No snap election in Feb 1974

[Deleted]

Let’s imagine that in early February 1974 Ted Heath had decided that instead of calling a snap election, he would hold out for a few more weeks until the Pay Board published its report on wage relativities. This would have meant the government could have given the miners a substantial pay rise without it looking like a complete U-turn.

But how would events have panned out after that? Would it have brought the crisis to an immediate end? Would the NUM be happy with a revised offer? What would it have done to Heath and the governments credibility, and how long could the 1970 Parliament have lasted, bearing in mind an election could have waited until July 1975 at the latest.

[No Offence Alan]

Mar 20, 2021 21:14:22 GMT @jimbo said:

Let’s imagine that in early February 1974 Ted Heath had decided that instead of calling a snap election, he would hold out for a few more weeks until the Pay Board published its report on wage relativities. This would have meant the government could have given the miners a substantial pay rise without it looking like a complete U-turn.

But how would events have panned out after that? Would it have brought the crisis to an immediate end? Would the NUM be happy with a revised offer? What would it have done to Heath and governments credibility, and how long could the 1970 Parliament have lasted, bearing in mind an election could have waited until July 1975 at the latest.

The first consequence would have been a by-election in South Worcestershire, following the death of Sir Gerald Nabarro.
I just checked and the South Worcestershire result in 1970 was about the same as the Ripon result, so a possible Liberal gain too?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Mar 20, 2021 21:22:24 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Mar 20, 2021 21:14:22 GMT @jimbo said:

Let’s imagine that in early February 1974 Ted Heath had decided that instead of calling a snap election, he would hold out for a few more weeks until the Pay Board published its report on wage relativities. This would have meant the government could have given the miners a substantial pay rise without it looking like a complete U-turn.

But how would events have panned out after that? Would it have brought the crisis to an immediate end? Would the NUM be happy with a revised offer? What would it have done to Heath and governments credibility, and how long could the 1970 Parliament have lasted, bearing in mind an election could have waited until July 1975 at the latest.

The first consequence would have been a by-election in South Worcestershire, following the death of Sir Gerald Nabarro.
I just checked and the South Worcestershire result in 1970 was about the same as the Ripon result, so a possible Liberal gain too?

World in Action commissioned a poll from MORI in South Worcestershire which was published on 14 January 1974:

Conservative 44
Labour 28
Liberal 28

The respondents were asked who was to blame for the present crisis:

The Trade Unions: 39
The Government and the Conservatives: 27
Politicians in general: 10
The miners: 10

[greenhert]

I already touched on this subject in the "1975 UK general election" alternate history thread, just to remind you.

[greenhert]

Mar 20, 2021 21:22:24 GMT No Offence Alan said:

Mar 20, 2021 21:14:22 GMT @jimbo said:

Let’s imagine that in early February 1974 Ted Heath had decided that instead of calling a snap election, he would hold out for a few more weeks until the Pay Board published its report on wage relativities. This would have meant the government could have given the miners a substantial pay rise without it looking like a complete U-turn.

But how would events have panned out after that? Would it have brought the crisis to an immediate end? Would the NUM be happy with a revised offer? What would it have done to Heath and governments credibility, and how long could the 1970 Parliament have lasted, bearing in mind an election could have waited until July 1975 at the latest.

The first consequence would have been a by-election in South Worcestershire, following the death of Sir Gerald Nabarro.
I just checked and the South Worcestershire result in 1970 was about the same as the Ripon result, so a possible Liberal gain too?

Yes, had a South Worcestershire by-election ever actually occurred in 1974 the Liberals would definitely have won it. In the February 1974 general election the Liberal vote increased by as much as 20.8% in South Worcestershire. The Liberal result was actually worse in Ripon than in South Worcestershire (13.1% vs. 14.3%) in 1970.