middyman
Conservative
"The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people's money."
Posts: 8,050
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 8:23:01 GMT
Post by middyman on Jun 11, 2018 8:23:01 GMT
What about retired people who aren’t yet pensioners? So the Queen and Prince Philip are recorded in socio-economic group E. That makes a lot of sense. Sociologists at their best. I wonder if they do queue up at the Post Office on a Thursday morning to draw their OAP.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 8:29:06 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2018 8:29:06 GMT
"Britain Elects @britainelects Greens overtake UKIP in our poll tracker for the first time: CON: 41.7% LAB: 39.4% LDEM: 7.8% GRN: 3.1% UKIP: 2.9% See more: britainelects.com/polling/westminster/ …" May-June-July 2017 a dramatic rise in the Labour graph. What do we attribute that to now after mature reflection? Was it site and time specific? If so why? And why has it unwound again? Why such a massive move so quickly?
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 8:49:32 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Jun 11, 2018 8:49:32 GMT
What about retired people who aren’t yet pensioners? So the Queen and Prince Philip are recorded in socio-economic group E. That makes a lot of sense. Sociologists at their best.We do not use that system, I like this system in parts 1. Elite ( Queens, Dukes , Lizards) 2. Established Middle Class 3. Technical Middle Class ( Geeks ) 4. New Affluent Workers ( Major swing vote group I believe) 5. Traditional Working Class 6. Emergent service Workers ( ) 7. Precariat, or precarious proletariat ( Lumpen) eprints.lse.ac.uk/49654/1/Savage_New_model_social_class_2014.pdf
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 9:07:35 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2018 9:07:35 GMT
So the Queen and Prince Philip are recorded in socio-economic group E. That makes a lot of sense. Sociologists at their best.We do not use that system, I like this system in parts 1. Elite ( Queens, Dukes , Lizards) 2. Established Middle Class 3. Technical Middle Class ( Geeks ) 4. New Affluent Workers ( Major swing vote group I believe) 5. Traditional Working Class 6. Emergent service Workers ( ) 7. Precariat, or precarious proletariat ( Lumpen) eprints.lse.ac.uk/49654/1/Savage_New_model_social_class_2014.pdfWell I don't. That is deeply flawed as well. Both are far too economics based and rooted in a past age.
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 9:24:12 GMT
Post by jimboo2017 on Jun 11, 2018 9:24:12 GMT
We do not use that system, I like this system in parts1. Elite ( Queens, Dukes , Lizards) 2. Established Middle Class 3. Technical Middle Class ( Geeks ) 4. New Affluent Workers ( Major swing vote group I believe) 5. Traditional Working Class 6. Emergent service Workers ( ) 7. Precariat, or precarious proletariat ( Lumpen) eprints.lse.ac.uk/49654/1/Savage_New_model_social_class_2014.pdfWell I don't. That is deeply flawed as well. Both are far too economics based and rooted in a past age. ok - never said it was perfect
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 9:40:31 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2018 9:40:31 GMT
Well I don't. That is deeply flawed as well. Both are far too economics based and rooted in a past age. ok - never said it was perfect And I am grateful for the engagement and not getting at you. It is just that your categories seem so anecdotal that I don't see how you place people in them? With 4 of the categories the potential for overlap seems enormous. As with so much of sociology, it often looks like a set of ideas in search of supporting evidence rather than real bed-rock research leading to a set of conclusions? It is so often an arse-about-face pseudo science. I can see the economic side being an important input to 'socio-economic' but it is far from the end of the story if the classification is to have useful meaning. I contend that youare structuring boxes and then sifting the population carefully so as to place them in the 'right' box. To me that achieves nothing at all of any value to anything or anyone. Surely one needs a matrix of inputs along the lines of Income Educational achievement Cultural achievement Social achievement Range of views on nodal issue Housing situation Asset value Attach some sort of weighting or coding to each input and then group into like groupings and then and only then decide what those groupings appear to tell you.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,546
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 11, 2018 9:45:19 GMT
I thought retired people were classified according to their occupation before their retirement. I did some casual work with the 2011 census and I'm sure I remember this is how we were instructed to enter it if helping people complete their forms Anthony Wells said basically this on Twitter the other day, those with a private pension whose previous occupation is established are thus classified. Only those solely reliant on the state pension and others who are for whatever reason not categorisable go into group E. (though I think the latter group is still a fairly sizeable bloc of voters)
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 13:55:24 GMT
Post by Andrew_S on Jun 11, 2018 13:55:24 GMT
"Britain Elects @britainelects Greens overtake UKIP in our poll tracker for the first time: CON: 41.7% LAB: 39.4% LDEM: 7.8% GRN: 3.1% UKIP: 2.9% See more: britainelects.com/polling/westminster/ …" May-June-July 2017 a dramatic rise in the Labour graph. What do we attribute that to now after mature reflection? Was it site and time specific? If so why? And why has it unwound again? Why such a massive move so quickly? I think the consensus is that it was due to May's terrible campaigning skills.
