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Post by afleitch on Nov 29, 2023 15:00:15 GMT
This pollster regularly shows them doing 6-10 points better than the rest, for some reason. Anyway, there is a Scottish polls thread you know We're not exactly swamped with polls sadly. IPSOS were one of the better pollsters for both the last Holyrood and GE in Scotland. Their stronger SNP showing has been a post-Sturgeon artifact. Why; that's the question. The actual changes on their last poll is somewhat minimal. Putting my critical hat on; R&W poll monthly. People other than myself have pondered the 'bounciness' of the polling particularly across different legislatures. YouGov poll semi regularly. The Labour +6 poll was a SCOOP poll with different methodology and shouldn't be compared with anything other than SCOOP; indeed the time before in June YouGov had to put out a press release. Their previous poll was during the by-election. How narrow the gap is between Labour and the SNP can be obfuscated by how frequently certain pollsters release findings and how that affects lovely tracking graphs etc. Outside of that there's been a relative degree of stability as is the case in rUK polling. IPSOS is a continuation of that.
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nodealbrexiteer
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non aligned favour no deal brexit!
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 29, 2023 15:02:35 GMT
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 29, 2023 15:48:14 GMT
Independence at 54%
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Post by batman on Nov 29, 2023 16:00:29 GMT
which is out of line with other polls too isn’t it. Random sample variation?
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 29, 2023 16:20:32 GMT
which is out of line with other polls too isn’t it. Random sample variation? Interesting thread which gives one explanation for this. I know this is not a pro-Nat thread, but it explains possible weighting issues for IPSOS:
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Post by afleitch on Nov 29, 2023 16:40:18 GMT
which is out of line with other polls too isn’t it. Random sample variation? Interesting thread which gives one explanation for this. I know this is not a pro-Nat thread, but it explains possible weighting issues for IPSOS: You can use the crosstabs to weigh by 2019 recall; give it a spin and you end up with a similar lead.
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Post by mattbewilson on Nov 29, 2023 17:47:57 GMT
which is out of line with other polls too isn’t it. Random sample variation? I saw on twitter that the last three Scottish polls Inc this one show a labour lead, nats lead and tie so I guess we're in the territory of establishing a pattern
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Post by Clark on Nov 29, 2023 18:33:15 GMT
The Nats might have benefitted from Starmer stance on the ceasefire which is not popular at all in Scotland and why the Labour % has dropped.
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Post by grumpyguy on Nov 29, 2023 18:55:50 GMT
This pollster regularly shows them doing 6-10 points better than the rest, for some reason. Anyway, there is a Scottish polls thread you know "This pollster regularly shows them doing 6-10 points better than the rest, for some reason." IIRC, this poll included 16 & 17 y-os, which will distort Westminster polling figures, boosting SNP I guess. Also it was, as often with IPSOS, a phone poll. In rural Scotland, this might reach people with poor mobile reception, internet access.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 29, 2023 19:59:32 GMT
The Nats might have benefitted from Starmer stance on the ceasefire which is not popular at all in Scotland and why the Labour % has dropped. It was certainly not popular with Scottish Labour, whose MSPs all voted in favour of calls for a ceasefire. That perception of disunity may have had a very marginal impact. I'm less convinced that it was significantly less popular in Scotland than England, or at least not in a way that would have shifted many votes.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 29, 2023 20:00:04 GMT
The Nats might have benefitted from Starmer stance on the ceasefire which is not popular at all in Scotland and why the Labour % has dropped.Intriguing. Any evidence for this being more so than in England, and for the reason?
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Post by Clark on Nov 29, 2023 20:48:35 GMT
No but I follow a lot of Labour MP's on Facebook and there are lots of angry comments from people on the subject.
One example was the new Hamilton & Rutherglen MP Michael Shanks who voted along with Starmer in favour of no ceasefire - he has been criticized by many of his followers (new constituents?) for doing so.
