Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2018 21:20:35 GMT
Is rather better than the 24% Labour were at a month before the 2017 election. 😉 Being five points behind in a poll when you're against the government we have currently is really nothing to celebrate. In more normal times, Labour would probably be around ten points ahead right now. At least. follow the trend stop getting over excited by individual polls. Plus in usual times 60% of leace voters wouldn't be backing the Tories
|
|
mondialito
Labour
Everything is horribly, brutally possible.
Posts: 4,924
|
Post by mondialito on Oct 21, 2018 21:39:04 GMT
While not great, I won't worry unless I see these numbers in the spring.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 21, 2018 22:19:28 GMT
While not great, I won't worry unless I see these numbers in the spring. Come on, these are the figures when the govt are all over the shop and have been for months. The opposition should be building up a mid-term lead before the govt gets to try to shove a few electoral bribes about. (Not a purely anti-Labour point, my party is the opposition too.) I still expect things to get worse for May et al, you can see the road running out in front of them, but if you look at the tracker here you've got a consistent Labour lead from just after the election until April and then a consistent Tory lead since apart from a blip in late July/early August. Significantly that blip was due to a drop in the Tory VI which has only partially recovered but Labour's VI continues to drip away.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 21, 2018 23:18:38 GMT
While not great, I won't worry unless I see these numbers in the spring. Come on, these are the figures when the govt are all over the shop and have been for months. The opposition should be building up a mid-term lead before the govt gets to try to shove a few electoral bribes about. (Not a purely anti-Labour point, my party is the opposition too.) I still expect things to get worse for May et al, you can see the road running out in front of them, but if you look at the tracker here you've got a consistent Labour lead from just after the election until April and then a consistent Tory lead since apart from a blip in late July/early August. Significantly that blip was due to a drop in the Tory VI which has only partially recovered but Labour's VI continues to drip away. this isnt true. The most recent poll from every pollster in October shows Labour up. Including Kanter as the changes above are wrong
|
|
|
Post by archaeologist on Oct 22, 2018 7:12:38 GMT
Come on, these are the figures when the govt are all over the shop and have been for months. The opposition should be building up a mid-term lead before the govt gets to try to shove a few electoral bribes about. (Not a purely anti-Labour point, my party is the opposition too.) I still expect things to get worse for May et al, you can see the road running out in front of them, but if you look at the tracker here you've got a consistent Labour lead from just after the election until April and then a consistent Tory lead since apart from a blip in late July/early August. Significantly that blip was due to a drop in the Tory VI which has only partially recovered but Labour's VI continues to drip away. this isnt true. The most recent poll from every pollster in October shows Labour up. Including Kanter as the changes above are wrong Hmm. BMG 5 Oct Lab -1, Kantar 15 Oct Lab +1, Opinium 12 Oct Lab -2, Survation 10 Oct Lab +2, YouGov Lab +1. Three up and two down. Ranging between 36 and 39%. In the same polls Conservatives +3, +1, +2, +2, -1 and ranging from 38 to 41%. If I were a Labour supporter then I would be concerned.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 22, 2018 8:15:48 GMT
Come on, these are the figures when the govt are all over the shop and have been for months. The opposition should be building up a mid-term lead before the govt gets to try to shove a few electoral bribes about. (Not a purely anti-Labour point, my party is the opposition too.) I still expect things to get worse for May et al, you can see the road running out in front of them, but if you look at the tracker here you've got a consistent Labour lead from just after the election until April and then a consistent Tory lead since apart from a blip in late July/early August. Significantly that blip was due to a drop in the Tory VI which has only partially recovered but Labour's VI continues to drip away. this isnt true. The most recent poll from every pollster in October shows Labour up. Including Kanter as the changes above are wrong Follow the link and look at the graph. The trend is as I have said.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2018 8:18:57 GMT
