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Post by afleitch on May 31, 2019 11:48:22 GMT
Wow, that's some seriously good memory of Bish's posts I just think it's possible some shift could happen because Labour, again, don't know who their base is. The 'muh C2DE's in leave seats' Labour voters are, on the whole, prioritisers of reducing inequality, dealing with homes, jobs, services. They aren't sovereignty or immigration focused (YouGov Oct 2018) and the Left wing 'Lexit' Brexiteers are the most likely to change their minds on Brexit. They aren't going to run away from Labour. Aging towns and communities will, but that's because there's a long term divide that Brexit is a symptom of, not the cause. Those who will abandon Labour are their Remainers; the very people that shocked us in 2017 but who Corbyn has convinced himself were won over by him alone. They are also engaged, active and vocal. Why be loyal if you get sh@t on because Labour is worried about mythologised leavers in Rotherham?
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 11,565
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 12:04:01 GMT
Post by Khunanup on May 31, 2019 12:04:01 GMT
It's just about how I could see the Labour & Tory vote collapsing if an election was called tomorrow. With a campaign it'd be very different. Perhaps one of the Southampton or Reading seats with a campaign could be under 20%. Yeah you've got to be looking at somewhere where Lib Dem support is actually below average, Labour and Tory support about average and with at least some Green potential - those would be a good bet I've just realised, I should have said held tomorrow not called tomorrow in my reply above. Thinking about other possibilities with a campaign, places like Gloucester, Worcester, Lincoln & thinking about it, Hastings and Rye would be highly entertaining, especially with the Rother part results on the 2nd May.
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Post by ccoleman on May 31, 2019 13:27:29 GMT
Farage complaining about the methodology That is a legitimate criticism though. Pollsters really should be prompting for the Brexit Party now especially seen as they just came top in the European elections. They were prompted in their EU polls and were overestimated, which is why they weren’t prompted this time. A new party rising quickly is understandably going to cause a few headaches for pollsters. Let’s be honest though - Farage and his cult-like following will dismiss any poll that doesn’t show the Brexit Party running away with things. That’s populism in a nutshell.
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 13:39:33 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 31, 2019 13:39:33 GMT
That is a legitimate criticism though. Pollsters really should be prompting for the Brexit Party now especially seen as they just came top in the European elections. They were prompted in their EU polls and were overestimated, which is why they weren’t prompted this time. A new party rising quickly is understandably going to cause a few headaches for pollsters. Let’s be honest though - Farage and his cult-like following will dismiss any poll that doesn’t show the Brexit Party running away with things. That’s populism in a nutshell. No. That is just practical politics as expressed by most of us on here from time to time. And he had a good point in that they are a major player and yet not being recorded or prompted which is a deliberate policy virtually certain to depress their figures. Why do that if one wants accuracy or a closer accuracy?
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Post by ccoleman on May 31, 2019 13:55:53 GMT
They were prompted in their EU polls and were overestimated, which is why they weren’t prompted this time. A new party rising quickly is understandably going to cause a few headaches for pollsters. Let’s be honest though - Farage and his cult-like following will dismiss any poll that doesn’t show the Brexit Party running away with things. That’s populism in a nutshell. No. That is just practical politics as expressed by most of us on here from time to time. And he had a good point in that they are a major player and yet not being recorded or prompted which is a deliberate policy virtually certain to depress their figures. Why do that if one wants accuracy or a closer accuracy? If prompting them overestimates their support then it is clearly not accurate. Instead of jumping straight into tinfoil hat mode by accusing YouGov of some grand establishment plot, it’d probably be better to realise that all pollsters will struggle to correctly weigh for BXP. If a new poll comes out showing a BXP lead then you’d better keep that in mind as well.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 14:27:46 GMT
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Post by Vibe on May 31, 2019 14:27:46 GMT
That is a legitimate criticism though. Pollsters really should be prompting for the Brexit Party now especially seen as they just came top in the European elections. They were prompted in their EU polls and were overestimated, which is why they weren’t prompted this time. A new party rising quickly is understandably going to cause a few headaches for pollsters. Let’s be honest though - Farage and his cult-like following will dismiss any poll that doesn’t show the Brexit Party running away with things. That’s populism in a nutshell. They prompted for the LD's and underestimated, so prompting may not be the problem here. They overestimated Conservatives, so using your logic we don't for them either. The polling companies need to work out why they keep getting elections wrong and why do different pollsters come up with vastly different results ISTM that they are clueless and one company by chance will be close to each result. If 10 of us here guessed a 2nd referendum result, one of us would get close.