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Post by Clark on Nov 29, 2023 20:54:33 GMT
The Nats might have benefitted from Starmer stance on the ceasefire which is not popular at all in Scotland and why the Labour % has dropped. It was certainly not popular with Scottish Labour, whose MSPs all voted in favour of calls for a ceasefire. That perception of disunity may have had a very marginal impact. I'm less convinced that it was significantly less popular in Scotland than England, or at least not in a way that would have shifted many votes. Yes Scottish Labour adopted a different stance to Starmer.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 29, 2023 20:55:36 GMT
No but I follow a lot of Labour MP's on Facebook and there are lots of angry comments from people on the subject. One example was the new Hamilton & Rutherglen MP Michael Shanks who voted along with Starmer in favour of no ceasefire - he has been criticized by many of his followers (new constituents?) for doing so. OK, fair enough. But I'm dubious of any unevidenced claims that Scotland is more "progressive" than England - British Social Attitudes Survey consistently shows the opposite, but I suspect that Scots like to think otherwise to elevate themselves over the wicked Tory-voting English. I did wonder however if the SNP stance on the issue was having an effect, sort of shifting the Scottish Overton Window on this specific issue to the pro-ceasefire position.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 29, 2023 22:54:11 GMT
No but I follow a lot of Labour MP's on Facebook and there are lots of angry comments from people on the subject. One example was the new Hamilton & Rutherglen MP Michael Shanks who voted along with Starmer in favour of no ceasefire - he has been criticized by many of his followers (new constituents?) for doing so. OK, fair enough. But I'm dubious of any unevidenced claims that Scotland is more "progressive" than England - British Social Attitudes Survey consistently shows the opposite, but I suspect that Scots like to think otherwise to elevate themselves over the wicked Tory-voting English. I did wonder however if the SNP stance on the issue was having an effect, sort of shifting the Scottish Overton Window on this specific issue to the pro-ceasefire position. I think Scotland basically wants to be Norway but with lower beer prices. But Humza Yousef's family connection to Palestine and Gaza may also have distilled the issue on a much more personal and sympathetic basis than the bizarre semantic argument about whether there should be a ceasefire or humanitarian pause (and the supposed tribe it puts you in).
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Nov 30, 2023 7:18:46 GMT
No but I follow a lot of Labour MP's on Facebook and there are lots of angry comments from people on the subject. One example was the new Hamilton & Rutherglen MP Michael Shanks who voted along with Starmer in favour of no ceasefire - he has been criticized by many of his followers (new constituents?) for doing so. But people being vocally critical online on a particular issue are rarely representative of the wider population, and in some cases may not even be in Scotland anyway...
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 30, 2023 8:07:01 GMT
No but I follow a lot of Labour MP's on Facebook and there are lots of angry comments from people on the subject. One example was the new Hamilton & Rutherglen MP Michael Shanks who voted along with Starmer in favour of no ceasefire - he has been criticized by many of his followers (new constituents?) for doing so. If you follow the online posters you would believe the SNP were going to win the Hamilton and Rutherglen byelection. The ultra-Nats are very vocal online and have a poor reputation, also unlikely to be local constituents of those they are attacking. Anyway, Redfield & Wilton also released a poll which shows Labour clearly ahead.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 30, 2023 21:39:52 GMT
No but I follow a lot of Labour MP's on Facebook and there are lots of angry comments from people on the subject. One example was the new Hamilton & Rutherglen MP Michael Shanks who voted along with Starmer in favour of no ceasefire - he has been criticized by many of his followers (new constituents?) for doing so. If you follow the online posters you would believe the SNP were going to win the Hamilton and Rutherglen byelection. The ultra-Nats are very vocal online and have a poor reputation, also unlikely to be local constituents of those they are attacking. Anyway, Redfield & Wilton also released a poll which shows Labour clearly ahead. There are no circumstances in polling where a two point lead shows anyone to be clearly ahead - it's margin of error stuff.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 30, 2023 21:43:10 GMT
If you follow the online posters you would believe the SNP were going to win the Hamilton and Rutherglen byelection. The ultra-Nats are very vocal online and have a poor reputation, also unlikely to be local constituents of those they are attacking. Anyway, Redfield & Wilton also released a poll which shows Labour clearly ahead. There are no circumstances in polling where a two point lead shows anyone to be clearly ahead - it's margin of error stuff. Oh, the joys of the English language, I should have said "which clearly shows Labour ahead", which it does, all MoE issues aside.
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 1, 2023 11:07:44 GMT
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