when Andrew Boff edges out Sadiq Khan in the London Mayoral election. The government retains the Supplementary Vote for mayoral votes and expands this to general elections, with support from the Lib Dems, SNP and the two Reform MPs.

Tensions emerge, not least because many of the nationalisation measures passed with SNP votes, leading the Tories to make an English Parliament the centrepiece of their 2024 manifesto, which steals the Reform Party's thunder on the devolution issue. There is talk of a 'curry house plot' to replace Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader, and he pledges to step down as PM before the 2024 election.

The Rochdale seat becomes vacant, and Andy Burnham wins despite George Galloway taking second place. Burnham wins the 2022 leadership race.

On 306 seats, he's going to be facing rebellions at every turn, fuck-all legislation going through and, in all probability, a leadership challenge within a year.

Politics has shown time and again that 'winning narrowly' is frequently a more troublesome cross to bear than losing.

A Corbyn win in 2019 doesn't bear thinking about.

With a PM palpably unfit for the post, we'd have had political instability at all levels of government, leadership challenges, all sorts of crazies putting themselves forward for the top job, and all against a backdrop of industrial unrest, a destabilized pound, rampant inflation, giant budget deficits and continual banging on about Europe.

Whereas in reality ... er, hang on a minute ...