Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 4, 2019 18:07:52 GMT
There is something very interesting about Border People's. And so many were destroyed by the insistence on ethnicity=nationhood. The aforementioned Prussian Lithuanians, Masurians, Karelians, Ingrian Finns, Kola Norwegians, Dalmatians, Pontic Greeks, Banat Germans, French Flemish, Pomaks... Although curiously they were outlasted by others you'd think were more likely to vanish. Sorbs, Ladins, Rumantsch, Aromanians (how they hell have they survived? Tough bastards, clearly), Tornedal Finns... A strange middle ground between both paragraphs is taken by Transylvanian Saxon, which is the variant of Moselle Franconian that sounds closest to Luxembourgish despite centuries of contact loss. There's still a pretty large number of speakers, but i guess that the language is bound to wither away apart from a few in Romania that will try to keep its as a mother tongue, and perhaps a few others that somehow have made it to here as the large majority went to Germany due to government programs dating back to before 1989. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transylvanian_Saxon_dialectwww.siebenbuerger.de/zeitung/artikel/kultur/20050-vor-250-jahren-entdeckt.html (German) PS: The minority in Silesia is politically active: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Minority_Electoral_Committee
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Post by Arthur Figgis on Sept 4, 2019 19:48:37 GMT
And so many were destroyed by the insistence on ethnicity=nationhood. The aforementioned Prussian Lithuanians, Masurians, Karelians, Ingrian Finns, Kola Norwegians, Dalmatians, Pontic Greeks, Banat Germans, French Flemish, Pomaks... Although curiously they were outlasted by others you'd think were more likely to vanish. Sorbs, Ladins, Rumantsch, Aromanians (how they hell have they survived? Tough bastards, clearly), Tornedal Finns... A strange middle ground between both paragraphs is taken by Transylvanian Saxon, which is the variant of Moselle Franconian that sounds closest to Luxembourgish despite centuries of contact loss. There's still a pretty large number of speakers, but i guess that the language is bound to wither away apart from a few in Romania that will try to keep its as a mother tongue, and perhaps a few others that somehow have made it to here as the large majority went to Germany due to government programs dating back to before 1989. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transylvanian_Saxon_dialectwww.siebenbuerger.de/zeitung/artikel/kultur/20050-vor-250-jahren-entdeckt.html (German) PS: The minority in Silesia is politically active: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Minority_Electoral_CommitteeSpeaking of Transylvanian Saxon, I'll be in Schäßburg at about this time next week. Though being related by marriage to Székelys, I obviously call it Segesvár.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 5, 2019 2:36:06 GMT
Interesting to contrast with the very mixed (culturally, linguistically, ancestrally) population in Upper Silesia who had a less friendly relationship with the German Nationalist ideology (though absolutely identified strongly as German), mostly stayed put after 1945 and remain in the general region to this day (though large numbers left for Germany as soon as Ostpolitik made doing so possible, and more still after 1990). Of course they were (are) Catholics, and that's the difference. Silesia more generally was a rather religiously tolerant place even during the Kulturkampf. Breslau University was even founded as the first mixed denomination theological college. Perhaps the place to speculate: Silesia was made a little bit catholic by Austria (Berlin's/Cologne's cardinal Meisner being a fruit of "us"), but remained mainly protestantic. But with an InClination for mysticism (the lateBaroque era was Germany's nadir - yet, their HighTime!). Mysticism not in the orthodox way: the personal&plastical&passionate one of St.BERNHARD or St.THERESE with a very concrete GOD, rather a heterodox quietism and abstract speculation. "Die Stillen im Lande" ("The quiet in the land"): Like the western MidGermans at Rhine&Main preferring the small, also dominated by small/middle towns, but contrary to Franconians/Rhinelander modest, calm and quiet people; eastern moll instead of western Dur. Interesting for us, that the Silesians voted mostly moderately in the v.BISMARCK-Reich - it was the StrongHold of moderate conservatives ("FreeConservatives") and later liberals ("FreeLiberals"/..., so not the NationalLiberals).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2019 10:12:44 GMT