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on May 31, 2019 14:31:43 GMT
The GE will be fought under FPTP, that will focus the mind approaching the election.Dead easy to vote for other parties in a meaningless election with PR. A GE is a real election, running the country, affecting people's real lives. Maybe, but if both the Lib Dems and Brexit are in a position to win a large number of seats in the FPTP system going into the GE campaign, then there's a good chance that people will stick with them - whereas they'll probably not retain those voters if they're not in a position to win seats.
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Vibe
Non-Aligned
Posts: 931
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 14:45:43 GMT
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Post by Vibe on May 31, 2019 14:45:43 GMT
The GE will be fought under FPTP, that will focus the mind approaching the election.Dead easy to vote for other parties in a meaningless election with PR. A GE is a real election, running the country, affecting people's real lives. Maybe, but if both the Lib Dems and Brexit are in a position to win a large number of seats in the FPTP system going into the GE campaign, then there's a good chance that people will stick with them - whereas they'll probably not retain those voters if they're not in a position to win seats. You can just see the message from say the Conservatives "Vote BP get Labour". Under FPTP, people vote to try and stop their worst option winning. A bit like Game Theory. FPTP always favours the incumbent established parties. And people would vote accordingly faced with an election. It is easy to say they wouldn't in a poll, but a decent percentage would. Enough to make polls this far out from an election, sketchy.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 15:17:43 GMT
Post by Deleted on May 31, 2019 15:17:43 GMT
Maybe, but if both the Lib Dems and Brexit are in a position to win a large number of seats in the FPTP system going into the GE campaign, then there's a good chance that people will stick with them - whereas they'll probably not retain those voters if they're not in a position to win seats. You can just see the message from say the Conservatives "Vote BP get Labour". Under FPTP, people vote to try and stop their worst option winning. A bit like Game Theory. FPTP always favours the incumbent established parties. And people would vote accordingly faced with an election. It is easy to say they wouldn't in a poll, but a decent percentage would. Enough to make polls this far out from an election, sketchy. Not to mention that general elections are fought on a wider range of issues. The Lib Dems and Brexit party don't really have much to say on anything but Brexit.
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 15:37:19 GMT
Post by carlton43 on May 31, 2019 15:37:19 GMT
No. That is just practical politics as expressed by most of us on here from time to time. And he had a good point in that they are a major player and yet not being recorded or prompted which is a deliberate policy virtually certain to depress their figures. Why do that if one wants accuracy or a closer accuracy? If prompting them overestimates their support then it is clearly not accurate. Instead of jumping straight into tinfoil hat mode by accusing YouGov of some grand establishment plot, it’d probably be better to realise that all pollsters will struggle to correctly weigh for BXP. If a new poll comes out showing a BXP lead then you’d better keep that in mind as well. The pollster prompted for the major parties but made no reference to the BP which was in Others. In the present circumstances that is an absurd approach and it will have an effect. I am just making that observation in the interests of polling accuracy for what is a very new party. There is no call for abuse and reference to tin foil hats. I am a Conservative and we are under the cosh here. But as a psephologist I want to see what the fully prompted responses are for all the parties likely to be in the top 4. The BP is one of those 4 and should have been prompted for like the other parties were.
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Post by woollyliberal on May 31, 2019 15:51:01 GMT
OK then, you win. The next GE will see a LibDem government and Brexit Party opposition - or will it be the other way round? Carry on If the polls are right, it will be a Corbyn/Farage coalition
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 15:52:49 GMT
Post by froome on May 31, 2019 15:52:49 GMT
Yeah you've got to be looking at somewhere where Lib Dem support is actually below average, Labour and Tory support about average and with at least some Green potential - those would be a good bet I've just realised, I should have said held tomorrow not called tomorrow in my reply above. Thinking about other possibilities with a campaign, places like Gloucester, Worcester, Lincoln & thinking about it, Hastings and Rye would be highly entertaining, especially with the Rother part results on the 2nd May. I think Worcester would fit the bill nicely. Above average Green potential but not an area where the Lib Dems have challenged much, usually a decent Labour vote and Conservatives probably around average. Maybe time for Worcester woman?
