Local Council Elections in Worcestershire

[middleenglander]

Worcestershire is a three tier authority with a County Council, 6 District Councils and some 180 Parish / Town Councils. The District Councils are Bromsgrove, Malvern Hills, Redditch, Worcester, Wychavon and Wyre Forest.

Bromsgrove, Malvern Hills and Wychavon have traditionally held elections every 4 years, ie recently in 2011, 2015 and 2019. The other 3 authorities have held elections each year apart from when the County Council was elected, recently 2009, 2013 and 2017, although Wyre Forest has now changed at the 2019 election to a four yearly cycle with the next election due in 2023.

Immediately after the 2015 election Conservatives held 5 of the District Councils with Redditch a hung Council with Labour the largest party. Following the 2019 elections, Conservatives hold Bromsgrove, Redditch and Wychavon, the largest group in an all party administration in Worcester and whilst the largest party in both Malvern Hills and Wyre Forest both these councils are now run by a coalition of several parties / groupings.

The number of Councillors by party etc in 2015 and now is shown by:

Party	At May 2015	At May 2019	Changes
Conservative	134	115	-19
Labour	40	34	-6
Liberal Democrat *	11	21	+10
Green	4	11	+7
UKIP	4		-4
Independent / No Description	13	21	+8
Independent Health Concern	2	8	+6
Wythall Residents	3	1	-2
Total	211	211

* 2015 includes 1 Liberal who was and now is a Liberal Democrat

Thus Worcestershire has overall followed a similar pattern to the national scene with both Conservative and Labour as well as UKIP losing seats to the Liberal Democrats, Greens and Independents.  However the pattern is more mixed when considering the recent voting history of the individual councils.

I hope over the next couple of days or so to consider each authority in turn.

[middleenglander]

Bromsgrove

Bromsgrove Council has been a Conservative run council in recent times, winning 67% of the seats in 2003 and 2007 as well as 69% in 2011 on former boundaries,  although Labour did run it for a time in the middle 1990's.   There were boundary changes in 2015 which reduced the number of councillors from 39 to 31, now with 29 single member and 1 two member wards.  In both 2015 and 2019 all the wards were contested with Conservatives winning 58% of the seats in 2015 and 55% in 2019.

The election results for 2015 and 2019 can be summarised by:

Party	Candidates 2015	Candidates   2019	Candidates   change	Councillors   2015	Councillors   2019	Councillors   change	Vote share *   2015	Vote share *   2019	Vote share *   change
Conservative	31	31	0	18	17	-1	49.2%	41.9%	-7.3%
Labour	20	24	+4	7	5	-2	25.2%	22.0%	-3.2%
Liberal Democrat	4	14	+10		3	+3	2.3%	10.9%	+8.6%
Green	8	4	-4				3.6%	1.9%	-1.7%
UKIP	6		-6				4.2%		-4.2%
Wythall Residents	4	4	0	3	1	-2	6.5%	5.3%	-1.2%
Independent	7	9	+2	3	5	+2	9.0%	17.9%	+8.9%
Total	80	86	+6	31	31		100%	100%

* based on the average vote share in the 2 member ward for both 2015 and 2019

The total number of votes cast in 2019 was almost exactly 50% of those in 2015.

There was however a significant churn in the councillors:
Conservatives gained 2 from Labour and 2 from Wythall Residents but lost 3 to Liberal Democrats and 2 to Independents, one confirming a by-election win.
- two of the three Liberal Democrat gains were in wards which they did not contest in 2015.

Independents gained the previous Conservative wards of Alvechurch South (73% share in 2015 ) and Alvechurch Village (46% share in 2015), both where UKIP was the runner up in 2015, adding to the previous 2015 wins in the 2 Hagley seats and Barnt Green & Hopwood.  Some of these at least are considered due to a continuing anger over the Local Development Plan proposals.

[middleenglander]

Malvern Hills

Malvern Hills had been under Conservative control since 2007 although in 2003 Liberal Democrats did secure 50% of the seats.  Then in 2007 the Conservatives took control of the Council winning 76% of the seats, falling to 55% in 2011 before rising to 61% in 2015 and now down to 34%.   The boundaries have been unchanged over this period, comprising 3 three member wards, 10 two member wards and 9 single member wards - a total of 22 wards electing 38 councillors. 

