Ross, Skye and Lochaber

[carlton43]

I elect to complete this entry in due course.

[Robert Waller]

2011 Census

Age 65+ 19.5% 155/650
Age 45-64 32.1% 1/650
Owner-occupied 68.4% 271/650
Private rented 10.0% 579/650
Social rented 18.0% 264/650
White 98.9% 14/650
Black 0.1% 608/650
Asian 0.6% 614/650
Managerial & professional 29.4%
Routine & Semi-routine 28.7%
Degree level 28.5% 222/650
No qualifications 24.9% 258/650
Students 4.6% 648/650



General Election 2019: Ross, Skye and Lochaber

Party Candidate Votes % ±%

SNP Ian Blackford 19,263 48.3 +8.1
Liberal Democrats Craig Harrow 9,820 24.6 +3.7
Conservative Gavin Berkenheger 6,900 17.3 -7.5
Labour John Erskine 2,448 6.1 -6.1
Brexit Party Kate Brownlie 710 1.8
Scottish Christian Donald Boyd 460 1.2
Scottish Family Richard Lucas 268 0.7

SNP Majority 9,443 23.7 +8.3

Turnout 39,869 73.5 +1.7

Registered electors 54,229

SNP hold
Swing C to SNP 7.8%, LD to SNP 2.2%

[carlton43]

This is a large consituency covering a central portion of Highland Council area.  At about 12,000 square kilometers it must be much the same as the whole of East Anglia. It stretches from an extensive Atlantic coastline on the West to a more restricted North Sea coastline largely being the Black Isle just to the north-east of Inverness.  It has the most northerly SFL team 'Ross County' at Dingwall the former county town of Rossshire.  It is the largest of all Westminster constituencies.  Its sheer size causes problems with the max and min criteria for constituency creation, so as to maintain electorate size and to attempt to constrain max area.  That has led to a number of iterations since initial creation in 1832 (from the previous two seats of Ross-shire and of Cromartyshire) into the single seat of Ross and Cromarty lasting from 1832-1983.  During that 150-years there were just 12 MPs spanning Whig, Conservative, Liberal, Crofters' Party, Liberal National, National Labour, Independent Liberal, and National Liberal.  It was Conservative held by Hamish Gray (who held various ministerial positions) at abolition.  The second iteration was as Ross, Cromarty and Skye 1983-1997 during which time it was held by Charles Kennedy who won it for the new SDP as a young man and held it for the LDs until abolition.  The third iteration as Ross, Skye and Inverness West 1997-2005 was also held by Charles  Kennedy for the LDs during his Leadership of that party.  The fourth iteration has been as Ross, Skye and Lochaber 2005-to the present with the long-serving Charles Kennedy losing his seat in the crushing SNP rout for so many Scottish MPs of 2015 that saw Ian Blackford win by 5,124 (12.2%) majority, from that party's previous narrow 15.1% of poll 3rd place only 2-votes behind Labour!  A quite stunning victory upon which the party has built to the present position.  It became the 9th different representaion as label for the MP of this seat.  It has had notable representation and seen many strong characters and big political events. The famous 1936 by-election between the winner Malcolm MacDonald (son of immediate former PM Ramsey MacDonald) and of  Randolph Churchill (son of shortly to be PM Winston Churchill) who crashed to a poor third behind a strong Labour challenge.  Also the decisive victory of a young Kennedy for the young SDP in what otherwise was the excellent Conservative year of 1983.  Plus the Crofters' Party decisive win in 1885 against an official Liberal in a straight fight!  There have been heady days for a discerning and involved electorate who are very concerned with policies and character quite as much as with party.  This seat has mixed terrain from some good farmland in the extreme east to the predominant open sheepwalk and increasing forestation in much of the rest.  The Torridon mountains run through the constituency.  Most of the electorate lives in the Black Isle townships, Greater Dingwall, the Lochaber coast and in the townships of the well populated and very large Isle of Skye (now tenuosly connected by a road bridge at the extreme southern end).  Despite the huge size the population is largely quite homogenous and with many interests and concerns in common.  It is an area with high incidence  of 4WD vehicles, trailers, shotguns, chainsaws, generators and holding down multiple part-time jobs depending on season and local  requirement.  These are quiet, steadfast, competent people who know how to cope against adversity.  It has hundreds of miles of single tracks roads with passing places, huge open vistas, intimidating hills, very high rainfall, many periods of very high winds and much winter snow away from coasts and on any high ground.  It is an amazing area.  It has often given the feeling of a settled state consituency with stolid support for its MP; yet will then change to another persuasion with a seamless transition.  The Conservative, Liberals/SDP/LD and now SNP have looked very secure for a time!  Just at present the SNP appear to be perfectly safe.  The proposed alterations made for the new constituency are unlikely to make much difference.  The surrounding seats are SNP strong (even when not held by them) and possibly still trending towards them.  But deeper medium term to long term ..... literally .... who knows?   

[batman]

Minor correction : Hamish Gray was a minister but not in the Cabinet. Thanks for doing this.

[Deleted]

I’m still surprised that Kennedy lost, and by the margin he did.

[Robert Waller]

Yes, thank you very much carlton43 for responding so promptly, and saving me from a distant trip in two senses, all the way to the north east coast and all the way back to the 2000s, when I was last fortunate enough to visit this marvellous constituency!

[LDCaerdydd]

Was this the only seat that the SDP gained at a general election?

(Excluding defections and by elections)

[stb12]

Jan 17, 2023 22:52:26 GMT @johnyorks said:

I’m still surprised that Kennedy lost, and by the margin he did.

In the context of the 2015 election in Scotland I'd say it wasn't surprising at all. Personal votes weren't really saving anyone and there was already evidence that the SNP had taken a lot of the Lib Dem Highlands support going back to the 2011 Scottish Parliament election (before the post-referendum surge). If anything Kennedy's profile may have kept the margin relatively low

Having said that there is some hindsight to it as even with all the polling evidence the SNP winning nearly every Scottish seat in 2015 did seem hard to believe

[michaelarden]

Jan 17, 2023 23:05:07 GMT LDCaerdydd said:

Was this the only seat that the SDP gained at a general election?

(Excluding defections and by elections)

Yes: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Social_Democratic_Party_(UK)_MPs