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Post by Antiochian on Oct 30, 2018 10:41:04 GMT
True.. true... but each German state election is a different beast.. Eastern states tacking right and left to the extremes... Bavaria tacking away from those who brought the immigration wave (blaming the SPD more than the CSU bizarrely) and the latest result showing a lot more bourgeois grumpiness than working class resistance to the immigration wave. My original point is what is the trigger to unseat Merkel? The decision has been left to her but she is becoming a Churchillian figure.. and not in a good way. Staying well beyond the use-by date and increasingly looking tragic and adrift. As for Italy, agreed again, but Matthew Goodwin points out in yesterday's Telegraph even the EU's own "poll" of satisfaction shows that only 44% of Italians would vote to stay in the EU (not the Euro) which in light of the Brexit vote percentages here is exceptionally damning. The Euro is a comfort blanket for the Italians they want it but they don't want it. Salvini and Di Maio may be "new" kids on the block but they both have some deep (though iconoclastic) academic economists lurking in their off-stage. Essentially mini-bots (which I understand because the same thing was done by the government of Buenos Aires province in 2002-2003) would be a Trojan Horse to get rid of the euro while still letting the middle classes think they were keeping the Euro. Its political genius if it can be pulled off. It's Gresham's Law in practice... Good spot on the regional nature of German changes, perhaps the way to get a functioning govt is to devolve as much as possible to the Lander. I also take the Churchill comparison - thing is, everyone knew she was getting a bit tired before the last federal elections, the real story isn't "Merkel is past it" it's "no alternative in sight after 10 years". The Mini-BOTS thing looks interesting - not so sure it is the death knell for the eurozone, it might be the safety valve it needs. Mini-Bots could be a fascinating thread in themselves. You are right in that they are a pressure valve. They are only produced internally so Italians who want Euros (for holidays, savings cushion, to buy junk on Amazon) would have to "export" something to earn them. The mini-bots themselves are somewhat like the tokens that companies used to produce that could only be used in the company store... however when an economy is so much like a company store.. then they work... even more so when all the utilities are state-owned. Just wait for the shrieks from the privatised utilities when they are told they must accept them as good payment.
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 30, 2018 11:29:02 GMT
Good spot on the regional nature of German changes, perhaps the way to get a functioning govt is to devolve as much as possible to the Lander. I also take the Churchill comparison - thing is, everyone knew she was getting a bit tired before the last federal elections, the real story isn't "Merkel is past it" it's "no alternative in sight after 10 years". The Mini-BOTS thing looks interesting - not so sure it is the death knell for the eurozone, it might be the safety valve it needs. Mini-Bots could be a fascinating thread in themselves. You are right in that they are a pressure valve. They are only produced internally so Italians who want Euros (for holidays, savings cushion, to buy junk on Amazon) would have to "export" something to earn them. The mini-bots themselves are somewhat like the tokens that companies used to produce that could only be used in the company store... however when an economy is so much like a company store.. then they work... even more so when all the utilities are state-owned. Just wait for the shrieks from the privatised utilities when they are told they must accept them as good payment. This is a very typical invention from an Italian mind and could be the saving of Italy that used to thrive and prosper on a continual devaluation creep within the Lira. It will be fully and absolutely controlled by the Italian State with no interference or control from the EU. Yet it will be denominated in euros and circulate as quasi money and eventually as actual money (as did gettone issued by the phone corporation) and therefore as expanded it will be a purely national form of fiscal and fiduciary policy at the national control of Italy. If this takes off it could transform Italy and give it back the power to influence and massage its own economy, but if other nations adopt the system it may be a way of breaking the German stranglehold on the economies of the other nations. This could be brilliant and even a cause of decline and damage to the whole euro system.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 30, 2018 13:01:09 GMT
Bavaria's VoteStreams were researched by InfratestDimap (for ARD) here: wahl.tagesschau.de/wahlen/2018-10-14-LT-DE-BY/analyse-wanderung.shtml#11_Wanderung_CSUBut students from the universities of Munich&Regensburg&Passau conducted another one (method: 8.000 Telephon-interviews [CATI] before&after, 1.500 OnLine, 17.200 ExitPoll in the 3 cities plus few villages in LowerB.&UpperPalatine): The "Institut für WahlForschung…" made one, too:
ForschungsgruppeWahlen published at ZDF, where - according to their data - the AfD-voters came (but not the other parties): The from-CSU-to-AfD, e.g., is 190.000 for FGW, 160.000 for ItD, 153.000 for the Institute and 339.000 for the univ.-students.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 30, 2018 13:12:40 GMT
Outstanding is this chart on what Hessian GREEN-voters consider a good coalition:
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Post by Antiochian on Oct 30, 2018 13:34:07 GMT
Mini-Bots could be a fascinating thread in themselves. You are right in that they are a pressure valve. They are only produced internally so Italians who want Euros (for holidays, savings cushion, to buy junk on Amazon) would have to "export" something to earn them. The mini-bots themselves are somewhat like the tokens that companies used to produce that could only be used in the company store... however when an economy is so much like a company store.. then they work... even more so when all the utilities are state-owned. Just wait for the shrieks from the privatised utilities when they are told they must accept them as good payment. This is a very typical invention from an Italian mind and could be the saving of Italy that used to thrive and prosper on a continual devaluation creep within the Lira. It will be fully and absolutely controlled by the Italian State with no interference or control from the EU. Yet it will be denominated in euros and circulate as quasi money and eventually as actual money (as did gettone issued by the phone corporation) and therefore as expanded it will be a purely national form of fiscal and fiduciary policy at the national control of Italy. If this takes off it could transform Italy and give it back the power to influence and massage its own economy, but if other nations adopt the system it may be a way of breaking the German stranglehold on the economies of the other nations. This could be brilliant and even a cause of decline and damage to the whole euro system. Where did you hear that these will be denominated in Euros....? My understanding is that they will be florins... it may start out as a parallel currency but will rapidly diverge..
