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Post by finsobruce on May 30, 2019 9:53:49 GMT
I’m sure they couldn’t have inherited the UKIP data after all that would be illegal But very easy to do. Not that easy - and any extensive use of it would have almost certainly become pretty obvious pretty quickly, even though the putative recipients would be generally sympathetic to the message.
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Post by carlton43 on May 30, 2019 9:58:42 GMT
Carlton does not always hold much value to the rules and regulations underpinning electoral law, to be honest In theory possibly, in practise I suspect those on the ground are being more circumspect these days. We live in the Snoflake Age!
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Post by finsobruce on May 30, 2019 10:01:21 GMT
In theory possibly, in practise I suspect those on the ground are being more circumspect these days. We live in the Snoflake Age! And they are dancing...
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2019 11:28:33 GMT
well the BxP vote seems quite soft. Half of BxP supporters have reported they'll stick with the party after the Euros. However, clearly there were leavers that did stay at home would they come out for the by election But not in the usual sense. The strength of the party vote is inextricably linked to the progress or otherwise of the issue that caused its formation. That isn't even close to being resolved at the moment and it'll be sometime before it is. There were lots of voters from all positions who stayed at home, not just them.
When it is (if that ever happens) the next question is what Farage does with the vehicle? Park it or drive on with becoming a 'permanent' national party in opposition to the Tories (at least some of the time). And so on...
In the meantime it is still basking in the sun.
Turnout was lower in areas that voted to leave but yes doesn't necessarily mean it was just the leave voters there that stayed at home
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2019 11:33:51 GMT
We are out of comfort zone and in pure guess territory here. Wise observations Peter but this time around we are in new conditions with the very tectonic plates shifting under our feet as we make those guesses. My first punt The BP 35 Lab 30 Con 20 Others 15 This will be a a squeeze on everyone by everyone and seen to be a 3-horse race, so the left and Remain will gravitate to Labour (unless Labour insist on 'being very clear' in their total ambiguity) and the right and Leave will gravitate to the BP. Conservatives and LDs will fight for their lives and fail but could between them determine the result. A Conservative weakness or failure ensures it for the BP. A very strong showing by the LDs would dish Labour. A strong showing by both will make it very close. I think this is too close to the Euros for the 'BP Effect' to have worn off and to early for the majors to have recovered. If it was two months later and there was a new Hard Brexit Conservative Leader in place, then I think the dynamic would change and the Conservatives would gain it. But they wont next month.
It's very, very difficult in my view to see the right baseline as anything other the euro election result. Indeed this will be the Euro election with knobs on as it is precisely what the good people of Peterborough are doing - sending someone to Peterborough to vote on Brexit. I am not local but I don't think that Peterborough constituency differs vastly from the wider Peterborough council area - but if it does then let's know.
So the right baseline is BXP 38%, Lab 17%, LD 15%, Con 11%, Green 11%, LD 15%, UKIP 4%, Change 3%.
BXP don't need any ground game at all as the Euros show given that Conservative members let alone voters are voting for them! Indeed the best thing for the Conservative would be to no GOTV at all - given they will only be dragging "Conservatives" out to vote who will actually vote BXP.
The challenge is who will be the Remain standard bearer. I guess for their bar charts it would have helped the LDs if they had come second in the Euros across Peterborough! And if there is a constituency opinion poll before next Thursday that could change thing. LDs can say as well to Remainers send a message to Labour to change their policy to a referendum. But there is potentially a whopping Remain vote to be picked up (Green - can't win here (whereas they could a bit in the Euros last week), Change (definitely can't win here! and Labour remainers).
You can easily see BXP getting above 40% and whoever leads the Remain charge (and Labour have some difficulty claiming that with their policy) getting a bandwagon behind them. But it is very unclear at the moment whether a bandwagon is and will role on the Remain side either for the LDs or Labour.
the guardian article also quoted a conservative who said they know where their core vote is but they aren't quite sure how soft it is
I could be wrong but Peterborough doesn't seem a very Lib Dem friendly place and maybe I'm reading the 'baseline' wrong but I would have thought this points to how high Brexit and Lib Dems can get rather than this is what we at least expect from them
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Post by carlton43 on May 30, 2019 13:14:17 GMT
It is well observed that the ground force is good for both the majors and likely to be weak for the BP. Will that matter if this proves to be another referendum on Brexit? Will the media and generality of the campaign do the work for the BP as it did at the Euros? If so will a very strong effort of GTVO by the majors actually help to maximise the BP TO as well? I think it will up to a point. But to fully maximise their TO the BP needs to tap the underclass 'don't often vote' and entice it to a protest vote for them as UKIP did in the Referendum. Perhaps they can rely upon the media to accomplish that for them?
