Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 21:28:22 GMT
interesting article in the guardian BxP openly say theyve no data to do a GOTV operation. Labour say 'it's not as bad as they feared' and that despite brexit dominating everything on the day their pretty hopeful that Labour will win Well they wouldn't have as the only work they will have done would have been for the Euros.They have no ownership of data preceeding that. It didn't stop them then. I don't ina they had an operation then either just relying on the vote coming out
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Post by finsobruce on May 29, 2019 21:31:10 GMT
Well they wouldn't have as the only work they will have done would have been for the Euros.They have no ownership of data preceeding that. It didn't stop them then. I don't ina they had an operation then either just relying on the vote coming out Indeed.
And it did.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 29, 2019 21:32:19 GMT
BXP seem nailed on here, I'm surprised so many of you think Labour will win. Firstly both main parties have strong local organisations, and the Brexit Party doesn't. Labour also is quite good at bussing in activists, Brexit Party don't have an activist organisation to speak of. Lastly Labour is putting a lot of shadow cabinet time in this, which indicates they scent a win. Labour might be knackered from the effort involved in pretending that Onasanya was never anything to do with them!
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Post by finsobruce on May 29, 2019 21:32:19 GMT
Well they wouldn't have as the only work they will have done would have been for the Euros.They have no ownership of data preceeding that. It didn't stop them then. But the Peterborough by election doesn't ask you what you think about Europe. I think it might do. It would certainly be one of the pre-eminent questions.
It can hardly be avoided.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 29, 2019 21:32:42 GMT
I don't ina they had an operation then either just relying on the vote coming out Indeed.
And it did.
Yes tge question is will it come out in the by election
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Post by finsobruce on May 29, 2019 21:35:13 GMT
Yes tge question is will it come out in the by election i don't see any reason why not, depending on how hard they fight it.
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Post by finsobruce on May 29, 2019 21:35:55 GMT
Firstly both main parties have strong local organisations, and the Brexit Party doesn't. Labour also is quite good at bussing in activists, Brexit Party don't have an activist organisation to speak of. Lastly Labour is putting a lot of shadow cabinet time in this, which indicates they scent a win. Labour might be knackered from the effort involved in pretending that Onasanya was never anything to do with them! Who? Never heard of her.
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Adrian
Co-operative Party
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Post by Adrian on May 29, 2019 23:09:17 GMT
I take the point about party organisation, but BXP has been so slick so far that I wouldn't bet against them.
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right
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Post by right on May 30, 2019 6:07:13 GMT
I take the point about party organisation, but BXP has been so slick so far that I wouldn't bet against them. It's not been as a ground operation. That's barely mattered in the Euros - although ground operations in traditional but Eurosceptic Lib Dems areas do seem to have helped the Lib Dems.
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Post by carlton43 on May 30, 2019 7:26:16 GMT
The Euro results and opinion polls notwithstanding, it is of course incredibly rare for anyone to be elected to Parliament who is not standing for one of the major parties. When it has happened in recent years, it has almost without exception been someone already a sitting MP for another party who defects or else someone already possessing a significant national profile. While a Brexit gain is possible, we need to see this possibility in context. I can not recall the last time a largely unknown candidate standing for a party with no MPs was successful. I do think it will be a reasonably close run thing though because of the momentum from the Euro elections, but not too close. My guess would be something like this: Labour 37% Brexit 32% Conservative 15% Lib Dem 10% Green 4% Others 2% We are out of comfort zone and in pure guess territory here. Wise observations Peter but this time around we are in new conditions with the very tectonic plates shifting under our feet as we make those guesses. My first punt The BP 35 Lab 30 Con 20 Others 15 This will be a a squeeze on everyone by everyone and seen to be a 3-horse race, so the left and Remain will gravitate to Labour (unless Labour insist on 'being very clear' in their total ambiguity) and the right and Leave will gravitate to the BP. Conservatives and LDs will fight for their lives and fail but could between them determine the result. A Conservative weakness or failure ensures it for the BP. A very strong showing by the LDs would dish Labour. A strong showing by both will make it very close. I think this is too close to the Euros for the 'BP Effect' to have worn off and to early for the majors to have recovered. If it was two months later and there was a new Hard Brexit Conservative Leader in place, then I think the dynamic would change and the Conservatives would gain it. But they wont next month.
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2019 7:44:02 GMT
Yes tge question is will it come out in the by election i don't see any reason why not, depending on how hard they fight it. well the BxP vote seems quite soft. Half of BxP supporters have reported they'll stick with the party after the Euros. However, clearly there were leavers that did stay at home would they come out for the by election
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Post by Deleted on May 30, 2019 7:44:27 GMT
I take the point about party organisation, but BXP has been so slick so far that I wouldn't bet against them. they have been all credit to them
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Post by finsobruce on May 30, 2019 7:56:14 GMT
i don't see any reason why not, depending on how hard they fight it. well the BxP vote seems quite soft. Half of BxP supporters have reported they'll stick with the party after the Euros. However, clearly there were leavers that did stay at home would they come out for the by election But not in the usual sense. The strength of the party vote is inextricably linked to the progress or otherwise of the issue that caused its formation. That isn't even close to being resolved at the moment and it'll be sometime before it is. There were lots of voters from all positions who stayed at home, not just them.
