iain
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Post by iain on Mar 4, 2020 21:07:06 GMT
It’s being reported that Steve Bullock is making a last minute entry into the Montana senate contest. This is a bit of a coup for Democrats, after he has repeatedly ruled out running. Daines will still start as favourite to hold the seat, but this certainly makes it a competitive race.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Mar 4, 2020 21:39:35 GMT
It’s being reported that Steve Bullock is making a last minute entry into the Montana senate contest. This is a bit of a coup for Democrats, after he has repeatedly ruled out running. Daines will still start as favourite to hold the seat, but this certainly makes it a competitive race. Bit of a change of scene from Lewisham..
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 5, 2020 0:12:20 GMT
Super Tuesday was a bad night all around for Justice Democrats. In addition to Sanders' setbacks, the only three candidates they'd endorsed fared badly in primaries: - In TX-28, incumbent Henry Cuellar fended off their challenge by 4% - In Texas' Senate primary, Cristina Tsuntsun Ramirez has been mathematically eliminated from the path to a runoff with MJ Hegar (Royce West will be her challenger instead) - In CA-53, early returns suggest (endorsed) Georgette Gomez is losing in the jungle primary to Sara Jacobs, 30% to 19%. However, if both stay ahead of the nearest challenger (a Republican at 14%), they will both advance to the GE
Additionally, a candidate for whom they'd revoked their endorsement (Cenk Uygur) placed 4th in CA-25's jungle primary (at 6%). A disappointing showing all around for progressives, but truly hellish for The Young Turks.
On the Republican side, Roy Moore placed 4th at 7% and will not make it to the Alabama Senate runoff. Concerningly for Jeff Sessions, though, he was narrowly led by Tuberville who has been running on better loyalty to Trump. I think Sessions is more likely than not to lose the runoff.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 5, 2020 1:24:01 GMT
Super Tuesday was a bad night all around for Justice Democrats. In addition to Sanders' setbacks, the only three candidates they'd endorsed fared badly in primaries: - In TX-28, incumbent Henry Cuellar fended off their challenge by 4% - In Texas' Senate primary, Cristina Tsuntsun Ramirez has been mathematically eliminated from the path to a runoff with MJ Hegar (Royce West will be her challenger instead) - In CA-53, early returns suggest (endorsed) Georgette Gomez is losing in the jungle primary to Sara Jacobs, 30% to 19%. However, if both stay ahead of the nearest challenger (a Republican at 14%), they will both advance to the GE Additionally, a candidate for whom they'd revoked their endorsement (Cenk Uygur) placed 4th in CA-25's jungle primary (at 6%). A disappointing showing all around for progressives, but truly hellish for The Young Turks. On the Republican side, Roy Moore placed 4th at 7% and will not make it to the Alabama Senate runoff. Concerningly for Jeff Sessions, though, he was narrowly led by Tuberville who has been running on better loyalty to Trump. I think Sessions is more likely than not to lose the runoff. Although Tuberville ran on loyalty to Trump as Coach of the Alabama Crimson Tide football (American version not ours) team, he could probably have pledged loyalty to Jeremy Corbyn and remained competitive...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2020 2:41:24 GMT
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Post by tiberius on Mar 5, 2020 2:44:07 GMT
This race starts as solid Buttar. RIP Pelosi. (this is sarcasm, btw. I cant see Pelosi losing)
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 5, 2020 13:23:47 GMT
It’s being reported that Steve Bullock is making a last minute entry into the Montana senate contest. This is a bit of a coup for Democrats, after he has repeatedly ruled out running. Daines will still start as favourite to hold the seat, but this certainly makes it a competitive race. Obviously this could make for a competitive race but I think a lot of Democrats are way to optimistic about Bullock. He was twice elected Governor by small margins, 2% in 2012 and 4% in 2016 against a badly flawed candidate, and running for the Senate in a state which strongly favours the other party is a lot harder than running for Governor. Furthermore Daines doesn't have any glaring weaknesses, he comes across pretty well, doesn't embrace any extreme positions, has largely kept his head down with regards to Trump and seems prepared for a competitive race (a had £5 million cash on hand at the end of December).
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 5, 2020 13:40:34 GMT
With presidential turnout I think Bullock will come up short.
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Post by adlai52 on Mar 6, 2020 8:38:34 GMT
With presidential turnout I think Bullock will come up short. He did win his last Gubernatorial race in 2016 when Trump was running away with MT at the Presidential level. Expect him to fair better than Strickland in OH or Bredensen in TN, both former governor convinced to run for senate in red states. Although Tester only narrowly won in 2016, it'll be interesting to see some polling over the summer and how much cash he can raise.
