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Post by middleenglander on Jun 27, 2019 23:09:50 GMT
There have been 11 by-elections since the May annual elections up to the end of June with 5 ( 45%) changing hands. The results can be summarised by: | Party | Candidates | Defended | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | retention rate | | Conservative | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 3 | 100% | Labour | 10 | 4 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 25% | Liberal Democrats | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 100% | SNP | 1 |
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| Plaid Cymru | 3 | 1 | 1 |
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| 1 | 100% | Green | 3 |
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| UKIP | 5 |
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| Independent ^ | 6 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 50% | Localist ^^ | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 50% | Other ^^^ | 1 |
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| Total | 51 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 55% |
^ 6 Independents contested 4 elections ^^ Island (Isle of Wight) Independent, Lincolnshire Independent, Mansfield Independent Forum, Upminster & Cranham Resident ^^^ British Unity & Sovereignty Conservatives gained 2 seats - Isle of Wight, Whippingham & Osborne from Independent sitting as Labour with 35% share against Liberal Democrat second on 20% and 4 other candidates single member seat won by an Independent in 2017 and 2013 but Conservative in 2009 with 37%, Independent 36%, Liberal Democrat 21% and Labour 5% - North Kesteven, Billinghay, Martin & North Kyme from Lincolnshire Independent with 48% share / 24% Lincolnshire Independent and 4 other candidates 2 member ward: only a Conservative in May, Conservative / Lincolnshire Independent elected in 2015, Conservative / Independent unopposed in 2011 Labour lost 3 seats - Mansfield, Sandhurst to Mansfield Independent Forum on nearly 9% swing since May 2019 and 12% since 2011 but around 3% swing to Labour since 2015 single member ward that elected Labour in 2019 and 2011 but Mansfield Independent Forum in 2015 - Merton, Cannon Hill to a Liberal Democrat on ~ 20% swing since 2018 and around 22% since 2014; won with 35% share / Labour 29% / Conservative 28½% 3 member ward electing 1 Conservative / 2 Labour in 2018, 3 Labour in 2014 and 3 Conservatives in 2010, 2006 and 2002 - Neath Port Talbot, Resolven to an Independent standing for the first time with 60% share compared to 25% for Labour single member ward that elected Labour in each prior election since 2004 with 41% share in 2017, 72% in 2012, 57% in 2008 and 71% in 2004 |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 9, 2019 8:19:39 GMT
A quick simplified summary of all by-elections since the general election 2017 to the end of June 2019, Summary based on middleenglander's immaculate research which I acknowledge, as before I'm just trying to distil it down to essentials!
409 election contests.
Con 152 (-25)
Lab 139 ( -3)
LD 65 (+27)
SNP/PC 10 (+3)
Greens 5 (+4)
UKIP 0 (-12)
Others 38 (+6)
I suppose the overwhelming message is that despite the flight from the big 2, they remain the big 2.
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Post by ElectionMapsUK on Jul 9, 2019 23:51:11 GMT
A quick simplified summary of all by-elections since the general election 2017 to the end of June 2019, Summary based on middleenglander's immaculate research which I acknowledge, as before I'm just trying to distil it down to essentials! 409 election contests. Con 152 (-25) Lab 139 ( -3) LD 65 (+27) SNP/PC 10 (+3) Greens 5 (+4) UKIP 0 (-12) Others 38 (+6) I suppose the overwhelming message is that despite the flight from the big 2, they remain the big 2. My numbers are worryingly quite different, though I'm hoping it's because I include deferred elections and by-elections held on the same day as local elections. CON: 167 (-35) LAB: 155 (-1) LDM: 79 (+38) NAT: 11 (+5) GRN: 5 (+4) UKIP: 0 (-13) Other: 53 (+10) My Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19Uxq67kX7TKszlfGPjbaCRcyFGKWjpMahZIWuelxBL8/edit#gid=1784007383 |
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Post by yellowperil on Jul 10, 2019 5:08:27 GMT
A quick simplified summary of all by-elections since the general election 2017 to the end of June 2019, Summary based on middleenglander's immaculate research which I acknowledge, as before I'm just trying to distil it down to essentials! 409 election contests. Con 152 (-25) Lab 139 ( -3) LD 65 (+27) SNP/PC 10 (+3) Greens 5 (+4) UKIP 0 (-12) Others 38 (+6) I suppose the overwhelming message is that despite the flight from the big 2, they remain the big 2. My numbers are worryingly quite different, though I'm hoping it's because I include deferred elections and by-elections held on the same day as local elections. CON: 167 (-35) LAB: 155 (-1) LDM: 79 (+38) NAT: 11 (+5) GRN: 5 (+4) UKIP: 0 (-13) Other: 53 (+10) My Spreadsheet: docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/19Uxq67kX7TKszlfGPjbaCRcyFGKWjpMahZIWuelxBL8/edit#gid=1784007383I think that is certainly the reason why the numbers are different, though I wouldn't rule out a minor arithmetical error on my part. And although the numbers are different,because they employ different rules for inclusion, the impression they give is very similar. We are on the same ball park. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 10, 2019 6:50:48 GMT
My figures exclude deferred elections and but include by-elections held on the same day as the annual elections including "double" elections and the occasional "triple" election.