So what is the best tactic for the majors? We know the best tactic for the BP in street visits, cavalcades and mass rally events. But what of the majors? Careful individual targeting of loyalists and members or a mass canvass and full knocking up for a mass TO? Would the latter perhaps help the BP nearly as much?
Will the Conservative recovery have made an effect by polling day? If it looks as if it will be a Johnson v. Hunt run off, will that be enough? Should each party target carefully and go low key or go all out and hope that the increased TO engendered will always split a shade in their favour and thus increase their chances?
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maxque
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Post by maxque on May 30, 2019 13:54:20 GMT
It is well observed that the ground force is good for both the majors and likely to be weak for the BP. Will that matter if this proves to be another referendum on Brexit? Will the media and generality of the campaign do the work for the BP as it did at the Euros? If so will a very strong effort of GTVO by the majors actually help to maximise the BP TO as well? I think it will up to a point. But to fully maximise their TO the BP needs to tap the underclass 'don't often vote' and entice it to a protest vote for them as UKIP did in the Referendum. Perhaps they can rely upon the media to accomplish that for them? So what is the best tactic for the majors? We know the best tactic for the BP in street visits, cavalcades and mass rally events. But what of the majors? Careful individual targeting of loyalists and members or a mass canvass and full knocking up for a mass TO? Would the latter perhaps help the BP nearly as much? Will the Conservative recovery have made an effect by polling day? If it looks as if it will be a Johnson v. Hunt run off, will that be enough? Should each party target carefully and go low key or go all out and hope that the increased TO engendered will always split a shade in their favour and thus increase their chances? No, as by-elections coverage by media is usually next to non-existant.
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Post by carlton43 on May 30, 2019 14:17:34 GMT
It is well observed that the ground force is good for both the majors and likely to be weak for the BP. Will that matter if this proves to be another referendum on Brexit? Will the media and generality of the campaign do the work for the BP as it did at the Euros? If so will a very strong effort of GTVO by the majors actually help to maximise the BP TO as well? I think it will up to a point. But to fully maximise their TO the BP needs to tap the underclass 'don't often vote' and entice it to a protest vote for them as UKIP did in the Referendum. Perhaps they can rely upon the media to accomplish that for them? So what is the best tactic for the majors? We know the best tactic for the BP in street visits, cavalcades and mass rally events. But what of the majors? Careful individual targeting of loyalists and members or a mass canvass and full knocking up for a mass TO? Would the latter perhaps help the BP nearly as much? Will the Conservative recovery have made an effect by polling day? If it looks as if it will be a Johnson v. Hunt run off, will that be enough? Should each party target carefully and go low key or go all out and hope that the increased TO engendered will always split a shade in their favour and thus increase their chances? No, as by-elections coverage by media is usually next to non-existant. Surely you see the strong chance of some here? I certainly do.
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Post by finsobruce on May 30, 2019 14:19:52 GMT
No, as by-elections coverage by media is usually next to non-existant. Surely you see the strong chance of some here? I certainly do. It's going to be a soap opera with coverage to match.
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Post by Strontium Dog on May 30, 2019 14:29:32 GMT
I expect a Brexit party to beat The Brexit Party here. Labour hold.
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Post by michael2019 on May 30, 2019 15:51:59 GMT
It's very, very difficult in my view to see the right baseline as anything other the euro election result. Indeed this will be the Euro election with knobs on as it is precisely what the good people of Peterborough are doing - sending someone to Peterborough to vote on Brexit. I am not local but I don't think that Peterborough constituency differs vastly from the wider Peterborough council area - but if it does then let's know.