However, the district has seen a number of seats elected unopposed over the years: 3 in 2003, 5 in 2007, 8 in 2011, 2 in 2015 and 4 in 2019.  This results in a more complex comparison between the years, with 4 seats in 3 wards being uncontested this year, another 2 whilst contested this year were unopposed in both 2011 and 2015 and a further 4 seats in 3 wards unopposed in 2011.  For example, the last time Baldwin ward was contested was in 2003, when the Conservative share was 69% against Liberal Democrat 31% compared to 78% Conservative, 22% Liberal Democrat this year.   Lindridge was similarly Conservative 71%, Liberal Democrat 29% in 2003 compared to Conservative 69%, Liberal Democrat 31% recently.

A comparison between this year and 2015 is therefore restricted to 17 of the 22 wards whereas a similar comparison between 2011, 2015 and 2019 is restricted to 14 wards.   All share calculations are based on average party votes in multi-member wards whilst No Descriptions in 2019 have been classed as Independents for the purpose of the resultant calculation.

Party	Candidates  2011	Candidates  2015	Candidates  2019	Councillors  2011	Councillors    2015	Councillors  2019	Share   14 wards   2011	Share   14 wards   2015	Share   14 wards   2019	Share   17 wards   2015	Share   17 wards   2019
Conservative	35	37	32	21	23	13	44.6%	33.4%	26.3%	34.8%	27.9%
Labour		9	8			1		6.5%	7.8%	7.0%	6.9%
Liberal Democrat	15	13	27	11	5	9	24.8%	15.9%	24.2%	14.1%	21.9%
Green	6	12	6	2	3	5	10.5%	11.8%	12.0%	10.8%	11.5%
UKIP	8	9	7				10.4%	11.5%	5.0%	10.2%	4.5%
Independent ^	7	14	6	4	7	5	6.6%	20.9%	24.6%	23.2%	27.4%
No Description ^			8			5
Other	3						3.1%
Total	74	94	94	38	38	38	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

^ Independent and No Description votes added together for share calculation purpose.

In multi-member wards where there is not the full range of candidates for each party, the share calculation using average votes can be significantly distorted.  For the current year the declaration included the number of ballot papers counted which enables a share calculation to be made for the larger parties share against this number.  The Conservative share for the 17 wards was 30.0% compared to the 27.9% using average votes whilst for the 14 wards it was 28.6% against 26.3%.  The average votes share calculation may therefore depress the Conservative share  by around 2%.  Unfortunately the Malvern Hills website does not show the comparable information for 2011 and 2007 so the average share method remains the most appropriate for comparison.

Conservatives lost 10 seats compared to 2015, seeing their share fall some 7% since 4 years ago, although the 2015 share was already around 10% down on 2011; the seat losses were 4 to Liberal Democrats, 3 No Description, 2 Green and 1 Labour.  Liberal Democrats more than doubled the number of candidates this year compared to 2015 but, whilst gaining 4 seats, the actual number won was lower than in 2011. 

Approaching half of the total seats are within Malvern its self, 17 in 7 wards out of 38.  Here the Conservatives lost 8 seats, falling from 10 in 2015 (8 in 2011) to just 2 (the same as in 2003).  However, the fall in the Conservative share in these 7 Malvern wards compared to 2015 at 3.9% was somewhat lower than the circa 7% across the District, although 15% compared to 2011 against 18.3% across the 14 wards.  

The Conservatives undoubtedly performed poorly within Malvern Hills but possibly not quite as bad as the reduced number of seats would suggest.  However the fall-out from the South Worcestershire Development Plan may well have played a significant part in addition to the national scene.

[middleenglander]

Wychavon

Wychavon has been under Conservative control since 1987 apart from 1995 to 1999.  New boundaries were introduced in 2003 comprising 1 three member ward,  11 two member wards and 20, single member wards - a total of 32 wards electing 45 councillors.   In 2003 the Conservatives won 69% of the seats, rising to 78% in 2007, 84% in 2011, 87% in 2015 before falling back to 80% this year.

However, the district has seen a number of seats elected unopposed over the years: 2 in 2003, 1 in 2007, 12 in 2011, 4 in 2015 and 8 in 2019.  This results in a more complex comparison between the years, with 8 seats in 7 wards being uncontested this year, 1 ward whilst contested this year was unopposed in both 2011 and 2015, 2 wards contested this year were unopposed in 2015 with a further 6 wards unopposed in 2011.

A comparison between this year and 2015 is therefore restricted to 22 of the 32 wards whereas a similar comparison between 2011, 2015 and 2019 is restricted to 16 wards.   All share calculations are based on average party votes in multi-member wards whilst No Descriptions in 2019 have been classed as Independents for the purpose of the resultant calculation.

