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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2019 15:51:35 GMT
I wouldn't rule Bermondsey out but without Hughes it's going to be hard and Coyle is a pretty good fit for the kind of Remain voters who the Lib Dems would be targetting. Lib Dems are in a poor third in Portsmouth South now so I think they're out of the game there I agree with all of the above. The Lib Dem’s won’t gain any more than 4 seats from Labour. As usual, their main prospects are from the Conservatives and they could gain a number of the seats that they lost to the Tories in 2015 and maybe a few from 2010. They may even win a few that they’ve never won before (St Albans seems the most likely though as a local, Pete, you may well disagree). I think it's more likely than not unfortunately but not certain (probability about 55%). I expect they'll gain half a dozen others but not much more than that
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Deleted
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Oct 29, 2019 17:01:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 17:01:54 GMT
I wouldn't rule Bermondsey out but without Hughes it's going to be hard and Coyle is a pretty good fit for the kind of Remain voters who the Lib Dems would be targetting. Lib Dems are in a poor third in Portsmouth South now so I think they're out of the game there I agree with all of the above. The Lib Dem’s won’t gain any more than 4 seats from Labour. As usual, their main prospects are from the Conservatives and they could gain a number of the seats that they lost to the Tories in 2015 and maybe a few from 2010. They may even win a few that they’ve never won before (St Albans seems the most likely though as a local, Pete, you may well disagree). still convinced there are too many lib dems in st albans that vote tory nationally and always will
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2019 17:05:17 GMT
I agree with all of the above. The Lib Dem’s won’t gain any more than 4 seats from Labour. As usual, their main prospects are from the Conservatives and they could gain a number of the seats that they lost to the Tories in 2015 and maybe a few from 2010. They may even win a few that they’ve never won before (St Albans seems the most likely though as a local, Pete, you may well disagree). still convinced there are too many lib dems in st albans that vote tory nationally and always will They key issue is the normally stubborn Labour vote and whether that can be squeezed. The most recent evidence from local elections may not be too encouraging from your point of view or mine.
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Oct 29, 2019 17:07:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 17:07:03 GMT
still convinced there are too many lib dems in st albans that vote tory nationally and always will They key issue is the normally stubborn Labour vote and whether that can be squeezed. The most recent evidence from local elections may not be too encouraging from your point of view or mine. i can't say anything at the moment but who we choose as our parliamentary candidate could be quite deciding
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2019 17:09:23 GMT
They key issue is the normally stubborn Labour vote and whether that can be squeezed. The most recent evidence from local elections may not be too encouraging from your point of view or mine. i can't say anything at the moment but who we choose as our parliamentary candidate could be quite deciding I suppose Kerry Pollard won't stand again. Obviously he has been better at maintaining Labour's vote than other candidates they've had in recent years
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Oct 29, 2019 17:25:14 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 17:25:14 GMT
i can't say anything at the moment but who we choose as our parliamentary candidate could be quite deciding I suppose Kerry Pollard won't stand again. Obviously he has been better at maintaining Labour's vote than other candidates they've had in recent years he has been the only candidate we've had bar 2010
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2019 17:34:13 GMT
I suppose Kerry Pollard won't stand again. Obviously he has been better at maintaining Labour's vote than other candidates they've had in recent years he has been the only candidate we've had bar 2010 Indeed and the Labour result was notably poor then
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Oct 29, 2019 17:38:40 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 17:38:40 GMT
he has been the only candidate we've had bar 2010 Indeed and the Labour result was notably poor then not enough to get the lib dems over the line given the money poured into that campaign
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 29, 2019 17:40:54 GMT
Indeed and the Labour result was notably poor then not enough to get the lib dems over the line given the money poured into that campaign No indeed - they would need to be pushed down below 15% at least
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Survation
Oct 29, 2019 18:31:02 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 29, 2019 18:31:02 GMT
The Lib Dems clearly commissioned Survation to do a series of constituency polls. A select few of them have been published (Cambridge, Finchley and Golders Green). Most haven't. Draw your own conclusions about what the others might have indicated. That they are going to be released one per day for the next month? 😉
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Post by mrhell on Oct 29, 2019 18:49:22 GMT
The link to the Cambridge data tables is here and it looks perfectly robust without leading questions unlike our published constituency polls for the 2015 General Election.
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Post by pragmaticidealist on Oct 29, 2019 18:51:16 GMT
Those vote share changes aren't particularly out of line with the national polls.
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Oct 29, 2019 18:52:23 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2019 18:52:23 GMT
Naming the candidates without asking standard VI first is a trick the lib dems used in the run up the 2015 election too
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 29, 2019 19:00:07 GMT
The link to the Cambridge data tables is here and it looks perfectly robust without leading questions unlike our published constituency polls for the 2015 General Election. I would have been surprised if the LDs hadn't been ahead.
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 29, 2019 20:39:28 GMT
The bar charts are not distorted at all. But it is Cambridge where people might understand such things.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Oct 30, 2019 23:36:13 GMT
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Post by edgbaston on Oct 31, 2019 0:26:31 GMT
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Oct 31, 2019 18:27:49 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2019 18:27:49 GMT
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 31, 2019 19:37:12 GMT
There is likely to be a lot more tactical voting this time (and perhaps also a lot of "Brexit trumps Party" voting). What effect it will have in any given place is anyone's guess at this stage.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 31, 2019 21:29:26 GMT
It was certainly a major factor in 2017 where the "stop the tories" coalition got its shit together. Need to do at least as well this time to avert disaster!
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