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 30, 2018 13:38:03 GMT
This is a very typical invention from an Italian mind and could be the saving of Italy that used to thrive and prosper on a continual devaluation creep within the Lira. It will be fully and absolutely controlled by the Italian State with no interference or control from the EU. Yet it will be denominated in euros and circulate as quasi money and eventually as actual money (as did gettone issued by the phone corporation) and therefore as expanded it will be a purely national form of fiscal and fiduciary policy at the national control of Italy. If this takes off it could transform Italy and give it back the power to influence and massage its own economy, but if other nations adopt the system it may be a way of breaking the German stranglehold on the economies of the other nations. This could be brilliant and even a cause of decline and damage to the whole euro system. Where did you hear that these will be denominated in Euros....? My understanding is that they will be florins... it may start out as a parallel currency but will rapidly diverge..
Of course the "10p pieces" that were around when i was a child were actually florins (two shilling pieces).
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 30, 2018 13:50:31 GMT
This is a very typical invention from an Italian mind and could be the saving of Italy that used to thrive and prosper on a continual devaluation creep within the Lira. It will be fully and absolutely controlled by the Italian State with no interference or control from the EU. Yet it will be denominated in euros and circulate as quasi money and eventually as actual money (as did gettone issued by the phone corporation) and therefore as expanded it will be a purely national form of fiscal and fiduciary policy at the national control of Italy. If this takes off it could transform Italy and give it back the power to influence and massage its own economy, but if other nations adopt the system it may be a way of breaking the German stranglehold on the economies of the other nations. This could be brilliant and even a cause of decline and damage to the whole euro system. Where did you hear that these will be denominated in Euros....? My understanding is that they will be florins... it may start out as a parallel currency but will rapidly diverge.. Solely dependent on reports online all of which imply or state denomination in euros and without an interest coupon. The FT report explicitly states denominated in euros. The neatness is in there being no interest coupon and in not making it legal tender, but also making it widely available and encouraging the acceptability and usage. It is a wonderful subterfuge. I love it. Public borrowing without cost and a threat to Germany who could under certain circumstances be forced back out of the euro to the DM. It is a defence mechanism for the Med nations. I love it.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Oct 30, 2018 13:59:15 GMT
Outstanding is this chart on what Hessian GREEN-voters consider a good coalition: Fascinating. Do you think Greens prefer coalition with the conservatives over the other Left parties because they are conservative themselves, or because they think the previous government was a success? In a left-coalition they would surely supply the regional PM!
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Post by Antiochian on Oct 30, 2018 14:27:10 GMT
Where did you hear that these will be denominated in Euros....? My understanding is that they will be florins... it may start out as a parallel currency but will rapidly diverge.. Solely dependent on reports online all of which imply or state denomination in euros and without an interest coupon. The FT report explicitly states denominated in euros. The neatness is in there being no interest coupon and in not making it legal tender, but also making it widely available and encouraging the acceptability and usage. It is a wonderful subterfuge. I love it. Public borrowing without cost and a threat to Germany who could under certain circumstances be forced back out of the euro to the DM. It is a defence mechanism for the Med nations. I love it. Does nothing for competitiveness and blows out the debt... That's why it needs to be another denomination..
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 30, 2018 14:47:40 GMT
Outstanding is this chart on what Hessian GREEN-voters consider a good coalition: Fascinating. Do you think Greens prefer coalition with the conservatives over the other Left parties because they are conservative themselves, or because they think the previous government was a success? In a left-coalition they would surely supply the regional PM! With such a high number i'd say: Partly this, partly that and partly both.