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Crimson King
Lib Dem
Be nice to each other and sing in tune
Posts: 9,380
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 13:58:13 GMT
Post by Crimson King on Jun 11, 2018 13:58:13 GMT
May-June-July 2017 a dramatic rise in the Labour graph. What do we attribute that to now after mature reflection? Was it site and time specific? If so why? And why has it unwound again? Why such a massive move so quickly? I think the consensus is that it was due to May's terrible campaigning skills. has it?
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 14:41:06 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jun 11, 2018 14:41:06 GMT
May-June-July 2017 a dramatic rise in the Labour graph. What do we attribute that to now after mature reflection? Was it site and time specific? If so why? And why has it unwound again? Why such a massive move so quickly? I think the consensus is that it was due to May's terrible campaigning skills. I agree that point as a point. I am sure it was a constituent part of the the decline in the Conservative graph but really cannot buy it as much of a cause for the very marked Labour increase. Why would a poor Conservative campaign actually have any effect on the Labour graph? We have a collapse in the UKIP vote going disproportionately to Labour? Possibly? The main early splinter of UKIP to Conservatives took place 2015 but the latter hangover being more of a rump former Labour persuasion? It is not enough is it? But better than 'A Poor Conservative Campaign'. So an upsurge of 'Don't normally Vote' and 'Enthused Youth Vote'? Was it in fact mainly a Flash Mob effect as I suspected at the time? Who do we suspect has the firmer core vote as of now? I have long contended that it is for the Conservatives and that it is actually growing daily and despite all the in-house problems. I also think that the Labour core vote is diminishing all the time. But the polls such as they are show a fairly steady state. At this stage with Labour out of power for eight years and with a buoyant Momentum supporting a secure Corbyn leadership one might have suspected a marked Labour lead? But no, no such lead. Actually in arrears. So, I suspect the actuality is a major re-structuring of the core votes with the Conservatives hardening and building core whilst Labour soften and lose core? I say that because I think the Conservatives are starting to benefit from a major reappraisal in the heads of a significant proportion of the populace. This is a cultural and meme divergence that may be very deep-seated and that is not based in class or economic terms for the first time since WW2. As the Jewish votes peels towards the Conservatives so does elements of the vote from the well settled and assimilated black and Indian and also Pakistani family units who more and more identify with moderate social conservatism and the nuclear family. It is also from those losing an identity with place abroad and if not actually secular loosening their religious fundamentalism. Labour are vulnerable to moves to Green and LD because of Momentum and Corbyn, but picking up Remainer elements and Progressive urban elements with liberal social views and a modern metropolitan outlook. But the latter two streams could easily be put off by clunky Momentum rabble rousing and threats to their wealth from tax policies. Thus I see the gradualness towards Conservative being more fundamental and solid than the shallower and more ephemeral Labour gains and that under pressure the Labour vote will tend to be far weaker. In Scotland there is a fundamental shift caused by real division over Unionism with the Conservatives capitalising far more as being seen a the Unionist Party and also in many places as the socially conservative and family party. They have a building demographic and less taint of involvement in office.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
