The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 15, 2018 10:46:15 GMT
I suppose the idea is also that many swing voters might eventually be prepared to vote against the Tories rather than for Labour as such.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 10:59:09 GMT
I genuinely believe that if a drop in the Tory vote were to happen, which it might not, most would not go to Labour in England and Wales, here in Scotland it’s a different story. If you were a Tory voter who wasn’t wooed over by the Commie Light manifesto before, why would you now when it’s costings on nationalisations have been exposed as fraudulent? Further, they’re already rolling back promises to students and when so much more, let’s call it unpleasantness, has been revealed since the election? It would mostly go to the Liberals and UKIP, probably. But have they? I'm not disagreeing with your scepticism about the costings as such, or indeed with your guess as to the direction of a hypothetical drop in the Tory vote, but I don't get the sense that the public are walking around tutting about how Labour's figures didn't add up; I think the manifesto became a dead letter for the general public the day after the election, all people remember is whether they liked it or not at the time. I can see that it would be an area for detailed attack by a good Tory campaign if a GE were called tomorrow, and I take your point that it would be hard to win over more Tory voters without a better pitch on the detail than last time, I think it's the sort of thing that matters to the sort of voter who might swing between Tory and Labour. But I suspect Labour's strategy is as Merseymike has suggested, i.e. not to chase those swing voters but to go for non-voters and high turn-out of their own voters while hoping to depress 2017 Tory voters into apathy. I would say they have been exposed as such. Having watched, even since the election, expert interviewers such as Andrew Neil and Laura Kuenssberg pick apart the costings I’d say it has more than met the threshold to be described as such, but that can be a matter of opinion of course. I also accept the public aren’t wandering around now wondering about Labour’s maths now but as you said a decent campaign by my party could make sure that those doubts are at the forefront of people’s minds when they enter the ballot booth. As for Labour’s Electoral strategy I don’t think it’ll work, not just because of the law of diminishing returns given this was basically what happened last time but because a lot of Tories didn’t vote or protest voted for other parties last June and were scared by Labour’s advance. They just didn’t think Corbyn would get so close to Downing Street. Those apathetic Tory voters will vote Tory next time even if Boris were leading the party. That’s anecdotal and heavily opinionated I know, but it’s what I suspect.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 15, 2018 11:03:14 GMT
But have they? I'm not disagreeing with your scepticism about the costings as such, or indeed with your guess as to the direction of a hypothetical drop in the Tory vote, but I don't get the sense that the public are walking around tutting about how Labour's figures didn't add up; I think the manifesto became a dead letter for the general public the day after the election, all people remember is whether they liked it or not at the time. I can see that it would be an area for detailed attack by a good Tory campaign if a GE were called tomorrow, and I take your point that it would be hard to win over more Tory voters without a better pitch on the detail than last time, I think it's the sort of thing that matters to the sort of voter who might swing between Tory and Labour. But I suspect Labour's strategy is as Merseymike has suggested, i.e. not to chase those swing voters but to go for non-voters and high turn-out of their own voters while hoping to depress 2017 Tory voters into apathy. I would say they have been exposed as such. Having watched, even since the election, expert interviewers such as Andrew Neil and Laura Kuenssberg pick apart the costings I’d say it has more than met the threshold to be described as such, but that can be a matter of opinion of course. I also accept the public aren’t wandering around now wondering about Labour’s maths now but as you said a decent campaign by my party could make sure that those doubts are at the forefront of people’s minds when they enter the ballot booth. As for Labour’s Electoral strategy I don’t think it’ll work, not just because of the law of diminishing returns given this was basically what happened last time but because a lot of Tories didn’t vote or protest voted for other parties last June and were scared by Labour’s advance. They just didn’t think Corbyn would get so close to Downing Street. Those apathetic Tory voters will vote Tory next time even if Boris were leading the party. That’s anecdotal and heavily opinionated I know, but it’s what I suspect. Given that turnout was the highest since 1997, and the Tory share their best since the 1980s, this quite frankly seems like wishful thinking to me.
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Deleted
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Opinium
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 11:07:01 GMT
Theres a study saying that turnout was 10 points higher than we initially thought.
Commie light lol thats right we're all communists here...