So the right baseline is BXP 38%, Lab 17%, LD 15%, Con 11%, Green 11%, LD 15%, UKIP 4%, Change 3%.
BXP don't need any ground game at all as the Euros show given that Conservative members let alone voters are voting for them! Indeed the best thing for the Conservative would be to no GOTV at all - given they will only be dragging "Conservatives" out to vote who will actually vote BXP.
The challenge is who will be the Remain standard bearer. I guess for their bar charts it would have helped the LDs if they had come second in the Euros across Peterborough! And if there is a constituency opinion poll before next Thursday that could change thing. LDs can say as well to Remainers send a message to Labour to change their policy to a referendum. But there is potentially a whopping Remain vote to be picked up (Green - can't win here (whereas they could a bit in the Euros last week), Change (definitely can't win here! and Labour remainers).
You can easily see BXP getting above 40% and whoever leads the Remain charge (and Labour have some difficulty claiming that with their policy) getting a bandwagon behind them. But it is very unclear at the moment whether a bandwagon is and will role on the Remain side either for the LDs or Labour.
the guardian article also quoted a conservative who said they know where their core vote is but they aren't quite sure how soft it is
I could be wrong but Peterborough doesn't seem a very Lib Dem friendly place and maybe I'm reading the 'baseline' wrong but I would have thought this points to how high Brexit and Lib Dems can get rather than this is what we at least expect from them
"I could be wrong but Peterborough doesn't seem a very Lib Dem friendly place"
May be not but (when they were winning by-elections) they won by-elections in not "very Lib Dem friendly places". I think Christchurch was in the top 10 most Conservative seats at the time. The question for the Lib Dems is whether they can get Remainers behind them. Certainly if I was a Green Euro Election voter in Peterborough that wanted to stop BXP, send a message (to Labour) and send a "stop Brexit" and People's Vote voting MP to Parliament then surely I would be weighing where my vote was most effective under FPTP. Now it may be that Labour can attract such Green voters or may be not - they haven't proved great at it so far.
By "baseline" I meant the most meaningful comparison to start working from - normally it'd be the last general election or may be the local elections in the area and you wouldn't normally pick the last Euro election result. But it is difficult not to see that as the best starting point - whether or not the parties improve on their showing from then. But I do think voters on the Leave side will absolutely flock to the BXP - probably in greater numbers than the Euros - although that's quite a high number - (and from outside - although I haven't read much about the candidates) they have picked a reasonable candidate. There's virtually nothing to stop leavers flocking to the BXP. On the remain side, it is an open question as I have outlined. There is an opportunity there for Labour, there is an opportunity there for the Lib Dems.
(As an aside I glad that the Tories know where their "core" vote is - (they wouldn't tell the press anything else) - as it doesn't seem to include Tory members or members of parliament (normally the most "core" of a core vote) I don't think they do!)
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Post by yellowperil on May 30, 2019 16:12:21 GMT
We are out of comfort zone and in pure guess territory here. Wise observations Peter but this time around we are in new conditions with the very tectonic plates shifting under our feet as we make those guesses. My first punt The BP 35 Lab 30 Con 20 Others 15 This will be a a squeeze on everyone by everyone and seen to be a 3-horse race, so the left and Remain will gravitate to Labour (unless Labour insist on 'being very clear' in their total ambiguity) and the right and Leave will gravitate to the BP. Conservatives and LDs will fight for their lives and fail but could between them determine the result. A Conservative weakness or failure ensures it for the BP. A very strong showing by the LDs would dish Labour. A strong showing by both will make it very close. I think this is too close to the Euros for the 'BP Effect' to have worn off and to early for the majors to have recovered. If it was two months later and there was a new Hard Brexit Conservative Leader in place, then I think the dynamic would change and the Conservatives would gain it. But they wont next month.
It's very, very difficult in my view to see the right baseline as anything other the euro election result. Indeed this will be the Euro election with knobs on as it is precisely what the good people of Peterborough are doing - sending someone to Peterborough to vote on Brexit. I am not local but I don't think that Peterborough constituency differs vastly from the wider Peterborough council area - but if it does then let's know.