Jun 11, 2018 15:29:22 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jun 11, 2018 15:29:22 GMT
I think the consensus is that it was due to May's terrible campaigning skills. I agree that point as a point. I am sure it was a constituent part of the the decline in the Conservative graph but really cannot buy it as much of a cause for the very marked Labour increase. Why would a poor Conservative campaign actually have any effect on the Labour graph? We have a collapse in the UKIP vote going disproportionately to Labour? Possibly? The main early splinter of UKIP to Conservatives took place 2015 but the latter hangover being more of a rump former Labour persuasion? It is not enough is it? But better than 'A Poor Conservative Campaign'. So an upsurge of 'Don't normally Vote' and 'Enthused Youth Vote'? Was it in fact mainly a Flash Mob effect as I suspected at the time? Who do we suspect has the firmer core vote as of now? I have long contended that it is for the Conservatives and that it is actually growing daily and despite all the in-house problems. I also think that the Labour core vote is diminishing all the time. But the polls such as they are show a fairly steady state. At this stage with Labour out of power for eight years and with a buoyant Momentum supporting a secure Corbyn leadership one might have suspected a marked Labour lead? But no, no such lead. Actually in arrears. So, I suspect the actuality is a major re-structuring of the core votes with the Conservatives hardening and building core whilst Labour soften and lose core? I say that because I think the Conservatives are starting to benefit from a major reappraisal in the heads of a significant proportion of the populace. This is a cultural and meme divergence that may be very deep-seated and that is not based in class or economic terms for the first time since WW2. As the Jewish votes peels towards the Conservatives so does elements of the vote from the well settled and assimilated black and Indian and also Pakistani family units who more and more identify with moderate social conservatism and the nuclear family. It is also from those losing an identity with place abroad and if not actually secular loosening their religious fundamentalism. Labour are vulnerable to moves to Green and LD because of Momentum and Corbyn, but picking up Remainer elements and Progressive urban elements with liberal social views and a modern metropolitan outlook. But the latter two streams could easily be put off by clunky Momentum rabble rousing and threats to their wealth from tax policies. Thus I see the gradualness towards Conservative being more fundamental and solid than the shallower and more ephemeral Labour gains and that under pressure the Labour vote will tend to be far weaker. In Scotland there is a fundamental shift caused by real division over Unionism with the Conservatives capitalising far more as being seen a the Unionist Party and also in many places as the socially conservative and family party. They have a building demographic and less taint of involvement in office. I would hazard the current slack water is a result of 60% of leave voters backing the Tories. 80% of which are 100% committed to voting in the next GE. Which is significantly higher than the average which 65% of people 100% commited to voting. In 2015 67% of Jews voted Conservative and in 2017 77% of Jews voted Conservative. How many more Jewish people are you hazarding are peeling off to the Tories. Since the election of Jeremy quite a significant proportion of Greens have opted for Labour. We've seen the collapse of the Green Party in many cities are towns in England; Cambridge, Norwich, Bristol, etc.
