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Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2019 12:46:15 GMT
Gordon Brown preferred to locals Sorry, this is a bit too cryptic for me. Brown has been speaking in Peterborough, robertl is suggesting, in place of the candidate and other potential 'local' Labour speakers. That's my interpretation anyway.
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Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2019 12:47:19 GMT
Actually one of the interesting things was the SDP was in the forefront of these things for the time. I believe you could join by credit card which was considered innovative. And the SDP had a national membership database - whereas I believe you could only join the Liberals locally. My guess is (for the time) the SDP did replicate some of the success of the BXP in individual donations and membership - although I can't see immediately see any stats online. Of course the internet makes this vastly easier and cheaper. And to their credit, the BXP have very successfully melded the online and offline and UKIP has given them a party and activist base which I guess they have effectively done a "reverse takeover" of and will give them a local base and organisation - rather like the Liberals did for the Alliance. Of course CHUK didn't manage what Farage did (I believe 15k supporters to Farage's 100k) and don't have a local base.
Widely ridiculed at the time as I recall. In the job I had twenty five years ago, the office manager refused to take credit card payments for certain items. I never did find out why.
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Post by michael2019 on May 31, 2019 12:47:33 GMT
Not a particularly geographical one or even a demographical one. Although they came from parliament whereas the BXP have no MPs, the parallels are closer than they might first appear. imho.
The interwangle has allowed BXP to attract donations and "expressions of interest" much faster than anyone could have done in 1981.
Actually one of the interesting things was the SDP was in the forefront of these things for the time. I believe you could join by credit card which was considered innovative. And the SDP had a national membership database - whereas I believe you could only join the Liberals locally. My guess is (for the time) the SDP did replicate some of the success of the BXP in individual donations and membership - although I can't see immediately see any stats online. Of course the internet makes this vastly easier and cheaper. And to their credit, the BXP have very successfully melded the online and offline and UKIP has given them a party and activist base which I guess they have effectively done a "reverse takeover" of and will give them a local base and organisation - rather like the Liberals did for the Alliance. Of course CHUK didn't manage what Farage did (I believe 15k supporters to Farage's 100k) and don't have a local base.
Further to this the SDP had a membership of about 63,000 at the time of their first leadership election - about a year after their formation (and I guess quite a lot would have joined fairly early on). For comparison about 20,000 voted in the 1976 Liberal leadership contest - no turnout is given or I guess known but if it was 75%, (which was what the SDP's was) it would indicate a membership of about 26,000.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1982_Social_Democratic_Party_(UK)_leadership_election
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_Liberal_Party_(UK)_leadership_election
So you can see - albeit in a different way - the coming together of the Brexit Party's more modern "membership" structure (ok paying supporters) with a more ramshackle and "less professional" UKIP activist local base has some similarities with the coming together of the SDP with the Liberals.
EDIT: Actually I didn't read the Wikipedia page on the 1976 leadership election carefully enough. It states the leader was "elected by a ballot of an electoral college made up of representatives of the various constituency associations, with their vote "weighted" by the strength of the Liberal vote at the previous general election" and prior to that it was by MPs so I guess we will be in the dark on the Liberals' membership numbers.
FURTHER EDIT!: But the combined membership of the merged party for the Liberal Democrats at the time of the first leadership was 80k (but a lot of churn, new members etc. and the only ones that could be "transferred over" were SDP ones) - but indicates 63k was a pretty good haul for the SDP by 1982!
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,204
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Post by Chris from Brum on May 31, 2019 13:02:11 GMT
And the SDP had a national membership database - whereas I believe you could only join the Liberals locally.
This apparently caused some fun and games when the parties merged. The SDP were pretty sure of who their members were. The Liberals didn't have a scooby doo, and there were wide variations in how up-to-date different Liberal Association records were. Also some Liberal membership secretaries were somewhat, er, protective of their data, especially if they weren't that keen on the merger in the first place. How it all got sorted out I'll never know. I think the Liberals claimed somewhere north of 100,000 members, but quite a few of those turned out to be phantom entries.