this isnt true. The most recent poll from every pollster in October shows Labour up. Including Kanter as the changes above are wrong Follow the link and look at the graph. The trend is as I have said. graph has not been updated 7th of October was last updare
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2018 8:21:56 GMT
this isnt true. The most recent poll from every pollster in October shows Labour up. Including Kanter as the changes above are wrong Hmm. BMG 5 Oct Lab -1, Kantar 15 Oct Lab +1, Opinium 12 Oct Lab -2, Survation 10 Oct Lab +2, YouGov Lab +1. Three up and two down. Ranging between 36 and 39%. In the same polls Conservatives +3, +1, +2, +2, -1 and ranging from 38 to 41%. If I were a Labour supporter then I would be concerned. the BMG changes are up 1 see below from bmg themselves Opinium is a change with a poll from the same month likely an outlier as last poll in September Labour were on 36
|
|
|
Post by archaeologist on Oct 22, 2018 8:55:05 GMT
Hmm. BMG 5 Oct Lab -1, Kantar 15 Oct Lab +1, Opinium 12 Oct Lab -2, Survation 10 Oct Lab +2, YouGov Lab +1. Three up and two down. Ranging between 36 and 39%. In the same polls Conservatives +3, +1, +2, +2, -1 and ranging from 38 to 41%. If I were a Labour supporter then I would be concerned. the BMG changes are up 1 see below from bmg themselves Opinium is a change with a poll from the same month likely an outlier as last poll in September Labour were on 36 I was taking the later BMG poll of the 29 Sep as the previous one, in which Lab were on 40%. I would rather be consistent and measure the increase decrease from the last poll to the prevous one, than simply pick and choose which polls seems best. We don't know which polls are outliers and which aren't. The polls are all over the place and within quite large margins of error. Nevertheless, to get back to the original point - if I were a Labour supporter I would be somewhat concerned that overall the poll are less favourable for Labour than for the Conservatives at the moment.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,607
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2018 9:18:24 GMT
Is rather better than the 24% Labour were at a month before the 2017 election. 😉 Being five points behind in a poll when you're against the government we have currently is really nothing to celebrate. In more normal times, Labour would probably be around ten points ahead right now. At least. And you said it yourself, these are not "normal times". Yes of course all Labour supporters would like the party to be doing better (certainly than in this latest poll) but it is also valid to compare things to how they were in the 2015-17 parliament, when only three polls out of hundreds showed a Labour lead (curiously all were from YouGov, one of the better Tory pollsters at the minute) Whilst 2018 has mainly been a year of stasis in the polls, 2019 looks more likely to be one of change. Though that could go in more than one direction, so no complacency
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Oct 22, 2018 10:02:39 GMT
I suspect that Brexit has effectively frozen out the Opposition from day to day commentary, and that as a consequence the polls are likely to be flattering the Tories. It is also a myth that Oppositions should be surging ahead in the early stages of a Parliament. There are plenty of examples of the Opposition performing more strongly at the following election than was implied by polls less than 18 months into a Parliament.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,607
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Oct 22, 2018 10:45:09 GMT
Given all that's going on this really isn't very good for Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition is it? changes are wrong I suspect they are compared with an unpublished poll since the last public one? Though this is one of several annoying pollster habits.
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 22, 2018 11:02:09 GMT
Follow the link and look at the graph. The trend is as I have said. graph has not been updated 7th of October was last update Hadn't spotted that, but my point was not "Labour is declining, here's a graph to show it", it was "here's the graph since the GE, the trend is Labour declining since spring". I don't think the October polls show anything better than maybe a stabilisation for Labour, so the basic picture of: - Lab lead summer 2017 through to spring 2018, - Con lead after that with a blip at the start of the school holidays, still stands. As does the point that the reason for the Con lead is not so much a Con recovery as a slow leak for Lab over the summer. 2019 could be very rocky for May and the Cons; autumn 2018 through to Brexit day was always going to be the crisis point, but given the car crash of Chequers, the details of the Grenfell enquiry emerging in the summer, and now the IPCC report (which ought to be right up Corbyn's street) it feels like a missed open goal to me.
