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Post by marksenior on Aug 17, 2016 14:04:26 GMT
It is all in the weighting and likelihood to vote 83 Lib Dems ( 9% ) weighted down to 59 ( 7% ) 47 UKIP voters in sample weighted up to 57 41% Conservatives in sample becomes 45% after likelihood to vote
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 17, 2016 15:54:21 GMT
Genuine LOL at both the Tory and UKIP scores And the Labour score for that matter 34% is ok, and Labour has won majorities on less than that in the past, but in the context of the Tories' score, I'll agree that it's pretty bad.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 17, 2016 15:59:29 GMT
And the Labour score for that matter 34% is ok, and Labour has won majorities on less than that in the past, but in the context of the Tories' score, I'll agree that it's pretty bad. Well no they haven't, but that's besides the point. I took it that the Bishop was laughing at the implausibilty of those scores rather than how low they were (otherwise I don't think he'd be laughing at the Tory score) so I was likewise suggesting it is implausible that Labour enjoy a level of support anywhere near as high as 34%
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Post by curiousliberal on Aug 17, 2016 16:11:27 GMT
34% is ok, and Labour has won majorities on less than that in the past, but in the context of the Tories' score, I'll agree that it's pretty bad. Well no they haven't, but that's besides the point. I took it that the Bishop was laughing at the implausibilty of those scores rather than how low they were (otherwise I don't think he'd be laughing at the Tory score) so I was likewise suggesting it is implausible that Labour enjoy a level of support anywhere near as high as 34% I've just checked the election I thought I was referencing - 2005. I recalled (incorrectly) that they'd scored 32%, not 35.2%, and had mainly won due to favourable boundaries and a relatively low Conservative vote. Thanks for the correction here. As for the LOL, it might be black humour on The Bishop 's part (correct me if I'm wrong). I don't think the Tories are at 45%, but they do seem to be hovering around 40% at the moment, so it's not implausible (although very unlikely) that they could be at 45% in the near future.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Aug 17, 2016 19:23:00 GMT
They're called Momentum members, I understand. Well some are yes, but it might surprise many forum members that JC's appeal goes wider than just Momentum. Yes, some of them are Sinn Fein.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 17, 2016 19:28:09 GMT
To be fair, Corbyn's fanbase does seem to be a bit broader than just the usual suspects.
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Aug 19, 2016 7:18:31 GMT
To be fair, Corbyn's fanbase does seem to be a bit broader than just the usual suspects. Indeed, but his cheerleaders aren't.
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Post by BossMan on Aug 21, 2016 19:11:24 GMT
Putting aside any guffawing or otherwise it might provoke, I believe that 45% Conservative rating was the highest the party has achieved whilst in government since June 1992. Just thought it ought to be mentioned.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Oct 19, 2016 14:07:09 GMT
Putting aside any guffawing or otherwise it might provoke, I believe that 45% Conservative rating was the highest the party has achieved whilst in government since June 1992. Just thought it ought to be mentioned. Not anymore:
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 19, 2016 15:10:41 GMT
Wank.
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Oct 19, 2016 15:50:26 GMT
Still don't understand how both Labour and UKIP are sliding in the polls, yet the Lib Dems remain static.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 19, 2016 16:00:17 GMT
Because we're already at rock-bottom and cannot go any lower?
I think we just have hard-core Remainers backing us now, and they have nowhere else to go. Good to be back in 3rd though. Chin up!
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Post by BossMan on Oct 19, 2016 16:03:30 GMT
Putting aside any guffawing or otherwise it might provoke, I believe that 45% Conservative rating was the highest the party has achieved whilst in government since June 1992. Just thought it ought to be mentioned. Not anymore: EDIT: Biggest Conservative rating whilst in government since April 1991. And the biggest Conservative lead whilst in government since October 1987.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 19, 2016 16:08:27 GMT
Interestingl on UNS, the most marginal Labour seat to be held on the basis of that poll would be Batley & Spen..
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2016 16:09:16 GMT
As in "this poll is......"?
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Jack
Reform Party
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Post by Jack on Oct 19, 2016 16:14:36 GMT
Because we're already at rock-bottom and cannot go any lower? I worded that wrong. What I meant was, why are the Lib Dems not gaining whilst other parties are losing? Mainly the more moderate Labour voters.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2016 16:17:53 GMT
Labour support is still roughly where it was at the GE (especially when you take out Scotland, where our decline has continued)
Anyway, how's that "UKIP about to blitz Labour in its northern heartlands" HOT TAKE doing right now?
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 19, 2016 16:22:58 GMT
Labour support is still roughly where it was at the GE (especially when you take out Scotland, where our decline has continued) Anyway, how's that "UKIP about to blitz Labour in its northern heartlands" HOT TAKE doing right now? Yeah, that's right, nothing to worry about being 18 points behind the government despite them being a bunch of feuding incompetents who have just brought their entire economic policy crashing down around them.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 19, 2016 16:24:23 GMT
I never said any of that.
It was simply a response to the idea that huge numbers of "moderate" Labour supporters have deserted the party since the GE.
There is little actual evidence of such a thing, even with these Tory poll leads.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 19, 2016 16:25:47 GMT
Because we're already at rock-bottom and cannot go any lower? I worded that wrong. What I meant was, why are the Lib Dems not gaining whilst other parties are losing? Mainly the more moderate Labour voters. The Labour vote is not falling catastrophically, but I think we have to assume that some Labour-inclined swing voters are going straight over to the Conservatives, along with larger numbers of erstwhile Kippers. Voters with a self-perception of themselves as moderate are not freaked out by Theresa May personally, while UKIP is imploding* and the Conservatives are at least making a show of trying on some of UKIP's clothes. I suspect that the Lib Dems' problem is that they have yet to persuade people that they are really relevant to the national political battle which is currently taking shape. They are getting some good results at local level, but local politics is a very different kettle of fish. EDIT: *UKIP as a party is imploding, though the UKIP vote has so far shown only a moderate decline in the polls. Such voters as it has lost have probably headed to the Conservatives for the most part.
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