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Post by justin124 on Aug 14, 2019 18:02:40 GMT
This appears to be a UK - rather than GB - poll. To obtain GB equivalent, circa 1% needs to be added to vote shares of main parties.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 16, 2019 10:16:30 GMT
Survation have done their polls UK-wide for a while now, and a few other pollsters have followed suit at least occasionally.
A return to the "good old days" of polling in that respect.
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Post by thinwhiteduke on Aug 30, 2019 21:55:12 GMT
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
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Post by middyman on Aug 30, 2019 22:37:10 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2019 9:39:03 GMT
Swinson moves ahead of Corbyn... (just mentioning it since some people seem to find this interesting)
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Post by matureleft on Aug 31, 2019 9:53:17 GMT
Virtually uncontested coverage (and a largely fawning mainstream media) until the last couple of days. Recesses can be like that anyway (any government has an inbuilt advantage) but the various opposition parties have been caught off balance with a steady flow of Johnson initiatives, spurious or mysteriously funded though they might be.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 31, 2019 10:08:02 GMT
Though it has to be said this survey's general findings are more favourable for the government (and pro-Brexiters) than other "snap" polling since Wednesday.
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Deleted
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Survation
Aug 31, 2019 10:08:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2019 10:08:05 GMT
Who might those people be?
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Deleted
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Survation
Sept 6, 2019 21:56:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2019 21:56:54 GMT
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Survation
Sept 6, 2019 22:10:23 GMT
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Sept 6, 2019 22:10:23 GMT
Seems a pretty consistent trend that we’ve dipped below 20%, into the high-teens. Still a great place to start a GE campaign from for us!
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Post by Andrew_S on Sept 6, 2019 22:34:49 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Sept 6, 2019 23:07:38 GMT
On that poll (+ latest Scot poll), EC gives us: Con 306 Lab 219 LD 44 SNP 51 BXP 8 PC 3 Grn 1 NI 18 usual maths re the inevitable Brexit issue gives;
Con + BXP = 314 Lab + LD + Nats + Grn = 323 So no majority for any likely coalition
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Post by justin124 on Sept 7, 2019 0:54:33 GMT
On that poll (+ latest Scot poll), EC gives us: Con 306 Lab 219 LD 44 SNP 51 BXP 8 PC 3 Grn 1 NI 18 usual maths re the inevitable Brexit issue gives; Con + BXP = 314 Lab + LD + Nats + Grn = 323 So no majority for any likely coalition On the basis of UNS , Labour would lose 16 seats to the Tories on those figures - though 11 of the defending Labour MPs could expect a first term incumbency bonus.Labour would also lose 4 seats to LDs and 6 to SNP. Overall Labour would end up on 236 - though 3 of the 4 projected losses to the LDs seem unlikely given that Simon Hughes and Greg Mulholland are not standing again. The Tories would lose 17 seats to LDs and circa 10 to SNP to give them a total of 306. LDs would emerge with 34 seats.
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Post by andrewp on Sept 7, 2019 7:55:29 GMT
323 is an effective majority (just about) assuming Sinn Fein hold their 7 seats since only 643 seats would be occupied. If they lose any, they'd be to the SDLP which would strengthen the centre-left further It is an effective majority. Alternatively, depending how many the DUP hold, on those numbers, there is possibly a theoretical effective majority for Con + DUP + Brexit.
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Post by gasman2019 on Sept 7, 2019 8:13:39 GMT
On that poll (+ latest Scot poll), EC gives us: Con 306 Lab 219 LD 44 SNP 51 BXP 8 PC 3 Grn 1 NI 18 usual maths re the inevitable Brexit issue gives;
Con + BXP = 314 Lab + LD + Nats + Grn = 323 So no majority for any likely coalition I think you miscalculated, Lab + Lib Dems + Nats + Grn = 318 Cons + BXP = 314 Then the 18 NI seats and as SF wont take their seats Cons + BXP + DUP/Unioniste will have a majority.
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Deleted
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Survation
Sept 7, 2019 8:49:19 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 8:49:19 GMT
Brexit will only do a deal for no deal
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 9:14:35 GMT
Brexit will only do a deal for no deal That is one reason why they won't get one. Boris is not going to come out for no deal because: - 1. he is not personally completely committed to it, 2. his electoral strategy (not to mention party management) is based on keeping open the options of deal or no deal, 3. the Conservative party doesn't do electoral carve-ups (like Labour and for similar reasons), and 4. Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage don't hold each other in very high regard anyway.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 7, 2019 9:55:47 GMT
But yet again, there are reports this morning that the Tories and BxP have had "discussions".
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
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Post by polupolu on Sept 7, 2019 11:11:38 GMT
But yet again, there are reports this morning that the Tories and BxP have had "discussions". We live in unusual times, so this is possible; whatever previous Conservative approaches may have been.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 7, 2019 11:26:41 GMT
But yet again, there are reports this morning that the Tories and BxP have had "discussions". We live in unusual times, so this is possible; whatever previous Conservative approaches may have been. The Daily Telegraph reports that ERG members have been in contact with Nigel Farage. My guess is that any such contacts are either unauthorised or some kind of fishing expedition for intelligence about what Farage is up to.
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