Silesia more generally was a rather religiously tolerant place even during the Kulturkampf. Breslau University was even founded as the first mixed denomination theological college. Perhaps the place to speculate: Silesia was made a little bit catholic by Austria (Berlin's/Cologne's cardinal Meisner being a fruit of "us"), but remained mainly protestantic. But with an InClination for mysticism (the lateBaroque era was Germany's nadir - yet, their HighTime!). Mysticism not in the orthodox way: the personal&plastical&passionate one of St.BERNHARD or St.THERESE with a very concrete GOD, rather a heterodox quietism and abstract speculation. "Die Stillen im Lande" ("The quiet in the land"): Like the western MidGermans at Rhine&Main preferring the small, also dominated by small/middle towns, but contrary to Franconians/Rhinelander modest, calm and quiet people; eastern moll instead of western Dur. Interesting for us, that the Silesians voted mostly moderately in the v.BISMARCK-Reich - it was the StrongHold of moderate conservatives ("FreeConservatives") and later liberals ("FreeLiberals"/..., so not the NationalLiberals). Silesia was a different case to East Prussia: - 1. being confessionally mixed (East Prussia was almost wholly Lutheran apart from Urmland/Warmia); 2. with religion being linked to nationality (virtually all Lutherans being German, though Germans in some areas had remained Catholic as well as nearly all Poles); and 3. the Polish-speaking population of Upper Silesia having a continuing sense of connection to Poland (the Silesian states had been ruled by Polish dukes under the Bohemian Crown, in one case up to 1675).
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on Sept 21, 2019 23:08:19 GMT
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 22, 2019 0:29:36 GMT
And we would have a negative majority, what would mean, that CDU's Mohring, who is from the conservative wing, had to endorse THE LEFT's Ramelow...
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 17, 2019 10:43:32 GMT
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Post by curiousliberal on Oct 17, 2019 12:36:27 GMT
How critical is this for AKK? Besides Hamburg next year, am I mistaken in assuming it's the only remaining state election left for the parties to test themselves (before the December 2020 CDU leadership election, that is)?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 17, 2019 15:42:57 GMT
How critical is this for AKK? Besides Hamburg next year, am I mistaken in assuming it's the only remaining state election left for the parties to test themselves (before the December 2020 CDU leadership election, that is)? I'd say less critical than Saxony. But if the AfD were to come close to the CDU score it would not look great.
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 17, 2019 16:27:55 GMT
How critical is this for AKK? Besides Hamburg next year, am I mistaken in assuming it's the only remaining state election left for the parties to test themselves (before the December 2020 CDU leadership election, that is)? I'd say less critical than Saxony. But if the AfD were to come close to the CDU score it would not look great. Probably more to the point than the longer answer i had written up after first coming here to put up the link for this vote matcher: www.voteswiper.org/en/germany/state-election-thuringiaMy miserable result... 1. Die Linke 50% 2. Demokratie DIREKT! 50% 3. Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands 44%
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Toylyyev
Mebyon Kernow
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 17, 2019 20:49:23 GMT
There's also a new Infratest Dimap poll up now, and they're agreeing with Your analysis. But the election is on the Sunday after the next, so normally both pollsters should publish another one.
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 24, 2019 11:06:34 GMT
This poll is something of a shocker. An absolute majority supporting the far-left or far-right in Bach's birthplace (so to speak).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 24, 2019 12:15:37 GMT
This poll is something of a shocker. An absolute majority supporting the far-left or far-right in Bach's birthplace (so to speak). No the first one, though. Being tolerated by Mr.Höcke is totally forbidden, thus it will be exciting, when CDU's Mohring from the conservative wing will have to support a LEFT-government.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 24, 2019 16:35:22 GMT
This is known in Germany as "the negative majority" and was a feature of late Weimar politics.
