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Post by andrewp on Oct 24, 2019 20:19:17 GMT
You dont have any opinion on how you expect certain people with certain strong opinions on certain topics should (i.e you would expect them to) vote? Yes, apologies I probably misunderstood the word should! Yes, certainly, How I would expect to them react, rather than how I think they should react.😀
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2019 20:19:42 GMT
I’m not sure I understand the logic of a Tory voter who would vote for the Brexit Party now, except those who see remain as better than anything but no deal.. It can only lead to a party considerably less likely to deliver any Brexit benefitting, I can more easily see why a Labour voter in Sunderland might have the rationale to vote for them. i think if you conclude that brexit will never happen brexitiers might go elsewhere
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 24, 2019 20:26:24 GMT
I didnt notice the fieldwork date tbf. However, for the fun of it, I put those figures into Electoral Calculator and it gave CON 265 LAB 263 SNP 51 LD 46 PC 3 GRN 1 NI 18 That would stop Brexit but would be a horrible parliament for getting much else agreed.
Progressive Alliance?
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 24, 2019 20:27:53 GMT
I’m not sure I understand the logic of a Tory voter who would vote for the Brexit Party now, except those who see remain as better than anything but no deal.. It can only lead to a party considerably less likely to deliver any Brexit benefitting, I can more easily see why a Labour voter in Sunderland might have the rationale to vote for them. i think if you conclude that brexit will never happen brexitiers might go elsewhere Certainly Farage has been pumping this theme for the last week! He's had dozens of callers to his radio show agreeing with him [hardly a surprise of course, but interesting nonetheless]
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Post by andrewp on Oct 24, 2019 20:29:23 GMT
I’m not sure I understand the logic of a Tory voter who would vote for the Brexit Party now, except those who see remain as better than anything but no deal.. It can only lead to a party considerably less likely to deliver any Brexit benefitting, I can more easily see why a Labour voter in Sunderland might have the rationale to vote for them. Johnson has failed to deliver Brexit, so he must be punished, or a party that will actually deliver Brexit must be elected, hence the Brexit Party. Obviously that will only result in a government opposed to Brexit. Johnson can try to get that across in a campaign, but that doesn't mean anyone will listen to him. Oh I know some people won’t get that message at all. It would depend if they ( helped by the media) could make it Boris v Jeremy. I slightly take my straws in the wind from my Dads position. He voted leave, but never ever believed that T.May ever wanted to leave, so he voted for the Brexit party in May purely to try and get rid of her and because it was a free hit and it didn’t matter. At the moment he thinks that Boris is doing all he can, and is being thwarted by parliament. He would never vote for the Brexit Party in a general anyway ‘because its risks Corbyn’
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2019 20:37:10 GMT
Johnson has failed to deliver Brexit, so he must be punished, or a party that will actually deliver Brexit must be elected, hence the Brexit Party. Obviously that will only result in a government opposed to Brexit. Johnson can try to get that across in a campaign, but that doesn't mean anyone will listen to him. Oh I know some people won’t get that message at all. It would depend if they ( helped by the media) could make it Boris v Jeremy. I slightly take my straws in the wind from my Dads position. He voted leave, but never ever believed that T.May ever wanted to leave, so he voted for the Brexit party in May purely to try and get rid of her and because it was a free hit and it didn’t matter. At the moment he thinks that Boris is doing all he can, and is being thwarted by parliament. He would never vote for the Brexit Party in a general anyway ‘because its risks Corbyn’ i think this is true until the point when only voting Brexit stops Corbyn
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Post by andrewp on Oct 24, 2019 20:42:53 GMT
Oh I know some people won’t get that message at all. It would depend if they ( helped by the media) could make it Boris v Jeremy. I slightly take my straws in the wind from my Dads position. He voted leave, but never ever believed that T.May ever wanted to leave, so he voted for the Brexit party in May purely to try and get rid of her and because it was a free hit and it didn’t matter. At the moment he thinks that Boris is doing all he can, and is being thwarted by parliament. He would never vote for the Brexit Party in a general anyway ‘because its risks Corbyn’ i think this is true until the point when only voting Brexit stops Corbyn He means that voting Brexit, and not Conservative, increases the risks of Corbyn, so he will vote Conservative.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 24, 2019 20:45:35 GMT
Seems like your dad has a logical and reasoning mind, unfortunately (or fortunately in this instance) most voters.....
