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Post by lancastrian on Nov 30, 2019 20:11:31 GMT
Lol
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,892
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Post by jamie on Nov 30, 2019 20:13:57 GMT
This loaded before the tweet, so for a moment I thought the Con lead might have actually increased 😅
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 20:19:18 GMT
Seven consecutive polls with perfectly aligned 13%s. Maybe the stars have aligned for the pollsters, or maybe they're herding. In either case, the standard deviation seems too low.
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jamie
Top Poster
Posts: 6,892
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Post by jamie on Nov 30, 2019 20:23:52 GMT
Seven consecutive polls with perfectly aligned 13%s. Maybe the stars have aligned for the pollsters, or maybe they're herding. In either case, the standard deviation seems too low. If they were herding wouldn’t they focus on the Con/Lab numbers? They’re the ones that get the most attention and matter in terms of who ‘wins’.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 20:25:10 GMT
Seven consecutive polls with perfectly aligned 13%s. Maybe the stars have aligned for the pollsters, or maybe they're herding. In either case, the standard deviation seems too low. If they were herding wouldn’t they focus on the Con/Lab numbers? They’re the ones that get the most attention and matter in terms of who ‘wins’. Perhaps there's a bit more pressure there. I just would have expected a bit more variation for an average of 13%.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 21:02:06 GMT
Some interesting findings beneath the toplines about who undecided voters (16% of voters, currently) are considering:
Undecided remain voters: LD 53% CON 38% LAB 36% GRN 18% BxP 2% Independent 9%
Undecided leave voters: CON 65% LAB 23% LD 17% GRN 17% BxP 16% Independent 15%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 30, 2019 21:22:00 GMT
Given that "even" YouGov now have the Tory lead down to 9%, is there anybody on the entire planet who doesn't think this one is utter junk?
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 30, 2019 21:23:04 GMT
Given that "even" YouGov now have the Tory lead down to 9%, is there anybody on the entire planet who doesn't think this one is utter junk? I don't. Outliers aren't inherently junk.
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Post by lancastrian on Nov 30, 2019 21:28:18 GMT
Writing off outliers would be foolish given the average poll has been hopeless in recent elections. But the Tories are not 15 points up.
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mike
Non-Aligned
Posts: 400
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Opinium
Nov 30, 2019 22:01:12 GMT
via mobile
Post by mike on Nov 30, 2019 22:01:12 GMT
Some interesting findings beneath the toplines about who undecided voters (16% of voters, currently) are considering: Undecided remain voters: LD 53% CON 38% LAB 36% GRN 18% BxP 2% Independent 9% Undecided leave voters: CON 65% LAB 23% LD 17% GRN 17% BxP 16% Independent 15% Do we know if there are more undecided among leave or remain voters or is it roughly even?
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Opinium
Dec 1, 2019 8:46:45 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Dec 1, 2019 8:46:45 GMT
Some interesting findings beneath the toplines about who undecided voters (16% of voters, currently) are considering: Undecided remain voters: LD 53% CON 38% LAB 36% GRN 18% BxP 2% Independent 9% Undecided leave voters: CON 65% LAB 23% LD 17% GRN 17% BxP 16% Independent 15% Do we know if there are more undecided among leave or remain voters or is it roughly even? This is accompanied by a poll showing Lib Dems close to unseating Raab in Esher and Walton. Maybe tactical voting really will work this time (fingers crossed)
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Opinium
Dec 1, 2019 8:48:54 GMT
via mobile
Post by andrew111 on Dec 1, 2019 8:48:54 GMT
Given that "even" YouGov now have the Tory lead down to 9%, is there anybody on the entire planet who doesn't think this one is utter junk? I think it is at one end of the distribution. This has been true several times of polls that predicted election results correctly!
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,798
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 1, 2019 10:11:56 GMT
The point is, virtually nobody believes the polls are wrong in *this* direction.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Opinium
Dec 1, 2019 17:01:47 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2019 17:01:47 GMT
Tories lead is because of the disparity in the leave vote. Most polls have tories lead at 46% among leavers. Opinium have it at 62%
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Post by andrewp on Dec 7, 2019 18:51:35 GMT
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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Opinium
Dec 7, 2019 18:55:20 GMT
via mobile
Post by Vibe on Dec 7, 2019 18:55:20 GMT
At this rate some of the pollsters are going to have egg on their faces. There is a big difference between a 6 and 15 point lead - a small majority, or a landslide.
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Post by andrewp on Dec 7, 2019 18:56:51 GMT
At this rate some of the pollsters are going to have egg on their faces. There is a big difference between a 6 and 15 point lead - a small majority, or a landslide. Yep, someone is quite wrong.
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Jack
Reform Party
Posts: 8,166
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Post by Jack on Dec 7, 2019 19:07:10 GMT
I'll wait for the MRP.
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Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Dec 7, 2019 19:11:04 GMT
6, 8 and 15?
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Post by tonygreaves on Dec 7, 2019 22:12:28 GMT
Perhaps they've just saved money and used last week's poll?
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