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Mar 6, 2020 8:47:17 GMT
With presidential turnout I think Bullock will come up short. He did win his last Gubernatorial race in 2016 when Trump was running away with MT at the Presidential level. Expect him to fair better than Strickland in OH or Bredensen in TN, both former governor convinced to run for senate in red states. Although Tester only narrowly won in 2016, it'll be interesting to see some polling over the summer and how much cash he can raise. I suspect the difference with Bredesen and Strickland is Bullock is currently in office and not relying on fond memories. I think the more appropriate comparison would be with Joe Manchin when he first ran for Robert Byrd’s seat in West Virginia. Tester’s margin of victory in 2018, 4.4%, was actually his largest, 0.4% ahead of his previous best in his 2012 re-election against Denny Rehberg.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 6, 2020 12:03:10 GMT
He did win his last Gubernatorial race in 2016 when Trump was running away with MT at the Presidential level. Expect him to fair better than Strickland in OH or Bredensen in TN, both former governor convinced to run for senate in red states. Although Tester only narrowly won in 2016, it'll be interesting to see some polling over the summer and how much cash he can raise. I suspect the difference with Bredesen and Strickland is Bullock is currently in office and not relying on fond memories. I think the more appropriate comparison would be with Joe Manchin when he first ran for Robert Byrd’s seat in West Virginia. Tester’s margin of victory in 2018, 4.4%, was actually his largest, 0.4% ahead of his previous best in his 2012 re-election against Denny Rehberg. I think the Manchin comparison is a good one, so lets add some numbers. In 2008 Manchin was re-elected Governor by a 44 point margin. Two years later he won his first Senate election by 10 points.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 6, 2020 12:24:54 GMT
This may be a case of letting your optimism run away with you, but there may also be something in it:
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 6, 2020 14:06:15 GMT
This may be a case of letting your optimism run away with you, but there may also be something in it: There is no doubt that the Senate is in play but the Democrats still need a lot to fall for them. Firstly lets assume that Doug Jones loses in Alabama, that leaves the Democrats needing to pick up 4 seats for a 50-50 tie. Colorado looks nailed on and I think they are favoured in Arizona at the moment. North Carolina is at best a toss up and might just lean Democrat. I still think Collins has the edge in Maine but that one is far from certain. Therefore it is certainly possible that the Democrats will win those 4 seats and make it a 50-50 tie, which is of course just enough if they win the Presidency. The search for a 51st seat however gets a bit trickier. Georgia, Iowa, Montana and at a push Texas and Kansas (if GOP primary voters do something stupid) could all be vulnerable but to varying degrees I regard the GOP as clear favourites in all of them.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 6, 2020 15:15:42 GMT
This may be a case of letting your optimism run away with you, but there may also be something in it: There is no doubt that the Senate is in play but the Democrats still need a lot to fall for them. Firstly lets assume that Doug Jones loses in Alabama, that leaves the Democrats needing to pick up 4 seats for a 50-50 tie. Colorado looks nailed on and I think they are favoured in Arizona at the moment. North Carolina is at best a toss up and might just lean Democrat. I still think Collins has the edge in Maine but that one is far from certain. Therefore it is certainly possible that the Democrats will win those 4 seats and make it a 50-50 tie, which is of course just enough if they win the Presidency. The search for a 51st seat however gets a bit trickier. Georgia, Iowa, Montana and at a push Texas and Kansas (if GOP primary voters do something stupid) could all be vulnerable but to varying degrees I regard the GOP as clear favourites in all of them. Sparse primary polling suggests GOP voters in Kansas are about to do something stupid, though I suspect heightened partisanship would push Kobach over the line (just as it will probably push Bullock under the line in MT) unless there is a recession or COVID-19 gets much worse. (The flipside of that is that Susan Collins' seat is more endangered than ever before, and her tanking approval ratings suggest to me that it's poised to flip.) The Democrats may also have problems in NH and Michigan. Even if NH goes Republican (which it can do without the Democrats outright losing the presidential contest), Shaheen *should* hold on, but there's room for error there. In Michigan, however, Gary Peters' most likely opponent seems impressive and will probably outperform the Republican presidential vote. The other problem for Senate Democrats is what happens if a senator is picked as VP. Even if the state they're from is only vaguely competitive, voters may be significantly more inclined to back the Republicans in the special election that follows (assuming there's a Democratic administration). If the state they're from has a Republican governor, the problem gets even worse in the interim. If Biden is president and the Senate is Republican, his theory of governance (an open distaste for executive power) will essentially shatter most of the administration's stated goals from day one.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 6, 2020 16:54:39 GMT
Another race people are overlooking is Kentucky.
Like Kansas, the Democrats won the governor race there and McConnell is very unpopular.
