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Post by curiousliberal on Nov 14, 2019 18:27:32 GMT
You haven't forgone it, though. You've just embraced expansionary economic policy. Where's the new revenue generation? It's not coming from the tax cuts for high earners, one of the first pledges he made. He doesn't subscribe to modern monetary theory, so it's got to come from somewhere. At the moment, it looks like he just plans to run up a deficit in the sunnier part of the economic cycle, which we should know by now is a terrible idea. I doubt he'll fulfill half of these spending pledges. If he does, expect them all to be reversed - and worse - when recession hits. There will be no stimulus package built up for that time. I expect taxes to rise and for us to start to end the ludicrous .7% foreign aid budget if we win a majority. The grassroots of the party are less economically liberal than those MP's who've left and we're the ones in the driving seat now. The grassroots are not in the driving seat given the way leadership elections, and the Tory party in general, works. The reason a populist was chosen was not due to any love for the guy's platform, but because he's the only way conservatism can be credibly sold at the moment to a majority of people. The current Cabinet seems to be more rightwing than the last, and Gauke, Rudd, Benyon etc were probably closer to the economic centre than most of the ERG (who do not support a protectionist hard Brexit, but Singapore-on-Thames). The donor class will reject tax rises (and have been explicitly promised a tax cut), as they successfully have where Johnson's kind have ascended elsewhere. He may in turn reject them, but right now I doubt it (and it will be to his credit if he proves me wrong, because I've seen no sign of him attempting to do so as of yet). Foreign aid could be cut, though. I'll give you that, but it won't fund all of the expenses.
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 18:49:29 GMT
Post by Forfarshire Conservative on Nov 14, 2019 18:49:29 GMT
I expect taxes to rise and for us to start to end the ludicrous .7% foreign aid budget if we win a majority. The grassroots of the party are less economically liberal than those MP's who've left and we're the ones in the driving seat now. The grassroots are not in the driving seat given the way leadership elections, and the Tory party in general, works. The reason a populist was chosen was not due to any love for the guy's platform, but because he's the only way conservatism can be credibly sold at the moment to a majority of people. The current Cabinet seems to be more rightwing than the last, and Gauke, Rudd, Benyon etc were probably closer to the economic centre than most of the ERG (who do not support a protectionist hard Brexit, but Singapore-on-Thames). The donor class will reject tax rises (and have been explicitly promised a tax cut), as they successfully have where Johnson's kind have ascended elsewhere. He may in turn reject them, but right now I doubt it (and it will be to his credit if he proves me wrong, because I've seen no sign of him attempting to do so as of yet). Foreign aid could be cut, though. I'll give you that, but it won't fund all of the expenses. Cleverly was chosen because he would've been the overwhelming choice of the members. The campaign for Conservative Democracy is gathering steam for internal reform too. The members have more and more influence in the party. I also, if you'll forgive the tone, think you're misunderstanding fundamentally what the upcoming voter shift means. I think it's inevitable that we as conservatives change our economic outlook in order to appeal to working class areas and to address chronic underinvestment in infrastructure, something Boris is passionate about. This will happen regardless of what donors think because party survival come first, as it always has. Also, in terms of the donors, that is increasingly just used as a term of abuse, which is why two of the most left posters liked it. The party isn't controlled by donors, as our acceptance of Brexit has shown. If we really cared about placating plutocrats we'd be the revoke people, but we're not, you are.