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2019 13:07:55 GMT
I remember when Labour had the two tier system and you could either join locally or nationally. It was chaos. No-one locally knew who had paid nationally, so if you visited party members locally, they were not surprisingly a bit pissed off to be asked for subs if they had already paid nationally. As a result no-one bothered, so you were never sure who was actually fully paid up or not, and the easiest thing to do was not to ask but just demand a party card when needed. They used to be dated, but they aren;t now, presumably because party officers have access to up to date membership lists so the level of proof is no longer required? At the last nomination meeting for MP, when we got large numbers of people who never attended otherwise, I asked for cards, but hadn't any way of knowing whether half of them were the people they said they were. There is an easy answer to this, but it upsets the libertarians....
In terms of Gordon Brown - its usual to wheel out grandees at by elections. Gordon has a certain sentimental appeal, and its easy to remember that he really wasn't all that good at being PM
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,657
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Post by The Bishop on May 31, 2019 13:10:09 GMT
its easy to remember that he really wasn't all that good at being PM Except when he really needed to be, but that is another story!
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Post by carlton43 on May 31, 2019 13:32:47 GMT
Widely ridiculed at the time as I recall. In the job I had twenty five years ago, the office manager refused to take credit card payments for certain items. I never did find out why. Ah! That would be the transactions where.... he top-sliced a cut they were institutionally off-book they where off VAT and Tax etc. Many is the time I have had to say to customers "Wrong set of books. I am not Tax and VAT." Some kept as many as four sets to satisfy various 'interests'.
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Post by samdwebber on May 31, 2019 14:11:29 GMT
Mugs game perhaps matureleft but often money to be made by folks on here who are closer to the action and canvass returns than the bookies who just follow the money. Leave was 5/2 in the final few days which seemed crazy when it was clearly very tight. As a staunch remainer my £20 bet on leave paid for the orders of service to be printed for my wedding in July 2016! Edinburgh Western as a Lib Dem gain in 2016 was as big as 4/1 a few weeks out when most activists knew the party was piling in and turning it into a by-election type effort in 2016. Money for old rope. Sadly I didn't invest early enough at 16/1 or bigger! Lib Dems to gain Richmond Park in the by-election was also 5/2 in the final few days when the party was briefing the press we were ahead.....and we were!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2019 15:02:43 GMT
Tories defeating Salmond was 10/1 the day after they topped the poll in his seat in the locals. I put £50 on it.
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 31, 2019 17:32:05 GMT
And the SDP had a national membership database - whereas I believe you could only join the Liberals locally.
This apparently caused some fun and games when the parties merged. The SDP were pretty sure of who their members were. The Liberals didn't have a scooby doo, and there were wide variations in how up-to-date different Liberal Association records were. Also some Liberal membership secretaries were somewhat, er, protective of their data, especially if they weren't that keen on the merger in the first place. How it all got sorted out I'll never know. I think the Liberals claimed somewhere north of 100,000 members, but quite a few of those turned out to be phantom entries. I do recall a meeting in the days of the old Crewe Constituency (which included Alsager and Sandbach) where it was revealed - eventually - that Sandbach had more Liberal councillors than Liberal members ...
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Post by gwynthegriff on May 31, 2019 17:35:48 GMT
I remember when Labour had the two tier system and you could either join locally or nationally. It was chaos. No-one locally knew who had paid nationally, so if you visited party members locally, they were not surprisingly a bit pissed off to be asked for subs if they had already paid nationally. As a result no-one bothered, so you were never sure who was actually fully paid up or not, and the easiest thing to do was not to ask but just demand a party card when needed. They used to be dated, but they aren;t now, presumably because party officers have access to up to date membership lists so the level of proof is no longer required? At the last nomination meeting for MP, when we got large numbers of people who never attended otherwise, I asked for cards, but hadn't any way of knowing whether half of them were the people they said they were. There is an easy answer to this, but it upsets the libertarians.... In terms of Gordon Brown - its usual to wheel out grandees at by elections. Gordon has a certain sentimental appeal, and its easy to remember that he really wasn't all that good at being PM Except that in the Blair years they used to be rather liberal with the supply of said membership cards. I was sent a membership card on two occasions, despite being a Lib Dem councillor at the time. Used to enjoy producing them at council meetings when Labour councillors boasted about the party's membership figures.