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 6, 2020 16:58:40 GMT
Another race people are overlooking is Kentucky. Like Kansas, the Democrats won the governor race there and McConnell is very unpopular. Not in the same league as Kobach. Only possible (let alone likely) in a landslide, IMO.
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Post by adlai52 on Mar 6, 2020 19:41:18 GMT
Another race people are overlooking is Kentucky. Like Kansas, the Democrats won the governor race there and McConnell is very unpopular. Not in the same league as Kobach. Only possible (let alone likely) in a landslide, IMO. Even then Mitch McConnell is the clear favourite, he’s has built up an intimidating political machine over the last few decades and has form in crushing over hyped democratic opponents. Kentucky has been fools gold for Democrats before and in recent years the party’s base in the east of the state has collapsed (last year’s gubernatorial win notwithstanding), while it’s likely to be among Trump’s best states in November. Agree that Dems have good shots at CO, AZ and probably also ME, with NC probably the next most likely to fall. After that, one of KS (where Trump could save even a week GOP candidate), TX (where Cornyn is a much stronger candidate than Cruz, but turnout could favour the Dems more than in 2018), MT and then the twin races in GA are all long shots - if you could really juice turnout among rural AAs and in the Atlanta conurbation I would fancy the GA races to be the most plausible of that group?
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Post by curiousliberal on Mar 6, 2020 21:38:16 GMT
Not in the same league as Kobach. Only possible (let alone likely) in a landslide, IMO. Even then Mitch McConnell is the clear favourite, he’s has built up an intimidating political machine over the last few decades and has form in crushing over hyped democratic opponents. Kentucky has been fools gold for Democrats before and in recent years the party’s base in the east of the state has collapsed (last year’s gubernatorial win notwithstanding), while it’s likely to be among Trump’s best states in November. Agree that Dems have good shots at CO, AZ and probably also ME, with NC probably the next most likely to fall. After that, one of KS (where Trump could save even a week GOP candidate), TX (where Cornyn is a much stronger candidate than Cruz, but turnout could favour the Dems more than in 2018), MT and then the twin races in GA are all long shots - if you could really juice turnout among rural AAs and in the Atlanta conurbation I would fancy the GA races to be the most plausible of that group? I'd put IA in the 'realistic longshot' group (TX, GA, MT and KS with Kobach) too, given how elastic the state is (in part thanks to the intense campaigning that goes on there) and the potential for the retaliatory tariffs to turn farmers against Trump. I would certainly bet on a disproportionate swing to the Democrats relative to the national swing, even as other rural states continue to trend into Trump territory. It doesn't help that the Democratic frontrunner in Kentucky seems slightly incompetent - a bit of a flip-flopper and a minor gaffe machine without the Biden credentials to mitigate for those.
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Post by adlai52 on Mar 7, 2020 10:26:23 GMT
Even then Mitch McConnell is the clear favourite, he’s has built up an intimidating political machine over the last few decades and has form in crushing over hyped democratic opponents. Kentucky has been fools gold for Democrats before and in recent years the party’s base in the east of the state has collapsed (last year’s gubernatorial win notwithstanding), while it’s likely to be among Trump’s best states in November. Agree that Dems have good shots at CO, AZ and probably also ME, with NC probably the next most likely to fall. After that, one of KS (where Trump could save even a week GOP candidate), TX (where Cornyn is a much stronger candidate than Cruz, but turnout could favour the Dems more than in 2018), MT and then the twin races in GA are all long shots - if you could really juice turnout among rural AAs and in the Atlanta conurbation I would fancy the GA races to be the most plausible of that group? I'd put IA in the 'realistic longshot' group (TX, GA, MT and KS with Kobach) too, given how elastic the state is (in part thanks to the intense campaigning that goes on there) and the potential for the retaliatory tariffs to turn farmers against Trump. I would certainly bet on a disproportionate swing to the Democrats relative to the national swing, even as other rural states continue to trend into Trump territory. It doesn't help that the Democratic frontrunner in Kentucky seems slightly incompetent - a bit of a flip-flopper and a minor gaffe machine without the Biden credentials to mitigate for those. Forgot about IA, definitely one of the plausible long shots. Agree on McGrath should probably had another crack at KY06. It was always a massive long shot, but don’t understand why the DSCC didn’t consider for Matt Jones when he was toying with a run. Another sleeper race could be Alaska, it’s a state that throws up the occasional surprise and Al Gross is well resourced.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Mar 7, 2020 10:46:19 GMT
Another race people are overlooking is Kentucky. Like Kansas, the Democrats won the governor race there and McConnell is very unpopular. McConnell ain't losing in any reasonably feasible scenario. Voters don't like him but they also know he has power, and substantial power at that. Small, poor states don't turf people like that of office.
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