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Post by warofdreams on Oct 30, 2018 14:53:14 GMT
Fascinating. Do you think Greens prefer coalition with the conservatives over the other Left parties because they are conservative themselves, or because they think the previous government was a success? In a left-coalition they would surely supply the regional PM! With such a high number i'd say: Partly this, partly that and partly both. It would have been interesting to see figures for an implausible CDU-Green-Linke coalition, to see whether it's motivated by a reluctance to include more extreme parties, or perhaps a preference for smaller coalitions which may be more stable - the preference for SPD-Green-FDP over CDU-Green-FDP suggests that there may not be an overall preference for the CDU over the SPD.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 30, 2018 15:02:13 GMT
With such a high number i'd say: Partly this, partly that and partly both. It would have been interesting to see figures for an implausible CDU-Green-Linke coalition, to see whether it's motivated by a reluctance to include more extreme parties, or perhaps a preference for smaller coalitions which may be more stable - the preference for SPD-Green-FDP over CDU-Green-FDP suggests that there may not be an overall preference for the CDU over the SPD. Sure, the GREENS would dislike being the left OutSider in a coalition with CDU&FDP. This PuzzleGaming is alltogether so terribly Dutch...
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 30, 2018 23:11:21 GMT
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 31, 2018 16:44:05 GMT
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Post by greenhert on Nov 3, 2018 23:08:29 GMT
I wonder if a coalition has been officially formed yet? Tarek al-Wazir could become the second Green Minister-President of a Landtag if he can get the SPD and FDP to form a traffic light coalition in Hesse.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Nov 3, 2018 23:15:51 GMT
I wonder if a coalition has been officially formed yet? Tarek al-Wazir could become the second Green Minister-President of a Landtag if he can get the SPD and FDP to form a traffic light coalition in Hesse. I don't get the feeling that the SPD would want to be the junior party in a coalition (particularly to a party that until a couple of months ago was virtually always the minor party everywhere). Furthermore, the FDP in Hesse are rather right wing and much more naturally suited to the CDU so I'm not sure what they actually have in common with the Greens or SPD. Has there been serious suggestion of traffic light?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 3, 2018 23:24:26 GMT
I wonder if a coalition has been officially formed yet? Tarek al-Wazir could become the second Green Minister-President of a Landtag if he can get the SPD and FDP to form a traffic light coalition in Hesse. I don't get the feeling that the SPD would want to be the junior party in a coalition (particularly to a party that until a couple of months ago was virtually always the minor party everywhere). Furthermore, the FDP in Hesse are rather right wing and much more naturally suited to the CDU so I'm not sure what they actually have in common with the Greens or SPD. Has there been serious suggestion of traffic light? Yep, the FDP's strength in Hesse unsurprisingly lies in Frankfurt's City-types. As well as the Hesse patrician class. Even NRW doesn't have a FDP branch with a more obviously economically right-wing bent, surely?
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Nov 4, 2018 0:17:33 GMT
I wonder if a coalition has been officially formed yet? Tarek al-Wazir could become the second Green Minister-President of a Landtag if he can get the SPD and FDP to form a traffic light coalition in Hesse. I don't get the feeling that the SPD would want to be the junior party in a coalition (particularly to a party that until a couple of months ago was virtually always the minor party everywhere). The SPD reluctantly agreed to be junior coalition partners to the Greens in BaWü in 2011 after winning just one seat fewer, in order to oust the CDU... and look where that's got them. This time in Hesse, they're only 94 votes behind (on the provisional result) and have the same number of seats. It'll take a while to form a coalition there, but in Bavaria the CSU and FW have come to an extraordinarily swift agreement by German standards. Markus Söder is set to be re-confirmed as PM by the end of the week.
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Toylyyev
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Post by Toylyyev on Nov 4, 2018 0:46:10 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 4, 2018 5:22:42 GMT
I don't get the feeling that the SPD would want to be the junior party in a coalition (particularly to a party that until a couple of months ago was virtually always the minor party everywhere). The SPD reluctantly agreed to be junior coalition partners to the Greens in BaWü in 2011 after winning just one seat fewer, in order to oust the CDU... and look where that's got them. This time in Hesse, they're only 94 votes behind (on the provisional result) and have the same number of seats. It'll take a while to form a coalition there, but in Bavaria the CSU and FW have come to an extraordinarily swift agreement by German standards. Markus Söder is set to be re-confirmed as PM by the end of the week. No Ampel in Hesse, Schwarz-Grün edges closer. m.faz.net/aktuell/politik/hessen-gruene-signalisieren-fortsetzung-der-koalition-mit-cdu-15872414.html
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