mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Nov 1, 2019 0:20:07 GMT
Carpetbagging? Can you name me a single defector to the LDs who has moved to a safe LD seat? Off the top of my head I'm struggling to think of even one who has moved to a seat where we were as high as second in 2017. In fact the closest I can think of to an easy ride are Wollaston and, if she'd stayed, Allen, both of whom might be considered to be in naturally strong LD areas in their existing seats (even then it's a bit of a stretch.) Berger, Gyimah, Lee, Smith and Umunna have all carpetbagged from their current constituencies to more winnable ones. Berger and Smith are particularly egregious. Berger's primary reason for fleeing was to escape the constant threats of violence against her. When you're a mother of 2 young kids, that ought to be enough in anyone's book.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 1, 2019 1:04:15 GMT
Smith has gone to a seat that fits the most likely demographic to elect her under new colours. Northern, bourgeois, Remainy, decent pool of voters that don't like the Tories but don't like socialism either.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 1, 2019 1:19:16 GMT
Smith has gone to a seat that fits the most likely demographic to elect her under new colours. Northern, bourgeois, Remainy, decent pool of voters that don't like the Tories but don't like socialism either. Smith's move looks the most like a carpet-bag but (a)apparently we were feeling more optimistic about Penistone when we factored in her personal vote there than we do about Altrincham sans Brophy and (b)we had already picked a candidate by the time of Smith's defection, which may have had something to do with the awkward shift.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 1, 2019 1:20:56 GMT
Smith has gone to a seat that fits the most likely demographic to elect her under new colours. Northern, bourgeois, Remainy, decent pool of voters that don't like the Tories but don't like socialism either. Smith's move looks the most like a carpet-bag but (a)apparently we were feeling more optimistic about Penistone when we factored in her personal vote there than we do about Altrincham sans Brophy and (b)we had already picked a candidate by the time of Smith's defection, which may have had something to do with the awkward shift. That it is Alty is the most obvious carpet bag. There's a reason she isn't fighting neighbouring Wythenshawe & Sale East as a Lib Dem, for example.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 1, 2019 1:24:54 GMT
Smith's move looks the most like a carpet-bag but (a)apparently we were feeling more optimistic about Penistone when we factored in her personal vote there than we do about Altrincham sans Brophy and (b)we had already picked a candidate by the time of Smith's defection, which may have had something to do with the awkward shift. That it is Alty is the most obvious carpet bag. There's a reason she isn't fighting neighbouring Wythenshawe & Sale East as a Lib Dem, for example. I agree on that part, but entertaining the possibility that her own constituency was not on offer, I wouldn't blame her for picking the more favourable of the options left.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 1, 2019 1:37:58 GMT
Carpetbagging? Can you name me a single defector to the LDs who has moved to a safe LD seat? Off the top of my head I'm struggling to think of even one who has moved to a seat where we were as high as second in 2017. In fact the closest I can think of to an easy ride are Wollaston and, if she'd stayed, Allen, both of whom might be considered to be in naturally strong LD areas in their existing seats (even then it's a bit of a stretch.) Berger, Gyimah, Lee, Smith and Umunna have all carpetbagged from their current constituencies to more winnable ones. Berger and Smith are particularly egregious. So: to answer my question for you: none. The "especially egregious" Berger will have to come from 3rd place and a vote share of 6.6% to win, in doing so overtaking an incumbent with 47% of the vote. The equally egregious Angela Smith will have to come from 3rd place and a 7.7% vote share to overcome an incumbent with a vote share of 51% Talk about having it handed to you on a silver plate! The idle cows! Philip Lee will have to come from 3rd and defeat an incumbent who has rarely got less than 50% of the vote. The Labour Party's official organ The Guardian has stated it as official (based on, um, Labour Party statements) that Umunna and Gyimah have no chance. I thought I was upbeat but I'm glad to see that I'm apparently quite sober.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 1, 2019 6:33:12 GMT
Respect to her for not carpetbagging like many of the others. She could have moved to Putney for instance. That's a seat the LDs could do well in with a higher profile candidate.
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Merseymike
Independent
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 1, 2019 8:02:49 GMT
Berger, Gyimah, Lee, Smith and Umunna have all carpetbagged from their current constituencies to more winnable ones. Berger and Smith are particularly egregious. Berger's primary reason for fleeing was to escape the constant threats of violence against her. When you're a mother of 2 young kids, that ought to be enough in anyone's book. Given it was internet based moving will make no difference. She wouldn't have won Wavertree and she has never been popular in the city. However she is now standing for her home constituency. She represents a very hardline form of political Zionism and her new seat is probably the most receptive to that stance in the whole of the country so its perfectly logical that she stands there. The Tories aren't too happy, though.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 1, 2019 8:05:23 GMT
Err...have you read it lately?
