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Post by matureleft on Mar 12, 2024 12:10:16 GMT
Since the prospect of actually winning a seat with Reform will be negligible beyond really big personalities or something extraordinary any defections will be:
1. Those otherwise retiring who wish to kick their former party. I believe it's still the case that someone leaving parliament following defeat gets a loss-of-office payment so this is quite a suitable path for those with antipathy toward their party. 2. Those with an even larger than normal politician ego who believe that they have a substantial personal vote and who either want to kick their party or genuinely believe in Reform, or both. 3. Those stuck in seemingly hopeless seats who have either that antipathy or some bitterness at not being given a pass to somewhere safer.
So most of it depends on Tory parliamentary party morale. Alternative careers make a difference too. If someone has another role lined up their freedom to do as they please increases.
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Post by Yaffles on Mar 12, 2024 12:57:56 GMT
The number of actual defections is always a lot lower than both the number of likely candidates and the rumours. Except (I presume) the SDP in 1981-83. The foundation of the SDP, and the steady trickle of Labour MPs defecting to it over the next year or so, was one of the first political events I was properly aware of. I don’t know how many defectors were “expected” at the time. Were there some who thought that it would turn into hundreds, and collapse the Labour Party? Was it more than expected? Yes probably - bit before my time that one so I don't know what rumours there were. I suppose what is interesting is how many moderate Labour MPs stayed the course rather than defect, it must have been tempting given just how close the SDP came to overtaking Labour.
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batman
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Post by batman on Mar 12, 2024 12:58:31 GMT
The number of actual defections is always a lot lower than both the number of likely candidates and the rumours. Except (I presume) the SDP in 1981-83. The foundation of the SDP, and the steady trickle of Labour MPs defecting to it over the next year or so, was one of the first political events I was properly aware of. I don’t know how many defectors were “expected” at the time. Were there some who thought that it would turn into hundreds, and collapse the Labour Party? Was it more than expected? that's a really good question actually. It's not entirely straightforward to remember, but there were undoubtedly Labour MPs that the SDP wanted to attract but couldn't - e.g. John Gilbert and indeed quite a few others from the West Midlands. For whatever reason they didn't have much success in recruiting right-wing West Midlands Labour MPs; their greatest successes were in London where all 3 then Islington MPs joined (though one recanted later) and Liverpool where 3 of the city's MPs joined. On the other hand there were some that some didn't expect to jump but did, not least your namesake John Cartwright who was regarded as more of a loss to the Labour Party than most at the time. I'd say the number all told was not that different from what was expected, although the personnel wasn't exactly the same. I'd say if pushed that they perhaps got slightly less than they'd hoped, but not that many less.
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batman
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Post by batman on Mar 12, 2024 13:00:39 GMT
Of course they did attract one Tory MP, Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler in NW Norfolk, too, and probably hoped to get a few more, they must have been disappointed that he was the only one.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 12, 2024 13:43:19 GMT
Don Valley you mean. And his name is Nick Fletcher. The number of actual defections is always a lot lower than both the number of likely candidates and the rumours. But I suspect we will see one or two more, can you imagine a parliamentary party consisting of Anderson, Gullis, Jenkyns? Despite his battiness, Gullis does seem quite loyal to the Tories as an institution. Jenkyns may indeed be a better bet.
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Post by greatkingrat on Mar 12, 2024 13:53:37 GMT
Jenkyns is married to Jack Lopresti though, which would make a defection rather awkward, unless they both went.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 12, 2024 17:28:23 GMT
The Recall Act should be amended to include defections.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 12, 2024 17:42:04 GMT
The Recall Act should be amended to include defections. I really really don’t think it should
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 12, 2024 17:55:48 GMT
The Recall Act should be amended to include defections. I really really don’t think it should If the defection was done for personal reasons, not because the Party was merged into another, or disbanded, then I think the voters have a right to re-evaluate whether they still support that MP.
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iang
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Post by iang on Mar 12, 2024 17:59:07 GMT
Of course they did attract one Tory MP, Christopher Brocklebank-Fowler in NW Norfolk, too, and probably hoped to get a few more, they must have been disappointed that he was the only one. Yes, there was a lot of speculation about Tory defectors, particularly Sir Ian Gilmour, whose son was involved in the SDP I believe, and some other high profile wets, but it didn't come to anything except for CBF
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graham
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Post by graham on Mar 12, 2024 18:01:14 GMT
I really really don’t think it should If the defection was done for personal reasons, not because the Party was merged into another, or disbanded, then I think the voters have a right to re-evaluate whether they still support that MP. But what about when a party forces an MP to sit as an Independent by withdrawing the Whip?
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carolus
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Post by carolus on Mar 12, 2024 18:11:36 GMT
I really really don’t think it should If the defection was done for personal reasons, not because the Party was merged into another, or disbanded, then I think the voters have a right to re-evaluate whether they still support that MP. You cast your vote and you take your chances.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 12, 2024 18:25:30 GMT
If the defection was done for personal reasons, not because the Party was merged into another, or disbanded, then I think the voters have a right to re-evaluate whether they still support that MP. But what about when a party forces an MP to sit as an Independent by withdrawing the Whip? This is the problem with writing good law!
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Post by stb12 on Mar 12, 2024 18:52:48 GMT
I really really don’t think it should If the defection was done for personal reasons, not because the Party was merged into another, or disbanded, then I think the voters have a right to re-evaluate whether they still support that MP. I dislike the idea because it would further entrench the power of political party machines. However much personal vote may be limited it’s still an individual on the ballot paper and they have to be able to act as their conscience tells them they should, including defecting to another party. Then the voters can get their say on that in the next scheduled election which is never that far away If you go far enough you’d be as well creating some sort of party list system where the party can just replace an MP with someone else if they think the person is falling too far out of line
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Post by gwynthegriff on Mar 12, 2024 18:53:19 GMT
But what about when a party forces an MP to sit as an Independent by withdrawing the Whip? This is the problem with writing good law! The principle is noble, the practicalities rather tricky.
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peterl
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Post by peterl on Mar 12, 2024 19:06:17 GMT
One solution would be to open the door to recall only if an MP joins a different party, not if they become an independent.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 12, 2024 19:31:50 GMT
One solution would be to open the door to recall only if an MP joins a different party, not if they become an independent. One solution would be to scrap the recall system completely and recognise that MPs already have an individual mandate.
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Post by johnloony on Mar 12, 2024 19:43:22 GMT
If the defection was done for personal reasons, not because the Party was merged into another, or disbanded, then I think the voters have a right to re-evaluate whether they still support that MP. But what about when a party forces an MP to sit as an Independent by withdrawing the Whip? Obviously not.
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Mar 12, 2024 20:31:29 GMT
One solution would be to open the door to recall only if an MP joins a different party, not if they become an independent. One solution would be to scrap the recall system completely and recognise that MPs already have an individual mandate. Recall is part of our constitution now, you couldn't get rid very easily.
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Post by Yaffles on Mar 12, 2024 20:48:40 GMT
One solution would be to scrap the recall system completely and recognise that MPs already have an individual mandate. Recall is part of our constitution now, you couldn't get rid very easily. I actually think it’s one of the better recent reforms. MPs should be held to a standard and voters should have an option to get rid if they fall short.
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