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Post by Deleted on Oct 24, 2019 20:46:11 GMT
I know what you mean but I think if Brexit don't happen the party will do so well that voting tory will split the brexit vote
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 24, 2019 20:50:55 GMT
That would stop Brexit but would be a horrible parliament for getting much else agreed.
Progressive Alliance? Don't . just don't.
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Post by manchesterman on Oct 24, 2019 20:54:16 GMT
I know what you mean but I think if Brexit don't happen the party will do so well that voting tory will split the brexit vote this is basically what I was hoping the ComRes poll is suggesting may happen
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Post by robert1 on Nov 2, 2019 22:09:38 GMT
It'll be up elsewhere soon I am sure but the ComRes figures are:-
Con 36 +3 Lab 28 -1 LD 17 -1 Brexit
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Post by robert1 on Nov 2, 2019 22:12:22 GMT
Sorry incomplete Co 36 +3 Lab 28 -1 LD 17 -1 Brexit 10 -2 Grn 3 -1
Having difficulty aligning
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
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Post by cogload on Nov 2, 2019 22:24:32 GMT
Sorry incomplete Co             36 +3 Lab          28 -1 LD            17 -1 Brexit    10 -2 Grn           3 -1
Having difficulty aligning
This is where we are.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 2, 2019 22:57:39 GMT
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johng
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Post by johng on Nov 3, 2019 0:21:51 GMT
I posted the same comment on the Yougov thread, but...
''It's a big problem for the Lib Dems and Conservatives.
There are a hell of a lot of Lib Dem and Green votes out there for Labour to squeeze which would change the dynamics of the election dramatically.''
The LDs will obviously be up on 2017 and will do well in marginal seats where they campaign hard, but nationally I have this feeling their vote will be squeezed a lot by Labour.
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Post by robert1 on Nov 3, 2019 7:35:00 GMT
Could we please have a thread on polls-general discussion (or should I have put this on 'general articles on polls'?) I think there have been 8 polls published from Thursday to Sunday (YouGov, Opinium, Deltapoll, ComRes, ORB, Survation, Panelbase, Ipsos) for 7 of which comparison with previous polls by the same company is relevant. The exception being ORB. The range is Con 34-42, Lab 24-28, LD 14-20, Brexit 7-12. Every poll shows a Tory rise of 2%+. 5 polls show an increase in Labour's share, including the stunning 6% rise from YouGov. The remaining other two show a fall and no change. 6 polls show a Lib Dem decline, with Deltapoll producing -5%. One (Opinium) gives a 1% rise. As with the Lib Dems, Brexit is down in 6. These polls show fairly clear developments. (I won't use trends yet, it is too soon.) Probably the most significant 'development' is the opening up of a clear gap between Labour and the Lib Dems.
Also a rise of 6% and a fall of 5% show how volatile voters and polls are likely to be in coming weeks.
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Post by robert1 on Nov 4, 2019 8:35:33 GMT
Unfortunately there is no way, currently, of checking the precise level of each party's support at earlier times this year. I have however checked and the Labour figure is the highest since September 12th, while the Lib Dems is the lowest since the start of June.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2019 18:04:27 GMT
ComRes RRP model commissioned by United Remain has an excel spreadsheet with the vote shares exported from the website. I've highlighted the columns with tye cell value for each party and this is tge median share for each party:
Con 36 Lab 28 Ldem 13 Bxp 12 Grn 2
So not hugely different from their traditional poll
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2019 17:10:04 GMT
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