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 28, 2019 11:54:09 GMT
I'll look to work back on these over the weekend. There were 19 by-elections in the month of September 2019 with 6 changing hands (32%). These can be summarised by: | Party | Candidates | Defending | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | Retention Rate | | Conservative | 19 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 67% | | Labour | 16 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 100% | | Liberal Democrat | 18 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 100% | | Green | 12 |
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| | Brexit Party | 1 |
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| | SNP | 1 |
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| | Independent^ | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0% | | Localist^^ | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | | Other^^^ | 3 |
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| | Total | 76 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 68% |
^ There were 4 Independent candidates contesting 4 elections. ^^ Old Swan Against Cuts, Putting Cumbria First, Rochford District Residents ^^^ Liberal Party, Justice Party. Justice Party stood the same candidate in two elections. Conservatives gained three seats:- - Penrith South, Eden from Independent on 46% with an Independent in second on 39% with two other candidates. 2 member ward which had returned two Independents in 2019 but one Conservative and one Independent in 2015.
- Ryhall and Casterton, Rutland from Independent on 56% with the Liberal Democrats in second on 25% and Greens third on 19%.
2 member ward which had returned a Conservative and an Independent uncontested in 2019.
- Sweyne Park and Grange, Rochford from Rochford District Residents on 50% with the Liberal Democrats in second on 37% and Greens third on 13%.
3 member ward where the Conservatives won in 2019 and 2018 and which the Rochford District Residents have not contested since 2016.
Labour gained one seat:-
- Icknield, Luton from Conservative on 37% with the Conservatives in second on 35% with two other candidates representing a ~1.5% swing since 2019 and ~8.5% since 2015.
2 member ward which had returned two Conservatives since 2003.
Liberal Democrats gained two seats:-
- Middleton Cheney, South Northamptonshire from Conservative on 44% with the Conservatives in second on 39% with two other candidates representing a 6% swing since the 2018 by-election in the ward.
2 member ward which returned two Conservatives in 2011 and 2015 and one Conservative in the 2018 by-election.
- Vivary, Somerset West and Taunton from Conservative on 55% with the Conservatives in second on 26% with three other candidates representing an 11.5% swing since 2019.
2 member ward which returned one Liberal Democrat and one Conservative in 2019. |
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Post by robbienicoll on Sept 28, 2019 17:58:11 GMT
There were 9 by-elections in the month of August 2019 with 2 changing hands (22%). The results can be summarised by: | Party | Candidates | Defending | Retained | Gained | Lost | Won | Retention Rate | | Conservative | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 67% | | Labour | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0% | | Liberal Democrat | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 100% | | Green | 6 |
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| | SNP | 1 | 1 | 1 |
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| 1 | 100% | | UKIP | 2 |
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| | Brexit Party | 1 |
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| | Independent^ | 1 |
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| | Localist^^ | 1 |
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| 1 |
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| | Other^^^ | 1 |
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| | Total | 38 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 88% |
^ There was 1 Independent candidate contesting 1 election. ^^ Radcliffe First ^^^ Libertarian Party Conservatives lost 1 seat:- - Claines, Worcester to the Liberal Democrats with the Lib Dems on 48% and the Conservatives second on 46% with two other candidates representing a swing of ~2.5% from the Conservatives to Lib Dems since 2019 and 2.25% since 2018. 3 member ward which had returned Conservative every year since 2011. Before that it had returned Liberal Democrat every since present boundaries were created in 2004.Labour lost 1 seat:- - Radcliffe West, Bury to Radcliffe First with RF on 42% and Labour in second on 36% with three other candidates. Radcliffe First hadn't previously stood before. 3 member ward which had returned Labour every year since the present boundaries were created in 2004.
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