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Post by johnloony on May 31, 2019 17:37:09 GMT
I expect something like
Lab 40% Con 25% Brx 20%
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Post by johnhemming on May 31, 2019 17:51:53 GMT
I was sent a membership card on two occasions, despite being a Lib Dem councillor at the time. I used to wave the Labour leadership ballot paper I was sent around the House of Commons. As a member of a Labour affiliated Trade Union I was sent a ballot paper. I didn't tick the box saying I supported Labour and hence there was no merit in casting it. I still have one or more somewhere.
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2019 19:50:29 GMT
I was sent a membership card on two occasions, despite being a Lib Dem councillor at the time. I used to wave the Labour leadership ballot paper I was sent around the House of Commons. As a member of a Labour affiliated Trade Union I was sent a ballot paper. I didn't tick the box saying I supported Labour and hence there was no merit in casting it. I still have one or more somewhere. You paid the political levy? Why?
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Post by Merseymike on May 31, 2019 19:51:48 GMT
I remember when Labour had the two tier system and you could either join locally or nationally. It was chaos. No-one locally knew who had paid nationally, so if you visited party members locally, they were not surprisingly a bit pissed off to be asked for subs if they had already paid nationally. As a result no-one bothered, so you were never sure who was actually fully paid up or not, and the easiest thing to do was not to ask but just demand a party card when needed. They used to be dated, but they aren;t now, presumably because party officers have access to up to date membership lists so the level of proof is no longer required? At the last nomination meeting for MP, when we got large numbers of people who never attended otherwise, I asked for cards, but hadn't any way of knowing whether half of them were the people they said they were. There is an easy answer to this, but it upsets the libertarians.... In terms of Gordon Brown - its usual to wheel out grandees at by elections. Gordon has a certain sentimental appeal, and its easy to remember that he really wasn't all that good at being PM Except that in the Blair years they used to be rather liberal with the supply of said membership cards. I was sent a membership card on two occasions, despite being a Lib Dem councillor at the time. Used to enjoy producing them at council meetings when Labour councillors boasted about the party's membership figures. In the Blair years, membership was entirely national. So, someone signed you up and paid the subs to the national party! Do you have any enemies?
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Post by finsobruce on May 31, 2019 21:24:21 GMT
In the job I had twenty five years ago, the office manager refused to take credit card payments for certain items. I never did find out why. Ah! That would be the transactions where.... he top-sliced a cut they were institutionally off-book they where off VAT and Tax etc. Many is the time I have had to say to customers "Wrong set of books. I am not Tax and VAT." Some kept as many as four sets to satisfy various 'interests'. Nothing so exciting I'm afraid. Just being odd. And it was a she.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Jun 1, 2019 6:51:29 GMT
I expect something like Lab 40% Con 25% Brx 20% Labour too high, Brexit Party too low. This will be won on <35%.
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mboy
Liberal
Listen. Think. Speak.
Posts: 22,397
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Post by mboy on Jun 1, 2019 9:40:08 GMT
Ruh-roh!
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Post by Ron Swanson on Jun 1, 2019 9:53:29 GMT
I wonder what dates the postal votes went out...
If they went out close to the 23rd May, with voters minds on the Euro elections, even if they’d already sent their EU ones back, lots of folk might have voted Brexit Party.
Lib Dems could take a few off Labour and grab 3rd from the Tories.
Can’t look past a Brexit gain here.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jun 1, 2019 10:51:48 GMT
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