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,165
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 16:28:53 GMT
Post by polupolu on May 31, 2019 16:28:53 GMT
Maybe, but if both the Lib Dems and Brexit are in a position to win a large number of seats in the FPTP system going into the GE campaign, then there's a good chance that people will stick with them - whereas they'll probably not retain those voters if they're not in a position to win seats. You can just see the message from say the Conservatives "Vote BP get Labour". Under FPTP, people vote to try and stop their worst option winning. A bit like Game Theory. FPTP always favours the incumbent established parties. And people would vote accordingly faced with an election. It is easy to say they wouldn't in a poll, but a decent percentage would. Enough to make polls this far out from an election, sketchy. The point about FPTP is certainly historically true (though there is also the "a plague on both your houses" element too). However we live in such febrile times that I frankly don't know how much history can help us here. As ever, Farage is very good at making publicity for himself from practically anything (when was the last time the news talked about pollster's methodologies?). We really shouldn't understimate him. The Conservatives who lent him their vote in the Euros may come to regret it if he eats away at their support amongst the wider public. For the first time in a long time, generally uninterested and vaguely Tory voters have another choice. Come the next G.E. and Farage's party may reverse the usual mantra with something like: "Vote Brexit, get Brexit. Vote Tory get Corbyn"
One further point on FPTP. Political fortunes can change very suddenly. Canada has been mentioned in another post and that is very instructive on what can happen in FPTP elections.
Finally, it will be interesting to see if YouGov change their methodology in response to Farage's criticism.
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polupolu
Lib Dem
Liberal (Democrat). Socially Liberal, Economically Keynesian.
Posts: 1,165
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Post by polupolu on May 31, 2019 16:51:57 GMT
You can just see the message from say the Conservatives "Vote BP get Labour". Under FPTP, people vote to try and stop their worst option winning. A bit like Game Theory. FPTP always favours the incumbent established parties. And people would vote accordingly faced with an election. It is easy to say they wouldn't in a poll, but a decent percentage would. Enough to make polls this far out from an election, sketchy. Not to mention that general elections are fought on a wider range of issues. The Lib Dems and Brexit party don't really have much to say on anything but Brexit. I suspect that large numbers of voters decide their votes by having a vague idea of the general drift of a party's policies and the party's general competence.
In my experience, reams of policy don't help a great deal in elections (the old Liberals had policies coming out of our ears; but nobody cared and no-one knew what we stood for on almost every issue). As someone interested in policy, I regret to say that a simple, clear message, that voters understand and find attractive, probably decides general elections more often than having a lot to say about a lot of issues. Having said which, an egregiously unpopular policy can lose an awful lot of votes (e.g. May's "dementia tax", which was massively unpoopular, even if it may have had its merits)
On the other point: when a party loses the reputation for competence, it has a very uphill struggle to regain it (as the Tories have already witnessed post-Major and pre-Cameron). The Tories will have a a tough time reasserting any claim to competence, whoever they choose as the next Prime Minister, given the last few years. Combine that with a general public perception that Corbyn would be no better as PM than May (according to the latest polling) and the next few weeks, months and years will be very unpredicatble.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 17:13:54 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2019 17:13:54 GMT
yes last six polls straight Perhaps they can't tell the difference. I'm having difficulty with that. stones and glass houses...
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 17:14:27 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2019 17:14:27 GMT
so you're good with Brexit Party winning as long as you come 2nd? Oh for God's sake. I am making an observation, on a psephological website, about the state of British politics at the moment, which is that the traditional two parties are in deep trouble; and that it will take more than a narrow win by Labour (or less plausibly, the Tories) over either BxP or LDs to reverse that. If we must look at this form a partisan angle, then frankly I quite fancy our chances in Peterborough standing as the anti-Farage candidate because Labour's response is so pathetic. Given that Peterborough is about 360th on our list of target seats 2nd place would be pretty good going. did i touch a nerve
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2019 17:14:53 GMT
OK then, you win. The next GE will see a LibDem government and Brexit Party opposition - or will it be the other way round? Carry on If the polls are right, it will be a Corbyn/Farage coalition yeah you're funny
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 17:18:35 GMT
Post by Izzyeviel on May 31, 2019 17:18:35 GMT
I can see it actually. Prime Minister Jezza & DPM Sir Nige, Owen Jones writing how great Sir Nige is in the Guardian.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
May 31, 2019 17:19:22 GMT
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Post by Deleted on May 31, 2019 17:19:22 GMT
I can see it actually. Prime Minister Jezza & DPM Sir Nige, Owen Jones writing how great Sir Nige is in the Guardian. dont be ridiculous
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Izzyeviel
Lib Dem
I stayed up for Hartlepools
Posts: 3,279
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Post by Izzyeviel on May 31, 2019 17:21:55 GMT
I can see it actually. Prime Minister Jezza & DPM Sir Nige, Owen Jones writing how great Sir Nige is in the Guardian. dont be ridiculous Not really. We all know Jez would love a Lexit.
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