|
|
|
Post by justin124 on Oct 22, 2018 11:09:39 GMT
Labour is performing better than at the same stage of the 1959 and 1987 Parliaments.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2018 11:30:23 GMT
graph has not been updated 7th of October was last update Hadn't spotted that, but my point was not "Labour is declining, here's a graph to show it", it was "here's the graph since the GE, the trend is Labour declining since spring". I don't think the October polls show anything better than maybe a stabilisation for Labour, so the basic picture of: - Lab lead summer 2017 through to spring 2018, - Con lead after that with a blip at the start of the school holidays, still stands. As does the point that the reason for the Con lead is not so much a Con recovery as a slow leak for Lab over the summer. 2019 could be very rocky for May and the Cons; autumn 2018 through to Brexit day was always going to be the crisis point, but given the car crash of Chequers, the details of the Grenfell enquiry emerging in the summer, and now the IPCC report (which ought to be right up Corbyn's street) it feels like a missed open goal to me. oh I see. I disagree that October has been nothing more of a stabilsation for Labour though. It's somewhat true that Labour have fallen rather than the Tories picked up but as was mentioned Labour the Tories too have picked up in the month of October. September certainly at the beginning saw Labour drop off more of a mixed picture later in that month
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2018 11:31:44 GMT
I suspect they are compared with an unpublished poll since the last public one? Though this is one of several annoying pollster habits. my guess it Britain Elects didn't report the September poll and thinks that Kanter haven't polled since August
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2018 11:39:06 GMT
the BMG changes are up 1 see below from bmg themselves Opinium is a change with a poll from the same month likely an outlier as last poll in September Labour were on 36 I was taking the later BMG poll of the 29 Sep as the previous one, in which Lab were on 40%. I would rather be consistent and measure the increase decrease from the last poll to the prevous one, than simply pick and choose which polls seems best. We don't know which polls are outliers and which aren't. The polls are all over the place and within quite large margins of error. Nevertheless, to get back to the original point - if I were a Labour supporter I would be somewhat concerned that overall the poll are less favourable for Labour than for the Conservatives at the moment. was commisioned by someone else the poll mid September and the poll beginning of October were commisioned by the Independent. The poll at the begining and end of September were commisioned Huffington Post. This is an important difference as they look for different thing, sometimes ask different questions and sometimes the methdology is different. Take Survations Scottish polls at the beginning of the month. Field work was similar time, same pollster but commissioned by someone different and o e was a phone poll one was online, unsurprisingly different results. If you want like for like you have to compare by who they were commisioned by
|
|
|
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Oct 22, 2018 12:09:49 GMT
Both lab and Con have enough voters/% to win an election outright. The key is which party can split the opposition vote enough to build up the 10,15,20 point leads to win.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 22, 2018 12:12:28 GMT
Both lab and Con have enough voters/% to win an election outright. The key is which party can split the opposition vote enough to build up the 10,15,20 point leads to win. unless there is a genuine split in either party people may continue to vote labour to stop the tories and tory to stop labour
|
|
|
Post by archaeologist on Oct 22, 2018 18:30:48 GMT
I was taking the later BMG poll of the 29 Sep as the previous one, in which Lab were on 40%. I would rather be consistent and measure the increase decrease from the last poll to the prevous one, than simply pick and choose which polls seems best. We don't know which polls are outliers and which aren't. The polls are all over the place and within quite large margins of error. Nevertheless, to get back to the original point - if I were a Labour supporter I would be somewhat concerned that overall the poll are less favourable for Labour than for the Conservatives at the moment. was commisioned by someone else the poll mid September and the poll beginning of October were commisioned by the Independent. The poll at the begining and end of September were commisioned Huffington Post. This is an important difference as they look for different thing, sometimes ask different questions and sometimes the methdology is different. Take Survations Scottish polls at the beginning of the month. Field work was similar time, same pollster but commissioned by someone different and o e was a phone poll one was online, unsurprisingly different results. If you want like for like you have to compare by who they were commisioned by OK, fair enough - but let's your preferred BMG comparitor, but also include the latest YouGov poll, (which I've only just found). The figures now would be BMG +1, Kantar +1, Opinium -2, Survation +2, YouGov -1. So, three up and two down. But my earlier point still stands - Conservatives +1, +1, +2, +2, 0. Conservative range 38 to 41, Labour range 36 to 39. I would still be concerned were I a Labour supporter.
|
|