Deleted
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Jan 12, 2019 14:46:48 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 14:46:48 GMT
no deal ain't happening. You come back with a new deal. That presupposes that there is some deal that could command majority support and be agreed by the EU. I'm highly sceptical of that. The question of which deal and incompetent leader is negotiating the deal is largely irrelevant. Sooner or later it will come down to a choice of do we leave with no deal or not leave. And the sooner we make that choice the better. there will never be no deal. Everyone from Larry Elliot to Mark Carney is saying this.
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Jan 12, 2019 14:48:08 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 14:48:08 GMT
I'm also sceptical about the benefits of a generic remain - leave question. If there were to be a referendum it would surely be on one or more specific options for leave, all of which command less support than a generic leave. If we're still at remain or an unspecified leave then we really have come nowhere in two and a half years. Exactly right- "we really have come nowhere in two and a half years". Maybe we should own up to that and start all over again, starting by cancelling A50. revoking or extending A50 might what needs to happen and fhere3 seems to be a growing feeling thats ehat will happen
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J.G.Harston
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 12, 2019 15:04:20 GMT
I agree. I'd much prefer Yes or No to the current deal Of course the argument then if No wins, is whether we default to the current status quo eg remain, or to the outcome of Referendum 1 eg no deal This is why I am against referendums Problem is, the current status quo isn't Remain, it's Leave With No Deal. The status quo needs to be changed. Which is why, coming from my direction, I'm against pre-legislative referendums.
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Deleted
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Jan 12, 2019 15:07:35 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 15:07:35 GMT
Of course the argument then if No wins, is whether we default to the current status quo eg remain, or to the outcome of Referendum 1 eg no deal This is why I am against referendums Problem is, the current status quo isn't Remain, it's Leave With No Deal. The status quo needs to be changed. Which is why, coming from my direction, I'm against pre-legislative referendums. I do wonder why there wasn't a withdrawal bill before the vote. There was a white paper on the Scotland Act before the referendum and devolution of tax powers in Wales before their referendum.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jan 12, 2019 15:10:03 GMT
Problem is, the current status quo isn't Remain, it's Leave With No Deal. The status quo needs to be changed. Which is why, coming from my direction, I'm against pre-legislative referendums. I do wonder why there wasn't a withdrawal bill before the vote. There was a white paper on the Scotland Act before the referendum and devolution of tax powers in Wales before their referendum. Dave "Trust me, I'll implement the result" Cameron. By not wanting to be remembered as the Prime Minister who plunged the country into Brexit Chaos and running away, he'll be remembered as the Prime Minister who ran away and plunged the country into Brexit Chaos.
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 12, 2019 15:11:06 GMT
Exactly right- "we really have come nowhere in two and a half years". Maybe we should own up to that and start all over again, starting by cancelling A50. revoking or extending A50 might what needs to happen and fhere3 seems to be a growing feeling thats ehat will happen Extending A50 has to have a purpose. No-one can agree what that purpose should be. Parliament unilaterally revoking A50 would be, in Sir Humphrey-speak, courageous.
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Post by pepperminttea on Jan 12, 2019 15:35:11 GMT
That presupposes that there is some deal that could command majority support and be agreed by the EU. I'm highly sceptical of that. The question of which deal and incompetent leader is negotiating the deal is largely irrelevant. Sooner or later it will come down to a choice of do we leave with no deal or not leave. And the sooner we make that choice the better. there will never be no deal. Everyone from Larry Elliot to Mark Carney is saying this. All that no deal would require to happen is for the clock to run out with nothing being done regardless of how much parliament declares that they're 'taking no deal off the table'. Now I agree I don't think that this is likely but it's hardly an impossible scenario.
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Deleted
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Jan 12, 2019 16:19:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 16:19:05 GMT
there will never be no deal. Everyone from Larry Elliot to Mark Carney is saying this. All that no deal would require to happen is for the clock to run out with nothing being done regardless of how much parliament declares that they're 'taking no deal off the table'. Now I agree I don't think that this is likely but it's hardly an impossible scenario. its not impossible but Carney and Larry Elliott say theres 10% probability of it happening. A50 will be revoked before it does
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Jan 12, 2019 16:19:42 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 16:19:42 GMT
revoking or extending A50 might what needs to happen and fhere3 seems to be a growing feeling thats ehat will happen Extending A50 has to have a purpose. No-one can agree what that purpose should be. Parliament unilaterally revoking A50 would be, in Sir Humphrey-speak, courageous. to strike a new deal surely?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 12, 2019 16:35:41 GMT
Extending A50 has to have a purpose. No-one can agree what that purpose should be. Parliament unilaterally revoking A50 would be, in Sir Humphrey-speak, courageous. to strike a new deal surely? But you would need a GE before trying a new deal. So why not make the deal (which only runs to 2021), and then have a GE to sort the long term arrangement?
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Jan 12, 2019 16:41:07 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 16:41:07 GMT
to strike a new deal surely? But you would need a GE before trying a new deal. So why not make the deal (which only runs to 2021), and then have a GE to sort the long term arrangement? why would you need a GE?
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jan 12, 2019 16:46:52 GMT
But you would need a GE before trying a new deal. So why not make the deal (which only runs to 2021), and then have a GE to sort the long term arrangement? why would you need a GE? Who would negotiate the deal from the UK? edit: and what would be your negotiating strategy? Do you say: give us this deal or we leave with no deal, or: give us this deal or we stay?