So the right baseline is BXP 38%, Lab 17%, LD 15%, Con 11%, Green 11%, LD 15%, UKIP 4%, Change 3%.
BXP don't need any ground game at all as the Euros show given that Conservative members let alone voters are voting for them! Indeed the best thing for the Conservative would be to no GOTV at all - given they will only be dragging "Conservatives" out to vote who will actually vote BXP.
The challenge is who will be the Remain standard bearer. I guess for their bar charts it would have helped the LDs if they had come second in the Euros across Peterborough! And if there is a constituency opinion poll before next Thursday that could change thing. LDs can say as well to Remainers send a message to Labour to change their policy to a referendum. But there is potentially a whopping Remain vote to be picked up (Green - can't win here (whereas they could a bit in the Euros last week), Change (definitely can't win here! and Labour remainers).
You can easily see BXP getting above 40% and whoever leads the Remain charge (and Labour have some difficulty claiming that with their policy) getting a bandwagon behind them. But it is very unclear at the moment whether a bandwagon is and will role on the Remain side either for the LDs or Labour.
So that's Lib Dems on 30% already and no doubt rising! I would point out an important difference between the Euros and a parliamentary election. Most of those Tory voters who switched to the BxP for were of the opinion that the vote was meaningless, not least because they believed the members would sit for a few weeks at most, so they could vote BxP and make a gesture. ( I think they may well be wrong in that belief, but that's another question). Voting for a member of parliament is a bit different and while some will still see a parliamentary by-election as vehicle for a protest vote. it will not be quite to the same degree.
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Post by michael2019 on May 30, 2019 16:51:17 GMT
It's very, very difficult in my view to see the right baseline as anything other the euro election result. Indeed this will be the Euro election with knobs on as it is precisely what the good people of Peterborough are doing - sending someone to Peterborough to vote on Brexit. I am not local but I don't think that Peterborough constituency differs vastly from the wider Peterborough council area - but if it does then let's know.
So the right baseline is BXP 38%, Lab 17%, LD 15%, Con 11%, Green 11%, LD 15%, UKIP 4%, Change 3%.
BXP don't need any ground game at all as the Euros show given that Conservative members let alone voters are voting for them! Indeed the best thing for the Conservative would be to no GOTV at all - given they will only be dragging "Conservatives" out to vote who will actually vote BXP.
The challenge is who will be the Remain standard bearer. I guess for their bar charts it would have helped the LDs if they had come second in the Euros across Peterborough! And if there is a constituency opinion poll before next Thursday that could change thing. LDs can say as well to Remainers send a message to Labour to change their policy to a referendum. But there is potentially a whopping Remain vote to be picked up (Green - can't win here (whereas they could a bit in the Euros last week), Change (definitely can't win here! and Labour remainers).
You can easily see BXP getting above 40% and whoever leads the Remain charge (and Labour have some difficulty claiming that with their policy) getting a bandwagon behind them. But it is very unclear at the moment whether a bandwagon is and will role on the Remain side either for the LDs or Labour.
So that's Lib Dems on 30% already and no doubt rising! I would point out an important difference between the Euros and a parliamentary election. Most of those Tory voters who switched to the BxP for were of the opinion that the vote was meaningless, not least because they believed the members would sit for a few weeks at most, so they could vote BxP and make a gesture. ( I think they may well be wrong in that belief, but that's another question). Voting for a member of parliament is a bit different and while some will still see a parliamentary by-election as vehicle for a protest vote. it will not be quite to the same degree. "So that's Lib Dems on 30% already and no doubt rising!"
LOL !
I cut and pasted the result in alphabetical order and then re-ordered it in size of vote order.
But actually it is! If they can get their ducks in a row! And I am not saying that they will. But I do seem to remember talk of a joint Lib Dem/Green/Change independent Remain candidate. Obv. Change are not standing and post the Euros and their bandwagon the Lib Dem could well adopt the mantle of that candidate. My analysis earlier in this thread - making some reasonable assumptions on how Remainers could peal off from the Greens, Change and Labour put the Lib Dems on 27%.
"Voting for a member of parliament is a bit different and while some will still see a parliamentary by-election as vehicle for a protest vote. it will not be quite to the same degree."