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 1, 2019 8:09:01 GMT
Berger's primary reason for fleeing was to escape the constant threats of violence against her. When you're a mother of 2 young kids, that ought to be enough in anyone's book. Given it was internet based moving will make no difference. She wouldn't have won Wavertree and she has never been popular in the city. However she is now standing for her home constituencyWtf? This is a new low. Best consider the implications for Labour's many BAME candidates and Johnson's 'ancestral dislike' Obama comment, and then delete the post.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 1, 2019 8:09:12 GMT
Err...have you read it lately? We've had two tactical voting websites drawn to our attention so far and they both appear to be less than optimal.
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Post by froome on Nov 1, 2019 8:09:41 GMT
Err...have you read it lately? I read it every day and Adam's description is close to the mark.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 1, 2019 8:43:19 GMT
Given it was internet based moving will make no difference. She wouldn't have won Wavertree and she has never been popular in the city. However she is now standing for her home constituencyWtf? This is a new low. Best consider the implications for Labour's many BAME candidates and Johnson's 'ancestral dislike' Obama comment, and then delete the post. What are you talking about? She LIVES in F&GG and has done at least since her marriage. What IS the problem with her choosing to stand there?
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 1, 2019 8:45:10 GMT
Err...have you read it lately? I read it every day and Adam's description is close to the mark. A couple of their regular writers are sympathetic to Labour However, the paper overall would be far more enthusiastically so if say, Keir Starmer or another person nearer the political centre was leader. Martin Kettle, or Jonathan Freedland, for example, could hardly be seen as pro-Labour voices
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middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
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Post by middyman on Nov 1, 2019 8:46:27 GMT
Err...have you read it lately? Morning Star then?
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Nov 1, 2019 8:46:35 GMT
Given it was internet based moving will make no difference. She wouldn't have won Wavertree and she has never been popular in the city. However she is now standing for her home constituencyWtf? This is a new low. Best consider the implications for Labour's many BAME candidates and Johnson's 'ancestral dislike' Obama comment, and then delete the post. I believe it is her home constituency. It’s where her London home is and where her family lives. Which also makes her move probably the least egregious!
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 1, 2019 8:49:13 GMT
Err...have you read it lately? Morning Star then? They are closer to you on Brexit!
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 1, 2019 8:49:41 GMT
Err...have you read it lately? If you look at the https for that link you'll see that the original headline was: I read the article and it reported the Best for Britain report as credible research from a presumably reputable agency. The Guardian then replaced the article with the one in the link, with the new headline: Best for Britain suddenly become peddlers of bogus advice. And what's the evidence? Direct quotes from The two examples cited are CLW and Kensington, both cases where anyone on here would recognise that the LDs overtaking Labour is at least feasible, but which is rubbished on the basis of the 2017 GE result i.e. a baseline where Labour was polling 10% more than it is today and the LDs were polling >10% less. Where does the Guardian think that 20% Lab-LD swing is happening? Stoke? It is fucking obvious to anyone that the Guardian pulled its original report and replaced it with an article based on a Labour Party quote and did so because it was leant on by Labour. The Graun does occasionally do proper reporting (unlike the Mail, Sun, Express or Torygraph who long ago gave up pretending to be anything other than factions of the Tory party) but in this case it didn't. The Graun may not look like a Labour paper to you Mike but that's only because you don't think half the Labour Party support the Labour Party.
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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 1, 2019 8:55:31 GMT
Wtf? This is a new low. Best consider the implications for Labour's many BAME candidates and Johnson's 'ancestral dislike' Obama comment, and then delete the post. What are you talking about? She LIVES in F&GG and has done at least since her marriage. What IS the problem with her choosing to stand there? Hat eaten. Sorry. I still think this will have little to do with Zionism, unless another candidate pulls out all the stops in trying to make it so.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 1, 2019 9:35:35 GMT
What are you talking about? She LIVES in F&GG and has done at least since her marriage. What IS the problem with her choosing to stand there? Hat eaten. Sorry. I still think this will have little to do with Zionism, unless another candidate pulls out all the stops in trying to make it so. Mike Freer the Tory candidate is very worried that she will eat into his vote. If Labour were honest they would admit that few of that community have any intention of voting Labour.
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