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 19:58:00 GMT
Post by London Lad on Nov 14, 2019 19:58:00 GMT
Not sure how it makes the results any better for Labour even if you explain it away by Pensioners being included as working class. When I was growing up, Labour were a very popular choice for Pensioners to vote for. Why have they lost that demographic? You could also ask why the Conservatives have lost out amongst younger professionals, which is a bit of a departure from the 1980s. Note for example that my mother got a mortgage for a house in Birmingham Selly Oak as a newly qualified nurse in the early 1980s when she was about 24, and that wasn't considered particularly unusual. It's hard to imagine many people in that position being able to do so now. But the discussion is about Labour and why they no longer seem to be the natural home of the Working Class. If you want to get into a discussion about the Tories and their failure to continue the Thatcherite property owning democracy ideals that swept them to power in the 80's then I'm game, but that is a different subject.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 14, 2019 20:07:44 GMT
You could also ask why the Conservatives have lost out amongst younger professionals, which is a bit of a departure from the 1980s. Note for example that my mother got a mortgage for a house in Birmingham Selly Oak as a newly qualified nurse in the early 1980s when she was about 24, and that wasn't considered particularly unusual. It's hard to imagine many people in that position being able to do so now. But the discussion is about Labour and why they no longer seem to be the natural home of the Working Class. If you want to get into a discussion about the Tories and their failure to continue the Thatcherite property owning democracy ideals that swept them to power in the 80's then I'm game, but that is a different subject. But its patently not the case. The seat I live in is predominantly working class. I predict it will return a Labour MP with a large majority. Are we also assuming that being working class also equals being white?
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 20:20:21 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Nov 14, 2019 20:20:21 GMT
You could also ask why the Conservatives have lost out amongst younger professionals, which is a bit of a departure from the 1980s. Note for example that my mother got a mortgage for a house in Birmingham Selly Oak as a newly qualified nurse in the early 1980s when she was about 24, and that wasn't considered particularly unusual. It's hard to imagine many people in that position being able to do so now. But the discussion is about Labour and why they no longer seem to be the natural home of the Working Class. Which can't be answered without a discussion of what the Working Class actually is in 21st Century Britain. The old cultural distinctions between middle class and working class are no-longer clear-cut (especially in younger generations), and many occupations have arguably changed from one class into the other (in both directions). And Benjamin's point is very much related to that discussion.
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Deleted
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 20:25:22 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2019 20:25:22 GMT
Interesting to see a swing to Labour amongst ABC1
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2019 20:28:48 GMT
You could also ask why the Conservatives have lost out amongst younger professionals, which is a bit of a departure from the 1980s. Note for example that my mother got a mortgage for a house in Birmingham Selly Oak as a newly qualified nurse in the early 1980s when she was about 24, and that wasn't considered particularly unusual. It's hard to imagine many people in that position being able to do so now. But the discussion is about Labour and why they no longer seem to be the natural home of the Working Class. If you want to get into a discussion about the Tories and their failure to continue the Thatcherite property owning democracy ideals that swept them to power in the 80's then I'm game, but that is a different subject. It's not really a different subject though. You were talking about pensioners being less inclined to vote Labour than in a previous era. In 1996, 63% of households led by someone aged over 65 were owner occupiers, compared to 54% of households led by someone aged 16-34. By 2016, the figures were 77% and 34% respectively. The age gap in property ownership has widened considerably during the past two decades. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7706/CBP-7706.pdf
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 20:34:26 GMT
Post by Adam in Stroud on Nov 14, 2019 20:34:26 GMT
Interesting to see a swing to Labour amongst ABC1 Lib Dems switching tactically?
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Deleted
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Nov 14, 2019 20:37:13 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2019 20:37:13 GMT
Interesting to see a swing to Labour amongst ABC1 Lib Dems switching tactically? I think more 2017 Tories are voting for Lib Dems than 2017 Labour voting Lib Dems so notional swing
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 14, 2019 20:51:41 GMT
Lib Dems switching tactically? I think more 2017 Tories are voting for Lib Dems than 2017 Labour voting Lib Dems so notional swing Where do you get that from?