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YouGov
Jun 12, 2018 8:37:48 GMT
Post by greenchristian on Jun 12, 2018 8:37:48 GMT
What about retired people who aren’t yet pensioners? So the Queen and Prince Philip are recorded in socio-economic group E. That makes a lot of sense. Sociologists at their best. Prince Philip has now retired, but the Queen is still working. Since the election of Jeremy quite a significant proportion of Greens have opted for Labour. We've seen the collapse of the Green Party in many cities are towns in England; Cambridge, Norwich, Bristol, etc. I think you mean Norwich and Oxford. I don't think that this effect has been clearly seen anywhere else. Cambridge Greens collapsed due to local factors well before Corbyn came on the scene. In Bristol Greens we've had two post-Corbyn elections. In the locals we fell back at least as much due to over-stretching ourselves with the switch to all-outs as to the Corbyn effect (if we'd targeted one or two fewer wards, we most likely would have won some of the Green-Labour contests that we narrowly missed out on), and one General election - where our voteshare fell back significantly, but hardly to a catastrophic collapse-of-the-party level.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
Jun 12, 2018 8:42:32 GMT
Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2018 8:42:32 GMT
So the Queen and Prince Philip are recorded in socio-economic group E. That makes a lot of sense. Sociologists at their best. Prince Philip has now retired, but the Queen is still working. Since the election of Jeremy quite a significant proportion of Greens have opted for Labour. We've seen the collapse of the Green Party in many cities are towns in England; Cambridge, Norwich, Bristol, etc. I think you mean Norwich and Oxford. I don't think that this effect has been clearly seen anywhere else. Cambridge Greens collapsed due to local factors well before Corbyn came on the scene. In Bristol Greens we've had two post-Corbyn elections. In the locals we fell back at least as much due to over-stretching ourselves with the switch to all-outs as to the Corbyn effect (if we'd targeted one or two fewer wards, we most likely would have won some of the Green-Labour contests that we narrowly missed out on), and one General election - where our voteshare fell back significantly, but hardly to a catastrophic collapse-of-the-party level. Bristol West is probably the best example of the Green vote collapsing to Labour in 2017.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,546
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YouGov
Jun 12, 2018 10:25:54 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Jun 12, 2018 10:25:54 GMT
Three other polling organisations have since reported, based on their findings amongst other things I can now give my deeply considered assessment of this poll: It's shit. Sort yourselves out, YouGov.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
Jun 12, 2018 11:46:22 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2018 11:46:22 GMT
Three other polling organisations have since reported, based on their findings amongst other things I can now give my deeply considered assessment of this poll: It's shit. Sort yourselves out, YouGov. it's margin of error. It may swing back the otherway
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
Jun 12, 2018 13:23:57 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jun 12, 2018 13:23:57 GMT
Three other polling organisations have since reported, based on their findings amongst other things I can now give my deeply considered assessment of this poll: It's shit. Sort yourselves out, YouGov. Meh it’s an outlier- they happen.
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2018 16:25:26 GMT
Post by justin124 on Jun 13, 2018 16:25:26 GMT
It is an outlier in a way, but in general YouGov are consistently showing the Tories doing better than other polls without much supporting evidence. It's certainly unusual on past evidence for ICM to be more optimistic from Labour's point of view than YouGov. All rather odd. Yougov went through a similar phase in late 2016 and early 2017. They suddenly went from providing Labour's best ratings to consistently over a period of several months recording their lowest vote shares. Only after the calling of the election did they fall back into line with other pollsters.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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YouGov
Jun 13, 2018 21:55:02 GMT
via mobile
Post by Deleted on Jun 13, 2018 21:55:02 GMT
It is an outlier in a way, but in general YouGov are consistently showing the Tories doing better than other polls without much supporting evidence. It's certainly unusual on past evidence for ICM to be more optimistic from Labour's point of view than YouGov. All rather odd. Yougov went through a similar phase in late 2016 and early 2017. They suddenly went from providing Labour's best ratings to consistently over a period of several months recording their lowest vote shares. Only after the calling of the election did they fall back into line with other pollsters. in that case it was a high number of labour d/k. Funnily enough it was changing the allocation of d/k what got the result so wrong for them
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Post by beesknee5 on Jun 14, 2018 20:59:15 GMT
Looks like the last one was dodgy
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YouGov
Jun 14, 2018 21:08:36 GMT
Post by carlton43 on Jun 14, 2018 21:08:36 GMT
Looks like the last one was dodgy Or this one is?
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