Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,324
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2016 16:46:48 GMT
There was always the risk that CORBYN LABOUR might be a bad thing not so much in the areas the ignorant media like to make HOT TAKES about but elsewhere. And that's what the polling and other evidence is seeming to show...
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,324
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2016 16:48:23 GMT
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,324
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 19, 2016 16:58:27 GMT
And obviously the usual rule about STUNNING FINDINGS applies but the overall pattern is consistently very very grim at the moment. But that's hardly a surprise.
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Post by marksenior on Oct 19, 2016 17:28:17 GMT
Before weighting adjustments and other fiddling with the figures the raw data was
Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2016 17:31:39 GMT
I never said any of that. It was simply a response to the idea that huge numbers of "moderate" Labour supporters have deserted the party since the GE. There is little actual evidence of such a thing, even with these Tory poll leads. I wonder if the number of people who said they were definite to vote has gone up. The historic loss has been Conservative voters to non-voters. Maybe it's people who voted in the referendum, but before that previously voted in 1992. If so, it makes the dictum that the only poll that matters is the general election an especially prudent one. Is this actually true? It is certainly the case that turnout since 1992 has, generally speaking, fallen by more in Labour *areas* than Tory ones.
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Post by justin124 on Oct 19, 2016 17:42:15 GMT
The only bright spot in this dismal poll for Labour appears in the Scotland figures - Lab 24% Con 22%.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 19, 2016 18:14:54 GMT
Before weighting adjustments and other fiddling with the figures the raw data was Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5 I wonder if "past voting adjustments" - based on GE 2015 - are lowering LD support unduly?
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2016 18:17:41 GMT
As in "this poll is......"? An outlier, but for us to get 47 6 years into government, even as an outlier you must be doing something seriously wrong.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 19, 2016 18:46:33 GMT
What do STUNNING FINDINGS and HOT TAKE mean? Are they replacing other words?
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Post by casualobserver on Oct 19, 2016 18:52:25 GMT
The only bright spot in this dismal poll for Labour appears in the Scotland figures - Lab 24% Con 22%. Ten years ago, who could have imagined anyone making a comment like that!
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Post by casualobserver on Oct 19, 2016 19:00:34 GMT
As in "this poll is......"? An outlier, but for us to get 47 6 years into government, even as an outlier you must be doing something seriously wrong. With a good chunk of luck, it may only be an outlier until the next poll comes along
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2016 19:18:26 GMT
Before weighting adjustments and other fiddling with the figures the raw data was Con 43 Lab 32 LD 10 UKIP 5 I wonder if the raw data is the accurate data here.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,397
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Post by mboy on Oct 19, 2016 20:49:34 GMT
As in "this poll is......"? I believe the poll. May is more in tune with the nation, because everyone else has vacated the field.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2016 22:31:51 GMT
Labour support is still roughly where it was at the GE (especially when you take out Scotland, where our decline has continued) Anyway, how's that "UKIP about to blitz Labour in its northern heartlands" HOT TAKE doing right now? UKIP missed an open goal.
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Post by marksenior on Nov 16, 2016 15:21:51 GMT
Today's Ipsos Mori
Con 42 Lab 33 LD 10 UKIP 7
Raw figures
Con 42 Lab 33 LD 11.5 UKIP 5.5
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 16, 2016 20:06:42 GMT
Today's Ipsos Mori Con 42 Lab 33 LD 10 UKIP 7 The first post on this thread - from 12th Dec 2012 - was 44 - 35 - 9 - 7 ! But the order was Lab - Con - LD - UKIP. slack water
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Post by manchesterman on Nov 16, 2016 21:28:09 GMT
..is that like Whitewater?
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 15,324
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Post by Sibboleth on Nov 17, 2016 14:59:21 GMT
BENGHAZI
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2016 15:19:09 GMT
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Post by marksenior on Dec 15, 2016 11:00:03 GMT
Latest Ipsos Mori poll
Con 40 minus 2 Lab 29 minus 4 LDem 14 plus 4 UKIP 9 plus 2 Green 3 N/C
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