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jan 15, 2018 11:10:07 GMT
As for why Tory support is still currently holding up despite everything, the reasons are very simple - Brexit, Brexit and.....er, Brexit.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 15, 2018 11:17:07 GMT
I would say they have been exposed as such. Having watched, even since the election, expert interviewers such as Andrew Neil and Laura Kuenssberg pick apart the costings I’d say it has more than met the threshold to be described as such, but that can be a matter of opinion of course. I also accept the public aren’t wandering around now wondering about Labour’s maths now but as you said a decent campaign by my party could make sure that those doubts are at the forefront of people’s minds when they enter the ballot booth. As for Labour’s Electoral strategy I don’t think it’ll work, not just because of the law of diminishing returns given this was basically what happened last time but because a lot of Tories didn’t vote or protest voted for other parties last June and were scared by Labour’s advance. They just didn’t think Corbyn would get so close to Downing Street. Those apathetic Tory voters will vote Tory next time even if Boris were leading the party. That’s anecdotal and heavily opinionated I know, but it’s what I suspect. Given that turnout was the highest since 1997, and the Tory share their best since the 1980s, this quite frankly seems like wishful thinking to me. Turnout was disappointing in some Tory areas like south Essex. For example I think it was the first time it was higher in Hackney North than Southend West. Just one example but there are plenty of others.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 11:24:24 GMT
I would say they have been exposed as such. Having watched, even since the election, expert interviewers such as Andrew Neil and Laura Kuenssberg pick apart the costings I’d say it has more than met the threshold to be described as such, but that can be a matter of opinion of course. I also accept the public aren’t wandering around now wondering about Labour’s maths now but as you said a decent campaign by my party could make sure that those doubts are at the forefront of people’s minds when they enter the ballot booth. As for Labour’s Electoral strategy I don’t think it’ll work, not just because of the law of diminishing returns given this was basically what happened last time but because a lot of Tories didn’t vote or protest voted for other parties last June and were scared by Labour’s advance. They just didn’t think Corbyn would get so close to Downing Street. Those apathetic Tory voters will vote Tory next time even if Boris were leading the party. That’s anecdotal and heavily opinionated I know, but it’s what I suspect. Given that turnout was the highest since 1997, and the Tory share their best since the 1980s, this quite frankly seems like wishful thinking to me. I disagree. If politics has changed and England and Wales is now a two party system and Scotland a dominant issue system, as we are told and as seems apparent, then surely vote share from prior elections, other than June, is largely meaningless? Also as Andrew_S said turnout in some Tory areas was uncharacteristically low, I doubt that they’d sit in their hands and let Jeremy walk through the door of number ten without their voice being heard.
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Post by ccoleman on Jan 15, 2018 12:21:25 GMT
On the other hand, if people in Labour areas that typically have low turnout, continue to turnout in higher numbers, that will obviously help Labour. I think a lot of people are very motivated to vote for Corbyn, but in the past were never motivated to vote for anyone else. And turnout can increase further still, but obviously I wouldn't bank on it.
And seats like Southend West had big swings to Labour. I wouldn't call Southend West your typical south Essex seat. Corybn's Labour did well in a surprising number of places - including many middle England swing seats. I don't think he's as repellent to such voters as many think.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jan 15, 2018 13:13:33 GMT
I suppose the idea is also that many swing voters might eventually be prepared to vote against the Tories rather than for Labour as such. I think there was a fair bit of that already in 2017. I had Lib Dem party members* (party members!) asking why our candidate wasn't standing down to "stop the Tories" ... * Well, one. But she wasn't the only one who voted Labour to deny a Conservative majority.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 13:31:49 GMT
Its is brexit but thats too simple an explanation. More than half of brexit voters are opting for the Tories 80% of which ate 100% committed to voting
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 14:40:39 GMT
As for why Tory support is still currently holding up despite everything, the reasons are very simple - Brexit, Brexit and.....er, Brexit. And Corbyn.
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Jack
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Post by Jack on Jan 15, 2018 15:02:57 GMT
I think that we can safely discount David's rantings. Rational analysis which other contributors have by & large attempted to carry out is more likely to be accurate. I do not know why so many Tories insist that Jeremy Corbyn PROMISED to eliminate student debt when it's absolutely clear that he promised to "have a look at it". If he wants to indulge in wishful thinking, however, who am I to deny his wish? Yeah, I wonder where they get that idea from...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 15:09:42 GMT
I think that we can safely discount David's rantings. Rational analysis which other contributors have by & large attempted to carry out is more likely to be accurate. I do not know why so many Tories insist that Jeremy Corbyn PROMISED to eliminate student debt when it's absolutely clear that he promised to "have a look at it". If he wants to indulge in wishful thinking, however, who am I to deny his wish? Yeah, I wonder where they get that idea from... Leave them to their wishful thinking Jack. If they want to go down the Liberal path of breaking promises to students, who am I to deny them this wish?😂
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 15, 2018 15:11:20 GMT
Yeah, I wonder where they get that idea from... Barnaby, I think we have to put our hands up on this one. In our defence we didn’t actually expect to win. a defence that worked out well for Clegg
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middyman
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Post by middyman on Jan 15, 2018 15:27:59 GMT
Yeah, I wonder where they get that idea from... Barnaby, I think we have to put our hands up on this one. In our defence we didn’t actually expect to win. Are you saying that if you do not expect to win, there is no need for honesty in your promises to the electorate?
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 15, 2018 15:29:44 GMT
a defence that worked out well for Clegg The frustrating thing is I, a mere foot soldier, knew our manifesto policy- I read the damn thing! Pollard and many other candidates clearly did not. Maybe, or maybe they were using centrally provided templates for leaflets (I would genuinely like to know if the leaflet above was to a national template of home produced)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 15:30:07 GMT
If candidates like Luke Pollard and Afzal Khan chose to campaign on a pledge that was not policy or in the manifesto they shouldn't have and were wrong to do so.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2018 15:32:31 GMT
It was not a national template. I campaigned in St Albans, Leicester, Derby and Corby. Never saw it before.
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Crimson King
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Post by Crimson King on Jan 15, 2018 15:34:47 GMT
It was not a national template. I campaigned in St Albans, Leicester, Derby and Corby. Never saw it before. Thanks, I do tend to agree with your analysis that he knew what he was doing and shouldn't have, rather than 'The Rose' tinted version that he was ignorant
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 15, 2018 15:34:50 GMT
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