Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,140
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Post by Jack on Jul 2, 2017 0:37:17 GMT
Crosstabs are interesting to say the least - apparently the Tories have overwhelming leads in, er, Scotland and Wales. Chuck this one in the bin. Well, they were the most accurate pollster in the election...
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 2, 2017 0:39:16 GMT
Crosstabs are interesting to say the least - apparently the Tories have overwhelming leads in, er, Scotland and Wales. Chuck this one in the bin. I don't think that's how opinion polls work. The sub-samples are unreliable but the overall sample is reliable (within a certain margin of error).
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Post by tamar on Jul 2, 2017 0:42:49 GMT
Crosstabs are interesting to say the least - apparently the Tories have overwhelming leads in, er, Scotland and Wales. Chuck this one in the bin. Well, they were the most accurate pollster in the election... Well, there are two possibilities - either there has been a 20-point swing to the Tories in Wales for no reason whatsoever, or someone has put out a strange poll, I know where I'd put my money. The NI crosstabs are even more distressing if less relevant - apparently the UUP has dissolved without telling anyone!
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Richard Allen
Banned
Four time loser in VUKPOTY finals
Posts: 19,052
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 2, 2017 2:02:23 GMT
Well, they were the most accurate pollster in the election... Well, there are two possibilities - either there has been a 20-point swing to the Tories in Wales for no reason whatsoever, or someone has put out a strange poll, I know where I'd put my money. The NI crosstabs are even more distressing if less relevant - apparently the UUP has dissolved without telling anyone! The obvious explanation here is that your understanding of opinion polling is woefully lacking.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 2, 2017 7:30:48 GMT
Crosstabs are interesting to say the least - apparently the Tories have overwhelming leads in, er, Scotland and Wales. Chuck this one in the bin. I don't think that's how opinion polls work. The sub-samples are unreliable but the overall sample is reliable (within a certain margin of error). How many times do we have to say this? Anthony Wells on UK Polling Report has to say it at least once a week. Sub-samples cannot be looked at as giving accurate figures. It's a waste of time looking at them.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,702
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2017 9:18:41 GMT
That is absolutely true, but nonetheless REALLY WEIRD sub-samples can be a reason to treat a poll with caution.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2017 9:41:48 GMT
If the Tories pick a new leader the next election may not be a 1997-style Labour win in that case.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2017 13:49:19 GMT
Corbyn's peaked.
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iolo
Non-Aligned
Posts: 287
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Post by iolo on Jul 2, 2017 13:54:29 GMT
Whereas Mrs May and her tories will obviously win outright the next elections in Hell?
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,702
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 2, 2017 14:14:27 GMT
Regardless of your personal view of Jez, that is a ridiculous statement. Behave
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 2, 2017 15:25:12 GMT
Regardless of your personal view of Jez, that is a ridiculous statement. Behave While I read very, very little into a single opinion poll, I do think Corbyn may peak very quickly. There's a degree of euphoria after the election result which is perfectly understandable, but these things can be hard to sustain. And it seems to me that he has done so well in mobilising the sort of people who like his sort of thing, that I think it will be hard to do much more of the same thing without diminishing returns. Above all, I just don't think he's any good. Maybe I'm wrong, but that's how I felt about May (though nowhere as strongly as Khunanup and Richard Allen, who I think deserve some sort of award for being the first to call May as useless.) Case in point: I listened to his speech to Glasto with interest because it was getting so many "likes" and after a few minutes started to drift off with boredom. The only memorable or impressive bit was a quote from Shelley. I daresay it was different if you were there.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 2, 2017 16:08:02 GMT
We have the politics and we have and the polls that we have because over a third of the electorate treat the whole matter just as they do 'Big Brother' or 'Britain's Got Talent'. The swop and change, love and hate with a supreme ephemerality that defies logic or much belief in the settled common purpose of the people.
They don't really know what they want, refuse to grapple at all with how it is to be paid for, have zero sense of responsibility for anything including their own lives, a very strongly cultivated theory of blame, and they resentfully want it ALL NOW without being quite sure what it is.
We bred up this useless underclass of gormless know-nothing do-nothings and must now live with the unpleasing consequences.
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Post by John Chanin on Jul 2, 2017 16:25:07 GMT
We have the politics and we have and the polls that we have because over a third of the electorate treat the whole matter just as they do 'Big Brother' or 'Britain's Got Talent'. The swop and change, love and hate with a supreme ephemerality that defies logic or much belief in the settled common purpose of the people. They don't really know what they want, refuse to grapple at all with how it is to be paid for, have zero sense of responsibility for anything including their own lives, a very strongly cultivated theory of blame, and they resentfully want it ALL NOW without being quite sure what it is. We bred up this useless underclass of gormless know-nothing do-nothings and must now live with the unpleasing consequences. Democracy mate. Conservatives have been hating it for 2500 years.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 2, 2017 16:32:12 GMT
We have the politics and we have and the polls that we have because over a third of the electorate treat the whole matter just as they do 'Big Brother' or 'Britain's Got Talent'. The swop and change, love and hate with a supreme ephemerality that defies logic or much belief in the settled common purpose of the people. They don't really know what they want, refuse to grapple at all with how it is to be paid for, have zero sense of responsibility for anything including their own lives, a very strongly cultivated theory of blame, and they resentfully want it ALL NOW without being quite sure what it is. We bred up this useless underclass of gormless know-nothing do-nothings and must now live with the unpleasing consequences. Democracy mate. Conservatives have been hating it for 2500 years.party conference in 484 BC must have been interesting.
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Jul 2, 2017 16:58:31 GMT
Democracy mate. Conservatives have been hating it for 2500 years.party conference in 484 BC must have been interesting. Presumably defence was the most contentious issue, with the Servitude Abolitionists denying the possibility let alone likelihood of a Persian invasion.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 2, 2017 17:16:28 GMT
party conference in 484 BC must have been interesting. Presumably defence was the most contentious issue, with the Servitude Abolitionists denying the possibility let alone likelihood of a Persian invasion. Rival amendments commended/condemned the failed uprisings in Babylon and Egypt.
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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Post by middyman on Jul 2, 2017 17:35:05 GMT
Presumably defence was the most contentious issue, with the Servitude Abolitionists denying the possibility let alone likelihood of a Persian invasion. Rival amendments commended/condemned the failed uprisings in Babylon and Egypt. Fortunately, calls to cut defence expenditure went unheeded.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,290
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jul 2, 2017 18:29:38 GMT
Presumably defence was the most contentious issue, with the Servitude Abolitionists denying the possibility let alone likelihood of a Persian invasion. Rival amendments commended/condemned the failed uprisings in Babylon and Egypt. Fortunately, the compositing committee was able to create a motion that satisfied both sides.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 2, 2017 19:02:14 GMT
Democracy mate. Conservatives have been hating it for 2500 years.party conference in 484 BC must have been interesting. Oh! You had to be there Finso, to get the full force of the reaction to an imposed foreign currency from some place called Europe! And the toga jokes!
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 2, 2017 20:22:21 GMT
Rival amendments commended/condemned the failed uprisings in Babylon and Egypt. Fortunately, the compositing committee was able to create a motion that satisfied both sides. The fringe meeting of the Babylon Solidarity committee got a bit lively, I hear.
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