Denmark, elections

[Georg Ebner]

LocalElections will take place tomorrow.
An OverView, which parties the mayors have belonged to in the recent past:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1SQEOKCzFQ_hMxGGE1dztydo1JwY5hw_d/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=118272390619027589853&rtpof=true&sd=true

2009-2013:



2013-2017 strongest party (not necessarily the mayors'):

[The Bishop]

Looks like the Soc Dems could be heading for a bit of a drubbing in Copenhagen if polling is at all accurate.

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 16, 2021 12:55:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Looks like the Soc Dems could be heading for a bit of a drubbing in Copenhagen if polling is at all accurate.

Yes, they were polled far behind and different to a former election haven't begun attacks on the farLeft.
But if necessary they can rely on the mid(right) parties in order to defend the mayorship. 

[jamie]

Nov 16, 2021 12:55:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Looks like the Soc Dems could be heading for a bit of a drubbing in Copenhagen if polling is at all accurate.

The national opinion polls don't look too bad (basically the same as the 2019 election, though unclear how much the mink scandal has/will continue to hurt them). However, this is down from their 2017 local election performance, and more socially liberal minded voters disproportionately seem to have switched between 2017 and 2019. Furthermore, the Unity List led by 2% in 2019 but the last poll has them ahead by 6%. The Social Democrats usually overperform at local elections but look stagnant here. 

[Sibboleth]

Nov 16, 2021 19:49:30 GMT jamie said:

Nov 16, 2021 12:55:04 GMT The Bishop said:

Looks like the Soc Dems could be heading for a bit of a drubbing in Copenhagen if polling is at all accurate.

The national opinion polls don't look too bad (basically the same as the 2019 election, though unclear how much the mink scandal has/will continue to hurt them). However, this is down from their 2017 local election performance, and more socially liberal minded voters disproportionately seem to have switched between 2017 and 2019. Furthermore, the Unity List led by 2% in 2019 but the last poll has them ahead by 6%. The Social Democrats usually overperform at local elections but look stagnant here. 

In the KpH municipality (which only covers a pretty small part of the metropolitan area) the Social Democrats had been massively over-performing in local elections, but the popular Mayor who was the main reason for this got #metoo'd.

[neilm]

A university friend of mine is running for a municipal and regional position in Gentofte/Copenhagen. I'd not pay any attention otherwise.

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 16, 2021 21:02:35 GMT neilm said:

A university friend of mine is running for a municipal and regional position in Gentofte/Copenhagen. I'd not pay any attention otherwise.

Gentofte is part of the subUrban ring, where the "Conservatives" (=RightLiberals) were always strong, what did naturally only improve this time: 12/19 councillors!:

kmdvalg.dk/KV/2021/K84982157.htm

www.berlingske.dk/kv21

Despite being the big winner they have lost FrederiksBerg (the island surrounded by Copenhagen) after over 100 years. What was already last time expected to happen.

[Georg Ebner]

Various Media:

www.berlingske.dk/kv21

jyllands-posten.dk/politik

politiken.dk/indland/politik/kommunalvalg/

www.dr.dk/nyheder/politik/resultater/kommunalvalg

[Georg Ebner]

32.4% -3.9% = 28.5% SocialDem.
23.1% -1.9% = 21.2% Venstre
08.8% +6.4% = 15.2% Conservatives
05.7% +1.9% = 07.6% Soc.People'sP.
06.0% +1.3% = 07.3% RedGreen UnityList
04.6% +1.0% = 05.6% Radical Venstre
08.7% -4.6% = 04.1% DanishPeople'sP.
00.9% +2.7% = 03.6% New Right/Bourgeoisie
02.6% -1.2% = 01.4% Liberal Alliance
00.6% +0.2% = 00.8% ChristDemocrats
02.9% -2.2% = 00.7% Alternatives
00.2%  0.0% = 00.2% VeganP.
03.7% -0.1% = 03.6% others

Blocs:
51.8% -1.9% = 49.9% Red
44.7% +1.6% = 46.3% Blue
03.7% -0.1% = 03.6% others

[Georg Ebner]

Disappointing for the BlueBloc, which has recently improved and been NeckToNeck with the Red one in national OpinionPolls.

[Georg Ebner]

In...

- CapitalRegion: remains firmly Red
- SeaLand: remains Red
- South-JutLand: as usual Blue
- North-JutLand: should switch to the BlueBloc
- Mid-JutLand: a "PsychiatricList" will (theoretically) be KingMaker

[Georg Ebner]

Councillors 2017:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JHn052GjV64cm0m-o5gofLsV86QgApHO/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=118272390619027589853&rtpof=true&sd=true

[Georg Ebner]

Nov 17, 2021 2:29:55 GMT Georg Ebner said:

- Mid-JutLand: a "PsychiatricList" will (theoretically) be KingMaker

The soc.dem. inCumbent will remain in office.

Not less than 94/98 mayors are already now negotiated - unbelievable with this high fragmentation!

"Left" (=Venstre) & "Conservatives" (=RightLiberals) will probably have a little bit more than the Red Bloc.

[Georg Ebner]

The mayors seem to have been elected by the councils (with few [melo]dramatic switches happening after those record-fast agreements on&after ElectionNight). Various data:

drive.google.com/drive/folders/1dIE1cDRwQP_W2Iw6pL5mjYQmt20UV1WA?usp=sharing

[Georg Ebner]

The referendum is over and "Yes" won unsurprisingly 2:1:

Biggest victory proEU since 2000:

...based on a very low participation, though:

[markgoodair]

Jun 2, 2022 0:19:06 GMT Georg Ebner said:

The referendum is over and "Yes" won unsurprisingly 2:1:

Biggest victory proEU since 2000:

...based on a very low participation, though:

Democratic European Cooperation 1 Putin 0

[The Bishop]

To put it into context this "very low participation" was nearly 66 per cent - higher than some of the UK's general elections this century.

[Georg Ebner]

Jun 2, 2022 12:08:09 GMT The Bishop said:

To put it into context this "very low participation" was nearly 66 per cent - higher than some of the UK's general elections this century.

Let alone EastEurope.
Wrote it also with some irony.