Of course by-elections from Orpington onwards have a long tradition of sending a message to the Government and a very big "protest vote". Voters in Peterborough can also use it to send a message to Labour. A poor showing in Peterborough will push them further into supporting a referendum. Indeed more than that - the good voters there will be sending someone to vote on Brexit (about the only issue in Parliament!) and if memory serves me right exiting with no deal was only defeated by one vote.
It baffles me slightly why all voters in Peterborough won't be voting either BXP or Lib Dem - and I am sure many won't. But we will see in 6 days and a few hours time!
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Post by justin124 on May 30, 2019 17:51:05 GMT
Perhaps people are nothing like as obsessed with Brexit as the commentariat continues to assume! Were it otherwise, turnout would have been much higher than 37% last week.
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middyman
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Post by middyman on May 30, 2019 18:29:00 GMT
Perhaps people are nothing like as obsessed with Brexit as the commentariat continues to assume! Were it otherwise, turnout would have been much higher than 37% last week. Was it not up on 5 years ago? The turnout for the referendum was a record. Many leave voters have become totally disenchanted with politicians and didn't vote as a protest. Turnout was down in leave areas, up in remain.
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Post by justin124 on May 30, 2019 19:05:20 GMT
Perhaps people are nothing like as obsessed with Brexit as the commentariat continues to assume! Were it otherwise, turnout would have been much higher than 37% last week. Was it not up on 5 years ago? The turnout for the referendum was a record. Many leave voters have become totally disenchanted with politicians and didn't vote as a protest. Turnout was down in leave areas, up in remain. Turnout was slightly up on 2014 - but 37% hardly suggests that voters are straining at the leash desperate to express an opinion on the matter. Parliamentary by elections in the past have seen turnout well above 70% when voters felt really stirred - eg Darlington 1983 - Orpington 1962
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hempie
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Post by hempie on May 30, 2019 19:17:12 GMT
A quick drive around Peterborough today and not much evidence of an election in a week's time. The only posters I saw were 4 huge Labour posters on the sides of houses/shops in the Central and Park ward areas of the city. I suspect they are almost permanent fixtures!
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middyman
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Post by middyman on May 30, 2019 20:22:01 GMT
A quick drive around Peterborough today and not much evidence of an election in a week's time. The only posters I saw were 4 huge Labour posters on the sides of houses/shops in the Central and Park ward areas of the city. I suspect they are almost permanent fixtures! I am sure that voter-fatigue will play a part.
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Post by michael2019 on May 30, 2019 20:40:55 GMT
Was it not up on 5 years ago? The turnout for the referendum was a record. Many leave voters have become totally disenchanted with politicians and didn't vote as a protest. Turnout was down in leave areas, up in remain. Turnout was slightly up on 2014 - but 37% hardly suggests that voters are straining at the leash desperate to express an opinion on the matter. Parliamentary by elections in the past have seen turnout well above 70% when voters felt really stirred - eg Darlington 1983 - Orpington 1962
It's a fair point.
But you do also have to factor in that since 2004 until 2014 Euros were held on the same day as local elections. In 1999 when they weren't turnout was 22%. I do note for those getting excited by this year's results that the Tories "won" those Euro elections and it didn't do them much good in the medium term. Although prior to that turnout at Euros was mainly above 30% but below 37% and you have to factor in a long term trend of falling turnouts even if that has been slightly reversed at recent general elections - certainly since the 60s. 2019 was the highest ever for Euros not held on the same day as local elections and the second highest ever after 2004 (and elections on the same day that year included the London Assembly and London Mayor).
No doubt someone will be along with a list of by-election turnouts and I do note that even Orpington was (slightly) below the two general elections there either side of the by-election - even if it was above 80%!!! I think with the long term decline in turnouts (and I suspect greater mobility - people tend to vote more where they have greater roots) depending on the type of seat and how close it's perceived to be 50% would be considered pretty "healthy" at a by-election these days.
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middyman
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Post by middyman on May 30, 2019 21:03:33 GMT
I am sure that voter-fatigue will play a part. you mean the Brenda from Bristol factor? I suppose so but in very short order they have had recall petition, locals, euros and now a by-election. Too much demand on the shoe leather.
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