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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 14, 2022 9:04:36 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Tiverton and Honiton by election.
23rd June 2022
The 8 candidates as a reminder are:
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party)
Andy Foan (Reform UK)
Richard Foord (Lib Dem)
Helen Hurford (Conservative)
Liz Pole (Labour)
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain)
Ben Walker (UKIP)
Gill Westcott (Green)
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 8 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 12.5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 6.8 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 23rd June 2022.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
Have Fun.
DHAA
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Post by greenhert on Jun 14, 2022 10:35:40 GMT
To begin, here is my prediction:
Richard Foord (Liberal Democrats) 44.0%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 37.5%
Liz Pole (Labour) 9.5%
Gill Westcott (Green) 5.5%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 2.0%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.7%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.5%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.3%
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Post by kevinf on Jun 14, 2022 13:32:18 GMT
Lib Dem 40
Con. 37
Lab. 12
Reform. 4.5
Green. 4
Ukip. 2
Heritage. 0.3
For Britain. 0.2
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,249 
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Post by peterl on Jun 14, 2022 14:39:30 GMT
Richard Foord (Liberal Democrats) 43.8%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 36.4%
Liz Pole (Labour) 10.4%
Gill Westcott (Green) 6.4%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 1.6%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.7%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.5%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.2%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,351
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 15, 2022 20:12:05 GMT
LD 42.2
Con 38.5
Lab 12.2
Grn 4.0
UKIP 1.2
Reform 1.0
Heritage 0.7
For Britain 0.2
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Post by johnloony on Jun 17, 2022 21:04:32 GMT
LD 53.1
Con 31.6
Lab 8.9
Grn 2.7
RefUK 2.4
UKIP 0.7
Her 0.4
ForBr 0.2
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
Posts: 4,979
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Post by sirbenjamin on Jun 18, 2022 0:00:09 GMT
Richard Foord (Liberal Democrats) 48.9%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 34.9%
Liz Pole (Labour) 7.6%
Gill Westcott (Green) 5.2%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 2.3%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.5%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.4%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.2%
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Post by jamesmanc22 on Jun 18, 2022 15:02:11 GMT
Conservative 46%
Liberal Democrats 43%
Labour 6%
Green 3.0%
Reform UK 1%
Heritage Party 0.5%
UKIP 0.3%
For Britain 0.2%
Conservative Hold
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 19, 2022 8:17:39 GMT
LD 44.7 Con 38.4 Lab 11.2 Green 3.9 UKIP 1.1 For Britain 0.4 Heritage 0.3
ReformUK is missing from your prediction, this will incur a 12.5 point penalty if not rectified.
DHAA
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Post by jm on Jun 19, 2022 10:54:05 GMT
Richard Foord (Lib Dem) 42.7%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) 41.9%
Liz Pole (Labour) 9.6%
Gill Westcott (Green) 2.4%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) 1.8%
Ben Walker (UKIP) 0.8%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) 0.5%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) 0.3%
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Post by mysticrobin on Jun 19, 2022 11:17:45 GMT
Helen Hurford 42.5%
Richard Foord 41%
Liz Pole 8%
Gill Westcott 5%
Andy Foan 2%
Ben Walker 1%
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan 0.3%
Frankie Rufolo 0.2%
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,061
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Jun 19, 2022 12:35:50 GMT
LD 44.7 Con 38.4 Lab 11.2 Green 3.9 UKIP 1.1 For Britain 0.4 Heritage 0.3
ReformUK is missing from your prediction, this will encure a 12.5 point penalty if not rectified.
DHAA
He could ask Mason Mount to take it  |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 19, 2022 15:27:35 GMT
ReformUK is missing from your prediction, this will encure a 12.5 point penalty if not rectified.
DHAA
He could ask Mason Mount to take it  Anything that cures my spelling is allowable. |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 8,930
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Jun 19, 2022 18:26:25 GMT
LD 44.7 Con 38.4 Lab 11.2 Green 3.9 UKIP 1.1 For Britain 0.4 Heritage 0.3
ReformUK is missing from your prediction, this will incur a 12.5 point penalty if not rectified.
DHAA
whoops, thanks. Here is my revised prediction (I'll delete the other one) : LD 43.4 Con 37.6 Lab 10.8 Green 3.7 Reform UK 2.8 UKIP 1.0 For Britain 0.4 Heritage 0.3 |
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Post by johnloony on Jun 19, 2022 19:33:14 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Tiverton and Honiton by election. 23rd June 2022 … Rules 1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 8 candidates, to 1 decimal place. 2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%. 3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully. 4. You will be penalised 12.5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction. 5. You will be penalised 6.8 points for predicting the wrong winner. 6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 23rd June 2022. 8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election. Have Fun. DHAA I curious am. What is the logic behind the otherwise apparently arbitrary choice of 6.8 as a number? In the Wakefield prediction thread, it’s 6.6, which is sort-of logical because it’s the reciprocal of the number of candidates. |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Jun 20, 2022 8:09:02 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for Tiverton and Honiton by election. 23rd June 2022 … Rules 1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 8 candidates, to 1 decimal place. 2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%. 3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully. 4. You will be penalised 12.5 points for each candidate missing from your prediction. 5. You will be penalised 6.8 points for predicting the wrong winner. 6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 23rd June 2022. 8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election. Have Fun. DHAA I curious am. What is the logic behind the otherwise apparently arbitrary choice of 6.8 as a number? In the Wakefield prediction thread, it’s 6.6, which is sort-of logical because it’s the reciprocal of the number of candidates. It's a bit arbitrary, I thought 12.5 was too high and 6.25 a bit low. 6.8 is around typical for previous competitions. |
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Jun 20, 2022 21:51:05 GMT
Conservative 41.2%
Liberal Democrat 40.9%
Labour 10.5%
Green 5%
UKIP 1%
Reform 0.7%
Heritage 0.5%
For Britain 0.2%
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
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Post by YL on Jun 21, 2022 7:09:53 GMT
Lib Dem 46.8%
Con 41.7%
Green 4.5%
Lab 4.2%
Reform 1.9%
UKIP 0.5%
Heritage 0.3%
For Britain 0.1%
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Post by olympian95 on Jun 22, 2022 10:05:22 GMT
Heritage Jordan Donoghue-Morgan 0.8%
Reform UK Andy Foan 1.6%
Liberal Democrats Richard Foord 57.7%
Conservative Helen Hurford 32.3%
Labour Liz Pole 3.9%
For Britain Frankie Rufolo 0.5%
UKIP Ben Walker 1.0%
Green Gill Westcott 2.2%
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Post by bigfatron on Jun 22, 2022 10:07:24 GMT
Jordan Donaghue-Morgan (Heritage Party) - 0.2%
Andy Foan (Reform UK) - 1.5%
Richard Foord (Lib Dem) - 41.5%
Helen Hurford (Conservative) - 42.0%
Liz Pole (Labour) - 9.4%
Frankie Rufolo (For Britain) = 0.2%
Ben Walker (UKIP) - 0.4%
Gill Westcott (Green) - 4.8%
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