Party	Candidates  2011	Candidates  2015	Candidates  2019	Councillors  2011	Councillors    2015	Councillors  2019	Share   16 wards   2011	Share   16 wards   2015	Share   16 wards   2019	Share   22 wards   2015	Share   22 wards   2019
Conservative	44	45	43	39	39	36	52.5%	44.0%	49.3%	48.2%	50.0%
Labour	11	9	10	1			11.2%	9.3%	9.8%	7.3%	8.2%
Liberal Democrat	24	20	23	5	5	6	24.3%	15.8%	29.3%	14.1%	24.5%
Green	2	13	9			2	4.0%	10.6%	6.9%	11.8%	8.8%
UKIP		12			1			15.1%		13.6%
Independent ^	5	5	5			1	8.1%	5.3%	4.7%	4.4%	8.2%
No Description ^			1
Other		1	1							0.6%	0.4%
Total	86	105	92	45	45	45	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

^ independent and No Description added together for share purpose.

The 2011 figures include a postponed election following the death of one of the candidates

In multi-member wards where there is not the full range of candidates for each party, the share calculation using average votes can be significantly distorted.  For all three years considered the declarations include the number of ballot papers counted which enables a share calculation to be made for the larger parties share against this number.  This gives the Conservatives a share of a little over 1% greater than the average method for 2011 and 2015 but little different for 2019.

The Conservative gained 2 seats, 1 from UKIP where the former Councillor had previously defected and now stood as a Conservative together with 1 from a Liberal Democrat that was unopposed.  They lost 5 seats, 2 to Liberal Democrats in a previous split ward, 2 to Greens in the same ward and 1 to an Independent.  A relatively satisfactory performance from the Conservative perspective apart from some specific wards which may relate to planning issues.

[greenchristian]

May 25, 2019 9:34:02 GMT middleenglander said:

Immediately after the 2015 election Conservatives held 5 of the District Councils with Redditch a hung Council with Labour the largest party. Following the 2019 elections, Conservatives hold Bromsgrove, Redditch and Wychavon, run a minority administration in Worcester and whilst the largest party in both Malvern Hills and Wyre Forest both these councils are now run by a coalition of several parties / groupings.

The bolded part is incorrect. Worcester has an all-party administration run via the committee system, and this has been the case for several years now.

[middleenglander]

May 26, 2019 17:03:05 GMT greenchristian said:

May 25, 2019 9:34:02 GMT middleenglander said:

Immediately after the 2015 election Conservatives held 5 of the District Councils with Redditch a hung Council with Labour the largest party. Following the 2019 elections, Conservatives hold Bromsgrove, Redditch and Wychavon, run a minority administration in Worcester and whilst the largest party in both Malvern Hills and Wyre Forest both these councils are now run by a coalition of several parties / groupings.

The bolded part is incorrect. Worcester has an all-party administration run via the committee system, and this has been the case for several years now.

Thanks, now corrected

[middleenglander]

Redditch

Elections since 1973 have returned a Labour council for 30 years, Conservative 13 years and no overall control for 4. Since boundary changes in 2004, there have been five 3 member wards and seven 2 member wards - a total of 12 wards electing 29 councillors.  Ten councillors are elected in two years of the electoral cycle with nine on the third.   None of the contests in at least the recent past have been unopposed with Conservative and Labour contesting all of the elections and being the only ones returned since 2010 apart from 2 UKIP in 2014.

The headline statistics since 2015 can be summarised by:

Party	2015   Candidates	2016   Candidates	2018   Candidates	2019   Candidates	2015   Elected	2016   Elected	2018   Elected	2019   Elected	Councillors    2018	Councillors   2019
Numbers of seats
- annual elections	10	9	10	10
- byelections	1
Conservative	11	9	10	10	8 + 1	2	7	9	17	18
Labour	11	9	10	10	2	7	3	1	12	11
Liberal Democrat	7	9	7	8
Green	11	9	10	10
UKIP	11	9	10	9
Independent		1
Total	51	46	47	47	10 + 1	9	10	10	29	29

In 2015 there was a by-election in one ward, retained by the Conservatives; the vote shares below include the average votes for each party contesting that ward.
The comparison between 2019 and 2015 is based all 10 wards contested in those two years.  However when 2018 is included, the comparison then becomes only 8 of the wards whilst including 2016 reduces the number to 7 wards.

