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Post by marksenior on May 20, 2017 12:22:48 GMT
Ipsos Mori weighted down the Lib Dems from 10.5% to 7% . Some of the regional sub samples are weird . Con at 42% in Scotland , Lib Dems at 2% in London .
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 2, 2017 10:53:10 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Jun 2, 2017 11:09:12 GMT
Difficult to believe the combined Con/Lab share is as high as 85% compared to 69% last time. difficult to believe indeed but sometimes the general public do things contrary to the wisdom of this forum. Not that they have actually done this yet of course....
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jun 2, 2017 11:11:38 GMT
Difficult to believe the combined Con/Lab share is as high as 85% compared to 69% last time. Yes that does seem a little high, although the major reason behind the uplift is the almost total collapse of the UKIP vote.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 2, 2017 11:16:24 GMT
Highest Labour figure in any poll since......?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2017 11:16:24 GMT
Lib Dems are in serious trouble of having less then 8 seats.
From our perspective it could be squeaky bum next Thursday.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Jun 2, 2017 11:20:59 GMT
Lib Dems are in serious trouble of having less then 8 seats. From our perspective it could be squeaky bum next Thursday. Lib Dem gains or losses often bear little relationship to polling. I can recall one election where the Liberal share of the vote plummeted with little or no effect on the number of seats won.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 2, 2017 11:26:40 GMT
The unadjusted figures have a Labour lead ...
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Post by Old Fashioned Leftie on Jun 2, 2017 11:28:20 GMT
Have seen reports of Labour leading by 3% in unweighted figures. If true, a while since this happened.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2017 11:42:16 GMT
Lib Dems are in serious trouble of having less than 8 seats. From our perspective it could be squeaky bum next Thursday. The Lib Dems don't follow the same rules as anybody else, but my judgement is that the odds are now against them making any net gains. On its own, a more dynamic and purposeful Conservative campaign could have seen them driven out of England altogether, but the increasingly powerful two-party squeeze that I predicted months ago is also clearly hurting them.
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Post by carlton43 on Jun 2, 2017 11:45:09 GMT
Difficult to believe the combined Con/Lab share is as high as 85% compared to 69% last time. Yes. Only 15% to cover NI combined vote SNP LD UKIP Green Odds and Sods. Could just be true?
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 2, 2017 11:45:16 GMT
The LD figure with the ICM poll is 7%, which means the UKIP and Green figures must have been very low indeed.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 2, 2017 11:47:06 GMT
The LD figure with the ICM poll is 7%, which means the UKIP and Green figures must have been very low indeed. Ahem Actually, if the next ICM poll *does* put them at 7% then they really have something to worry about
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cogload
Lib Dem
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Post by cogload on Jun 2, 2017 11:49:39 GMT
Have seen reports of Labour leading by 3% in unweighted figures. If true, a while since this happened. 43/40 to Labour. 9 to Lib Dems.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 2, 2017 12:12:22 GMT
Difficult to believe the combined Con/Lab share is as high as 85% compared to 69% last time. Yes. Only 15% to cover NI combined vote SNP LD UKIP Green Odds and Sods. Could just be true? Very low scores become difficult to sample reliably. Most polls don't include Northern Ireland, but even 15% for all "others" in Great Britain would be stretching it. It would suggest a Lib Dem collapse below 6% which is conceivable but unlikely.
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cogload
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Post by cogload on Jun 2, 2017 12:18:26 GMT
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jun 2, 2017 12:36:27 GMT
No MP, of any party, thinks that things are going their way a week out from an election,it is one of the rules of every campaign. I have witnessed candidates in safe seats expressing fury at canvassers due to a perceived interpretation of returns showing a swing to the opposition. One week later: increased majority.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 2, 2017 12:44:55 GMT
Quite. I actually wouldn't expect those (former, hopefully future) MPs to say anything different, whatever they actually believe in private.
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Post by marksenior on Jun 2, 2017 12:48:42 GMT
The LD figure was 9% in all polled Labour 43 Con 40 with only those 10/10 certainty LD 7 Lab 40 Con 45 Relatively bigger than usual changes normally just 1% either way
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 2, 2017 12:51:24 GMT
The LD figure with the ICM poll is 7%, which means the UKIP and Green figures must have been very low indeed. Ahem Actually, if the next ICM poll *does* put them at 7% then they really have something to worry about Sorry, not enough sleep last night.
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