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Merseymike
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Jan 12, 2019 17:07:46 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 12, 2019 17:07:46 GMT
Of course the argument then if No wins, is whether we default to the current status quo eg remain, or to the outcome of Referendum 1 eg no deal This is why I am against referendums Problem is, the current status quo isn't Remain, it's Leave With No Deal. The status quo needs to be changed. Which is why, coming from my direction, I'm against pre-legislative referendums. We haven't left yet! So if No wins do we scrap A50 or implement it as it would have to be suspended to hold a second referendum - a decision would be required. I'm against all referendums full stop.
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Jan 12, 2019 17:08:05 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 17:08:05 GMT
Who would negotiate the deal from the UK? edit: and what would be your negotiating strategy? Do you say: give us this deal or we leave with no deal, or: give us this deal or we stay? well unless there is a change in government theresa may continues to negiotate. The strategy is to get a deal people will vote for and we're not going to leave with a deal or remain. We will negotiate until we have a deal people will vote for
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Merseymike
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Jan 12, 2019 17:10:07 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 12, 2019 17:10:07 GMT
revoking or extending A50 might what needs to happen and fhere3 seems to be a growing feeling thats ehat will happen Extending A50 has to have a purpose. No-one can agree what that purpose should be. Parliament unilaterally revoking A50 would be, in Sir Humphrey-speak, courageous. I thought a general election or a second referendum were the only things it would be considered for?
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 12, 2019 17:28:46 GMT
A50 cannot be unilaterally extended. I would have thought that the chaos that uncertainty about UK's continuing membership or not would bring to the European elections in May might make the EU slightly reluctant to consider it without a very good reason.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 12, 2019 17:32:43 GMT
Who would negotiate the deal from the UK? edit: and what would be your negotiating strategy? Do you say: give us this deal or we leave with no deal, or: give us this deal or we stay? well unless there is a change in government theresa may continues to negiotate. The strategy is to get a deal people will vote for and we're not going to leave with a deal or remain. We will negotiate until we have a deal people will vote for Is there any evidence that any such hypothetical deal even exists? At most the support for leave is a few percent over 50, so any potential deal can only lose a few percent to still command a majority, but there doesn't seem to be enough common ground amongst those c.52% for that to be possible...
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Jan 12, 2019 17:40:31 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 17:40:31 GMT
well unless there is a change in government theresa may continues to negiotate. The strategy is to get a deal people will vote for and we're not going to leave with a deal or remain. We will negotiate until we have a deal people will vote for Is there any evidence that any such hypothetical deal even exists? At most the support for leave is a few percent over 50, so any potential deal can only lose a few percent to still command a majority, but there doesn't seem to be enough common ground amongst those c.52% for that to be possible... a deal won't be agreed by YouGov online panel. If you never did anything because you didn't think it would pass ypudnever do anything
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Post by lancastrian on Jan 12, 2019 19:01:04 GMT
Who would negotiate the deal from the UK? edit: and what would be your negotiating strategy? Do you say: give us this deal or we leave with no deal, or: give us this deal or we stay? well unless there is a change in government theresa may continues to negiotate. The strategy is to get a deal people will vote for and we're not going to leave with a deal or remain. We will negotiate until we have a deal people will vote for <iframe width="17.24000000000001" height="6.980000000000018" style="position: absolute; width: 17.24000000000001px; height: 6.980000000000018px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_44901380" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17.24000000000001" height="6.980000000000018" style="position: absolute; width: 17.24px; height: 6.98px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 808px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_95851900" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17.24000000000001" height="6.980000000000018" style="position: absolute; width: 17.24px; height: 6.98px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 287px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_3008705" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17.24000000000001" height="6.980000000000018" style="position: absolute; width: 17.24px; height: 6.98px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 808px; top: 287px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_87279894" scrolling="no"></iframe> We can't negotiate alone. The deal we have now is the only deal the EU is interested in. Corbyn probably won't get anything else except perhaps EEA, but his election is the only plausible reason to go back to the negotiating table. Another year or whatever of May negotiating will just extend the current deadlock.
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Deleted
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Jan 12, 2019 19:35:03 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jan 12, 2019 19:35:03 GMT
well unless there is a change in government theresa may continues to negiotate. The strategy is to get a deal people will vote for and we're not going to leave with a deal or remain. We will negotiate until we have a deal people will vote for <iframe width="17.24000000000001" height="6.980000000000018" style="position: absolute; width: 17.24000000000001px; height: 6.980000000000018px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none;left: 15px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_44901380" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17.24000000000001" height="6.980000000000018" style="position: absolute; width: 17.24px; height: 6.98px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 808px; top: -5px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_95851900" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17.24000000000001" height="6.980000000000018" style="position: absolute; width: 17.24px; height: 6.98px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 15px; top: 287px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_3008705" scrolling="no"></iframe> <iframe width="17.24000000000001" height="6.980000000000018" style="position: absolute; width: 17.24px; height: 6.98px; z-index: -9999; border-style: none; left: 808px; top: 287px;" id="MoatPxIOPT0_87279894" scrolling="no"></iframe> We can't negotiate alone. The deal we have now is the only deal the EU is interested in. Corbyn probably won't get anything else except perhaps EEA, but his election is the only plausible reason to go back to the negotiating table. Another year or whatever of May negotiating will just extend the current deadlock. if this deal doesn't go through and A50 is revoked what incentive is there to keep pushing for this deal
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