	2015 share	2019 share	Difference	2015 share	2018 share	2019 share	2015 share	2016 share	2019 share
	10 wards	10 wards		8 wards	8 wards	8 wards	7 wards	7 wards	7 wards
Conservative	40.8%	40.5%	-0.3%	39.6%	47.1%	39.7%	38.3%	29.8%	39.3%
Labour	30.5%	26.7%	-3.8%	31.3%	36.4%	27.0%	31.8%	37.4%	29.1%
Liberal Democrat	3.8%	6.2%	+2.3%	4.1%	3.0%	7.5%	3.8%	4.7%	5.3%
Green	4.6%	10.8%	+6.3%	4.4%	5.2%	10.5%	4.4%	4.0%	9.6%
UKIP	20.3%	15.8%	-4.5%	20.7%	8.3%	15.3%	21.6%	23.8%	16.7%
Independent								0.3%

The Conservative share in 2019 was only marginally lower than in 2015, accompanied by a 2% swing from Labour to Conservative.  Greens saw a significantly higher share increase between 2015 and 2019 than the Liberal Democrats whilst UKIP lost 4.5% share compared to 2015 but still polled over 15%. 
Both the Conservative and Labour shares in 2018 were higher than in 2015 and 2019 but with a 1% swing from Labour to Conservative between 2018 and 2019.  The combined Liberal Democrat / Green / UKIP share in 2018 was around half that in both 2015 and 2019.
However, the Conservatives polled poorly in 2016 with Labour adding some 6% since 2015 with a Conservative to Labour swing of almost 7% since the previous year.  However, the swing from Labour to Conservative between 2016 and 2019 was in excess of 8%.

The Conservatives in 2019 retained all their 8 seats won in 2015 and gained 1 from Labour.  If the Conservative / Labour share in 2020 follows the past two years, a big assumption in the current political climate, they could gain some 4 seats from Labour next year.
 

[middleenglander]

Worcester

Elections since 1973 have returned a Labour council for 17 years, Conservative 10 years and no overall control for 20, although Labour has not had control since new boundaries were introduced in 2004.  Since then, there have been five 3 member wards and ten 2 member wards - a total of 15 wards electing 35 councillors.  Twelve councillors are elected in two years of the electoral cycle with eleven on the third.   None of the contests in at least the recent past have been unopposed with Conservative, Labour and Greens contesting all of the wards in recent years whilst UKIP missed one ward in 2016.

The headline statistics since 2015 can be summarised by:

Party	2015   Candidates	2016   Candidates	2018   Candidates	2019   Candidates	2015   Elected	2016   Elected	2018   Elected	2019   Elected	Councillors    2018	Councillors   2019
Numbers of seats
- annual elections	11	12	12	11
- byelections			1
Conservative	11	12	13	11	8	3	6	7	17 + 1	17
Labour	11	12	13	11	3	7	5 + 1	3	15	15
Liberal Democrat	2	3	8	7
Green	11	12	13	11		2	1	1	4 - 1	3
UKIP	11	11	13	11
Other ^	8	5	4	4
Total	54	55	64	55	11	12	12 + 1	11	35	35

^ 4 BNP, 3 TUSAC and 1 Independent in 2015,
^ 3 British Resistance and 2 TUSAC in 2016,
^ 1 British Resistance, 1 Libertarian, 1 TUSC and 1 Women's Equality in 2018
^ 1 British Resistance, 1 Democrats & Veterans, 1 Socialist Alternative and 1 Women's Equality in 2019

The Councillor elected as Green in 2018 now sits as Conservative.

In 2018 there was a by-election in one ward, retained by Labour; the vote shares below include the average votes for each party contesting that ward.
The comparison between 2019 and 2015 is based all 11 wards contested in those two years.  However when 2018 is included, the comparison then becomes only 8 of the wards whilst including 2016 has the same number of 8 but with some different wards.

	2015 share	2019 share	Difference	2015 share	2018 share	2019 share	2015 share	2016 share	2019 share
	11 wards	11 wards		8 wards	8 wards	8 wards	8 wards	8 wards	8 wards
Conservative	42.6%	36.9%	-5.7%	43.9%	43.6%	38.8%	38.4%	31.8%	34.5%
Labour	29.1%	26.1%	-3.0%	29.5%	34.6%	26.8%	30.7%	37.0%	27.4%
Liberal Democrat	3.3%	9.3%	+6.0%	4.2%	9.9%	11.2%	4.2%	6.3%	10.7%
Green	10.9%	18.8%	+7.9%	7.8%	7.6%	14.0%	12.0%	13.3%	18.3%
UKIP	13.4%	8.1%	-5.3%	13.8%	3.0%	8.4%	13.6%	11.2%	8.0%
Others ^	0.8%	0.8%	+0.0%	0.8%	1.3%	0.8%	1.0%	0.4%	1.0%

The Conservative share in 2019 was approaching 6% lower than in 2015, accompanied by a nearly 1
½% swing from Conservative to Labour.  Greens saw a somewhat higher share increase between 2015 and 2019 than the Liberal Democrats whilst UKIP lost 5.3% compared to 2015, polling around 8%. 
There was a 1½% swing from Labour to Conservative between 2018 and 2019.
However, the Conservatives polled poorly in 2016 with Labour adding some 6% since 2015 with the Conservatives falling by  similar amount, resulting in a Conservative to Labour swing of over 6% between the two years. Nevertheless the swing from Labour to Conservative between 2016 and 2019 nearly offset this.