When it is (if that ever happens) the next question is what Farage does with the vehicle? Park it or drive on with becoming a 'permanent' national party in opposition to the Tories (at least some of the time). And so on...
In the meantime it is still basking in the sun.
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Post by carlton43 on May 30, 2019 8:12:04 GMT
BXP seem nailed on here, I'm surprised so many of you think Labour will win. interesting article in the guardian BxP openly say theyve no data to do a GOTV operation. Labour say 'it's not as bad as they feared' and that despite brexit dominating everything on the day their pretty hopeful that Labour will win I would have thought getting 'the necessary' through 'friendly' Conservative activists would be fairly easy especially if the Conservatives don't think they cab win. It won't be a problem in the age of IT.
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Post by finsobruce on May 30, 2019 8:24:29 GMT
interesting article in the guardian BxP openly say theyve no data to do a GOTV operation. Labour say 'it's not as bad as they feared' and that despite brexit dominating everything on the day their pretty hopeful that Labour will win I would have thought getting 'the necessary' through 'friendly' Conservative activists would be fairly easy especially if the Conservatives don't think they cab win. It won't be a problem in the age of IT. And completely illegal..... (and unnecessary in this case).
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Post by torremark on May 30, 2019 8:28:19 GMT
I would have thought getting 'the necessary' through 'friendly' Conservative activists would be fairly easy especially if the Conservatives don't think they cab win. It won't be a problem in the age of IT. And completely illegal..... (and unnecessary in this case). I’m sure they couldn’t have inherited the UKIP data after all that would be illegal
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Post by michael2019 on May 30, 2019 8:29:06 GMT
The Euro results and opinion polls notwithstanding, it is of course incredibly rare for anyone to be elected to Parliament who is not standing for one of the major parties. When it has happened in recent years, it has almost without exception been someone already a sitting MP for another party who defects or else someone already possessing a significant national profile. While a Brexit gain is possible, we need to see this possibility in context. I can not recall the last time a largely unknown candidate standing for a party with no MPs was successful. I do think it will be a reasonably close run thing though because of the momentum from the Euro elections, but not too close. My guess would be something like this: Labour 37% Brexit 32% Conservative 15% Lib Dem 10% Green 4% Others 2% We are out of comfort zone and in pure guess territory here. Wise observations Peter but this time around we are in new conditions with the very tectonic plates shifting under our feet as we make those guesses. My first punt The BP 35 Lab 30 Con 20 Others 15 This will be a a squeeze on everyone by everyone and seen to be a 3-horse race, so the left and Remain will gravitate to Labour (unless Labour insist on 'being very clear' in their total ambiguity) and the right and Leave will gravitate to the BP. Conservatives and LDs will fight for their lives and fail but could between them determine the result. A Conservative weakness or failure ensures it for the BP. A very strong showing by the LDs would dish Labour. A strong showing by both will make it very close. I think this is too close to the Euros for the 'BP Effect' to have worn off and to early for the majors to have recovered. If it was two months later and there was a new Hard Brexit Conservative Leader in place, then I think the dynamic would change and the Conservatives would gain it. But they wont next month.
It's very, very difficult in my view to see the right baseline as anything other the euro election result. Indeed this will be the Euro election with knobs on as it is precisely what the good people of Peterborough are doing - sending someone to Peterborough to vote on Brexit. I am not local but I don't think that Peterborough constituency differs vastly from the wider Peterborough council area - but if it does then let's know.
So the right baseline is BXP 38%, Lab 17%, LD 15%, Con 11%, Green 11%, LD 15%, UKIP 4%, Change 3%.
BXP don't need any ground game at all as the Euros show given that Conservative members let alone voters are voting for them! Indeed the best thing for the Conservative would be to no GOTV at all - given they will only be dragging "Conservatives" out to vote who will actually vote BXP.
The challenge is who will be the Remain standard bearer. I guess for their bar charts it would have helped the LDs if they had come second in the Euros across Peterborough! And if there is a constituency opinion poll before next Thursday that could change thing. LDs can say as well to Remainers send a message to Labour to change their policy to a referendum. But there is potentially a whopping Remain vote to be picked up (Green - can't win here (whereas they could a bit in the Euros last week), Change (definitely can't win here! and Labour remainers).
You can easily see BXP getting above 40% and whoever leads the Remain charge (and Labour have some difficulty claiming that with their policy) getting a bandwagon behind them. But it is very unclear at the moment whether a bandwagon is and will role on the Remain side either for the LDs or Labour.
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Post by finsobruce on May 30, 2019 8:34:02 GMT
And completely illegal..... (and unnecessary in this case). I’m sure they couldn’t have inherited the UKIP data after all that would be illegal Indeed, I pointed this out previously. But the main point is that they didn't need it. This issue has its own voilition.
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Post by finsobruce on May 30, 2019 9:07:36 GMT
And completely illegal..... (and unnecessary in this case). Carlton does not always hold much value to the rules and regulations underpinning electoral law, to be honest In theory possibly, in practise I suspect those on the ground are being more circumspect these days.
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Post by carlton43 on May 30, 2019 9:49:53 GMT
And completely illegal..... (and unnecessary in this case). I’m sure they couldn’t have inherited the UKIP data after all that would be illegal But very easy to do.
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