To see Thuringia so enthusiastically back the new and improved SED and DNVP is really shocking. After reunification it was run by a supreme pragmatist and political bruiser, Berni Vogel of the CDU, still the only man to be head of two German states.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 26, 2019 19:43:18 GMT
There wasn't to be another poll from Infratest dimap this week for the Thuringia election, so the last week one made it into the last results by pollster table. Fieldwork Size CDU% SPD% GRÜNE% FDP% LINKE% AfD% Other% Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 23-24/10 1177 26 9 7 5 28 21 4 INSA 14-21/10 1010 24 9 8 5 28 24 2 Infratest dimap 14-16/10 1011 24 8 8 4 29 24 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Landtag election 14/9/14 33.5 12.4 5.7 2.5 28.2 10.6 7.1 Landtag election 30/8/09 31.2 18.5 6.2 7.6 27.4 - 9.1 Remembering Georg Ebner 's earlier point on the FGW house effect, the last INSA numbers for the CDU and AfD are aligned with Infratest rather than FGW. INSA is using the German YouGov panel for their national polling according to wahlrecht.de. I would guess that the vote share for the Left will come in above the displayed shares purely from the incumbency bonus characteristic to most Landtag elections, continuing their upwards trend in polling over the last year, but am unsure on the strength of that effect and where the votes would arrive from.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Oct 26, 2019 20:34:02 GMT
This is known in Germany as "the negative majority" and was a feature of late Weimar politics. To see Thuringia so enthusiastically back the new and improved SED and DNVP is really shocking. After reunification it was run by a supreme pragmatist and political bruiser, Berni Vogel of the CDU, still the only man to be head of two German states. In Denmark, a similar situation might result in a minority government headed by one of the 'minor' parties... and there already has been at least one minority executive in the East that i can recall off the back of my head. I can see both sides being sufficiently grown-up to prefer such a setup to the expected bickering inherent with the other alternative. And i had been warned about what was up in these places by overhearing a German pol talking about a lost generation resulting from the particular reunification policies of the Kohl administration (' Treuhand' and all that). Must have been some 20 years ago, and even if it seems to be a preferred meme of the concerned, in this case the prediction has had some bite already with probably some more on the plate.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 26, 2019 21:34:11 GMT
There wasn't to be another poll from Infratest dimap this week for the Thuringia election, so the last week one made it into the last results by pollster table. Fieldwork Size CDU% SPD% GRÜNE% FDP% LINKE% AfD% Other% Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 23-24/10 1177 26 9 7 5 28 21 4 INSA 14-21/10 1010 24 9 8 5 28 24 2 Infratest dimap 14-16/10 1011 24 8 8 4 29 24 4 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Landtag election 14/9/14 33.5 12.4 5.7 2.5 28.2 10.6 7.1 Landtag election 30/8/09 31.2 18.5 6.2 7.6 27.4 - 9.1 Remembering Georg Ebner 's earlier point on the FGW house effect, the last INSA numbers for the CDU and AfD are aligned with Infratest rather than FGW. INSA is using the German YouGov panel for their national polling according to wahlrecht.de. I would guess that the vote share for the Left will come in above the displayed shares purely from the incumbency bonus characteristic to most Landtag elections, continuing their upwards trend in polling over the last year, but am unsure on the strength of that effect and where the votes would arrive from. The incumbency boni of the regional PMs are often overshadowed by federal politics. But not this time: Ramelow seemed to me and the MainStream-media a lost case few years ago (especially after the failed reform of districts), but he has managed to recover. Recent results from other eastern regions indicate indeed, that he could do better in Germany's most german region than polled (61% are satisfied with his work).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 26, 2019 21:38:07 GMT
... and there already has been at least one minority executive in the East that i can recall off the back of my head. Yes, Högner's SPD&Greens in SaxonyAnhalt since 1998 (?).
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 27, 2019 14:49:03 GMT
When results due?
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 27, 2019 15:18:27 GMT
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