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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 16, 2019 9:49:34 GMT
That link doesn't work
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Oct 16, 2019 9:51:03 GMT
Did for me, but doesn’t now. 400 people surveyed in F & GG. Lib Dem 33%, Con 25%, Lab 21%. leaves an improbable 21% other
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 16, 2019 11:23:46 GMT
Seems Survation did a candidate-prompted version of this, but used Jeremy Newmark (the Labour candidate in 2017) as the presumed Labour candidate.
That's an interesting choice but may be problematic - not because he's a Corbynite, but because of the wide publicity given to inquiries over his conduct as CEO of the Jewish Leadership Council.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2019 11:40:12 GMT
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Survation
Oct 16, 2019 12:11:47 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 16, 2019 12:11:47 GMT
Well, we know constituency polls are pretty rubbish from 2015 (main exception Sheffield Hallam which was very close, several times) But to put Berger even remotely in contention in a Lab-Con marginal is extraordinary
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 17, 2019 0:32:03 GMT
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 17, 2019 9:07:34 GMT
Did for me, but doesn’t now. 400 people surveyed in F & GG. Lib Dem 33%, Con 25%, Lab 21%. leaves an improbable 21% other 400 people is quite low, even for a constituency poll.
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Survation
Oct 17, 2019 9:24:17 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 17, 2019 9:24:17 GMT
Did for me, but doesn’t now. 400 people surveyed in F & GG. Lib Dem 33%, Con 25%, Lab 21%. leaves an improbable 21% other 21% dont know sounds reasonable. Rather on the low side tbf (most people will not have heard of any of them)
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Survation
Oct 17, 2019 9:29:31 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Oct 17, 2019 9:29:31 GMT
Did for me, but doesn’t now. 400 people surveyed in F & GG. Lib Dem 33%, Con 25%, Lab 21%. leaves an improbable 21% other 400 people is quite low, even for a constituency poll. Yes, hard to do the demographics on that sample and I imagine the constituency has big "regional variations". So a bit voodoo, but if they have found 130 random people in F&GG who know who Luciana Berger is, she is doing quite well.
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Survation
Oct 17, 2019 9:36:11 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 17, 2019 9:36:11 GMT
It does now.. It looks like the Standard took it down to correct the reason for the Labour candidate withdrawing. Which they have done while leaving the implication in full view, which confirms my view that the Standard is going to turn out to be almost as Lib Dem as the Express is Tory in a GE..
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2019 1:14:17 GMT
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Post by carolus on Oct 29, 2019 11:23:09 GMT
Cambridge Lib Dems have had survation do a constituency poll, which has
LD 39 L 30 G 12 C 10
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 29, 2019 11:29:52 GMT
Cambridge Lib Dems have had survation do a constituency poll, which has
LD 39 L 30 G 12 C 10
That bar chart isn't distorted enough to have been genuinely made by the Lib Dems.
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Post by carolus on Oct 29, 2019 11:33:23 GMT
Cambridge Lib Dems have had survation do a constituency poll, which has
LD 39 L 30 G 12 C 10
That bar chart isn't distorted enough to have been genuinely made by the Lib Dems. At least they've remembered their "can't win here".
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2019 11:53:54 GMT
Cambridge Lib Dems have had survation do a constituency poll, which has LD 39 L 30 G 12 C 10
I do expect the Lib Dems to gain Cambridge from Labour but I can think of very few other seats where this is likely (Sheffield Hallam obviously and Leeds NW may be a decent bet)
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 29, 2019 11:57:17 GMT
The Lib Dems clearly commissioned Survation to do a series of constituency polls. A select few of them have been published (Cambridge, Finchley and Golders Green). Most haven't. Draw your own conclusions about what the others might have indicated.
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Post by carolus on Oct 29, 2019 12:01:27 GMT
Cambridge Lib Dems have had survation do a constituency poll, which has LD 39 L 30 G 12 C 10
I do expect the Lib Dems to gain Cambridge from Labour but I can think of very few other seats where this is likely (Sheffield Hallam obviously and Leeds NW may be a decent bet) Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Portsmouth South?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2019 12:30:33 GMT
I do expect the Lib Dems to gain Cambridge from Labour but I can think of very few other seats where this is likely (Sheffield Hallam obviously and Leeds NW may be a decent bet) Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Portsmouth South? I wouldn't rule Bermondsey out but without Hughes it's going to be hard and Coyle is a pretty good fit for the kind of Remain voters who the Lib Dems would be targetting. Lib Dems are in a poor third in Portsmouth South now so I think they're out of the game there
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 12:34:23 GMT
I'd be gutted if Alex Sobel lost his seat he seems like a really good MP
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Survation
Oct 29, 2019 13:33:32 GMT
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Post by akmd on Oct 29, 2019 13:33:32 GMT
Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Portsmouth South? I wouldn't rule Bermondsey out but without Hughes it's going to be hard and Coyle is a pretty good fit for the kind of Remain voters who the Lib Dems would be targetting. Lib Dems are in a poor third in Portsmouth South now so I think they're out of the game there I agree with all of the above. The Lib Dem’s won’t gain any more than 4 seats from Labour. As usual, their main prospects are from the Conservatives and they could gain a number of the seats that they lost to the Tories in 2015 and maybe a few from 2010. They may even win a few that they’ve never won before (St Albans seems the most likely though as a local, Pete, you may well disagree).
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