The Conservatives in 2019 retained 7 of the 8 seats won in 2015 losing 1 to the Greens.   The prospect for 2020 is for limited changes, always depending on the national scene being not dramatically different.
 

[middleenglander]

Wyre Forest

Elections since 1973 have returned a Conservative council for 10 years, Labour 3 years, Health Concern 1 year and no overall control for 33, with Labour last in control during 1998 / 99.  Since new boundaries were introduced in 2015, there have been ten 3 member wards, one 2 member ward and one single member ward - a total of 12 wards electing 33 councillors.  There were all-out elections in 2015 followed by elections for 11 wards, excluding the single member ward, in 2016 and 2018.  It was then decided to move to elections every 4 years with all-out elections for the same wards again this year.  There have been no unopposed elections in recent years.

The headline statistics since 2015 can be summarised by:

Party	2015   Candidates	2016   Candidates	2018   Candidates	2019   Candidates	2015   Elected	2016   Elected	2018   Elected	2019   Elected	Councillors    2018	Councillors   2019
Numbers of seats	33	11	11	33
Conservative	33	11	11	27	23	5	7	14	21	14
Labour	23	11	11	21	3	3	2	2	4	2
Liberal Democrat	5	4	10	14	1	1	1	3	3	3
Green	14	9	8	11				1		1
UKIP	33	11	5	10	1
Health Concern	20	9	9	14	2	1		8	2	8
Independent	3	1	1	5	3	1	1	5	3	5
Other ^	6
Total	137	56	55	102	33	11	11	33	33	33

^ 4 TUSC, 1 Liberal, 1 Patriot Socialist in 2015

There were 3 Liberals standing in one ward in 2015 but previously and subsequently they stood as Liberal Democrats; these have been classed as Liberal Democrats.

The comparison between 2019 and 2015 is based on all 12 wards contested in those two years.  However when 2016 and 2018 are included, the comparison then becomes only 11 of the wards excluding the single member one.

	2015 share	2019 share	Difference	2015 share	2016 share	2018 share	2019 share	2016 share	2019 share
	12 wards	12 wards		11 wards	11 wards	11 wards	11 wards
Conservative	30.7%	22.8%	-7.9%	30.5%	29.0%	41.2%	22.6%
Labour	18.0%	16.5%	-1.5%	18.1%	23.4%	26.5%	16.5%
Liberal Democrat	3.0%	8.8%	+5.8%	3.1%	4.2%	8.6%	8.8%
Green	8.9%	12.4%	+3.5%	9.0%	3.1%	3.1%	12.6%
UKIP	16.5%	11.1%	-5.5%	16.5%	20.2%	2.6%	11.3%
Health Concern	18.7%	18.6%	-0.1%	18.6%	16.1%	12.9%	18.1%
Independent	3.0%	9.8%	+6.9%	3.1%	4.0%	5.1%	10.1%
Others	1.2%		-1.2%	1.2%

In multi-member wards where there is not the full range of candidates for each party, the share calculation using average votes can be significantly distorted.  For both 2015 and 2019 the declaration gave the total number of ballot papers counted which enables a calculation to be made for the larger parties share against this number.  For the Conservatives in 2015 the 12 ward share using the number of ballot papers was 31.9% compared to 30.5% using the average vote method -  a difference of 1.4% and broadly in line with Malvern Hills and Wychavon.  However for 2019 the share using the number of ballot papers calculated at 30.7% is significantly higher than the 22.8% share using the average share method.

It is therefore considered the 22.8% Conservative share in 2019 may be understated and at some 30.7% more in line with the 31.9% in 2015 and 29.0% in 2016.  It would however still be substantially below the 41.2% in 2018.  An assessment of the individual wards supports this as does the Conservatives losing 9 seats compared to 2015 whilst Health Concern winning 8, an increase of 6, even though their number of candidates fell from 20 in 2015 to 14  in 2019