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Deleted
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 20:53:44 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2019 20:53:44 GMT
I think more 2017 Tories are voting for Lib Dems than 2017 Labour voting Lib Dems so notional swing Where do you get that from? the sun website has the scores from 2017 amongst ABC1 and C2DE compared with the scores today
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 22:18:21 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Nov 14, 2019 22:18:21 GMT
Presumably this is using the now pretty discredited ABC1C2DE categorisations - when the "working class" ranks are stuffed with well off pensioners? The..... "...now pretty discredited..." Which means it served us once but now provides the wrong sort of answer so must be deeply flawed. Been flawed by about 20 years when they discovered the Working Class were a bunch of racist xenophobic bastards
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 22:59:24 GMT
Post by London Lad on Nov 14, 2019 22:59:24 GMT
But the discussion is about Labour and why they no longer seem to be the natural home of the Working Class. If you want to get into a discussion about the Tories and their failure to continue the Thatcherite property owning democracy ideals that swept them to power in the 80's then I'm game, but that is a different subject. It's not really a different subject though. You were talking about pensioners being less inclined to vote Labour than in a previous era. In 1996, 63% of households led by someone aged over 65 were owner occupiers, compared to 54% of households led by someone aged 16-34. By 2016, the figures were 77% and 34% respectively. The age gap in property ownership has widened considerably during the past two decades. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7706/CBP-7706.pdfWell I was basing my comments somewhat further back than 1996. I had in mind the 70's & 80's where the working class didnt suddenly stop supporting Labour when they got to 65 and drew a pension. I can see why WC property owners may be inclined to abandon Labour but the numbers for those is falling and has been since the late 90's - so I dont really see how that would explain the recent fall in support for Labour from the WC
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YouGov
Nov 14, 2019 23:18:59 GMT
Post by curiousliberal on Nov 14, 2019 23:18:59 GMT
It's not really a different subject though. You were talking about pensioners being less inclined to vote Labour than in a previous era. In 1996, 63% of households led by someone aged over 65 were owner occupiers, compared to 54% of households led by someone aged 16-34. By 2016, the figures were 77% and 34% respectively. The age gap in property ownership has widened considerably during the past two decades. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7706/CBP-7706.pdfWell I was basing my comments somewhat further back than 1996. I had in mind the 70's & 80's where the working class didnt suddenly stop supporting Labour when they got to 65 and drew a pension. I can see why WC property owners may be inclined to abandon Labour but the numbers for those is falling and has been since the late 90's - so I dont really see how that would explain the recent fall in support for Labour from the WC Owner-occupiers are an ageing group. A lot of this has to do with Right to Buy.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2019 23:31:20 GMT
It's not really a different subject though. You were talking about pensioners being less inclined to vote Labour than in a previous era. In 1996, 63% of households led by someone aged over 65 were owner occupiers, compared to 54% of households led by someone aged 16-34. By 2016, the figures were 77% and 34% respectively. The age gap in property ownership has widened considerably during the past two decades. researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7706/CBP-7706.pdfWell I was basing my comments somewhat further back than 1996. I had in mind the 70's & 80's where the working class didnt suddenly stop supporting Labour when they got to 65 and drew a pension. I can see why WC property owners may be inclined to abandon Labour but the numbers for those is falling and has been since the late 90's - so I dont really see how that would explain the recent fall in support for Labour from the WC As I say, the proportion of people aged over 65 who are owner occupiers has increased since the late 1990s, even if the overall rate of owner occupancy has decreased in the general population. In one sense, why should a demographic in which nearly 80% of people are owner occupiers not be strongly favourable to the traditional party of property? It would be much more of a surprise if it wasn't. Property ownership patterns have changed hugely since the 1970s. By contrast, despite what you say about 'the working class', I've not seen much evidence that younger low-income renters are shifting to the Conservatives in significant numbers, and there are proportionately rather more renters amongst the young today than there were two decades ago.
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YouGov
Nov 16, 2019 20:58:18 GMT
Post by andrewp on Nov 16, 2019 20:58:18 GMT
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Vibe
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Post by Vibe on Nov 16, 2019 21:02:27 GMT
5 or 6 polls today and it does look good for Boris. A continued squeeze for the LD's.
Which is correct??? Nobody knows.
On this poll, hopefully SNP are down 3. 🤣
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YouGov
Nov 17, 2019 1:23:37 GMT
Post by lancastrian on Nov 17, 2019 1:23:37 GMT
YouGov's poll for the Sunday Times published three and a half weeks before the 2017 election had a Tory lead of 18.
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The Bishop
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YouGov
Nov 17, 2019 11:48:37 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Nov 17, 2019 11:48:37 GMT
Tories up 3, no net change in all other parties. Sounds totally legit
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Jack
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YouGov
Nov 17, 2019 15:59:23 GMT
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Post by Jack on Nov 17, 2019 15:59:23 GMT
I've already been asked three times which candidate I'm voting for in my constituency, so I assume YouGov's MRP poll will be out soon.
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