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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 15, 2018 1:35:39 GMT
Average of last 10 polls: Union 30.5% SPD 17.8% AfD 15.6% Greens 12.6% Left 9.8% FDP 9.2% SPD are doing well 🤥 I won't post the figures again but the latest version of this has the gap between 2nd and 3rd place down to 1.3 percentage points.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 17, 2018 21:52:53 GMT
"Europe Elects ‏ @europeelects 4h4 hours ago
Germany, Allensbach poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 31% (-2) SPD-S&D: 20% (-1) AfD-EFDD: 15% (+2) GRĂśNE-G/EFA: 12% (+1) LINKE-LEFT: 9% (-1) FDP-ALDE: 9% (-1)
Field work: 01/07/18 – 12/07/18 Sample size: 1,295"
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 19, 2018 12:28:42 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jul 19, 2018 13:04:29 GMT
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 19, 2018 13:16:18 GMT
Interesting to see a stonking FDP performance there.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 19, 2018 18:47:37 GMT
The CSU hissy fit is going over well
(Compared to 2013 election)
CSU - 38% (-10) Green - 16% (+7) SPD - 13% (-8) AFD - 12% (+12) FW - 9% (nc) FDP - 5% (+2) DL - 4% (+2) Other - 3% (-6)
Berlin is Berlin
(Compared to 2016 election)
CDU - 18% (nc) Green - 18% (+3) SPD - 17% (-5) DL - 17% (+1) AFD - 14% (nc) FDP - 7% (nc) DP - 4% (+2) Others - 5% (-2)
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 19, 2018 19:21:33 GMT
The CSU hissy fit is going over well (Compared to 2013 election) CSU - 38% (-10) Green - 16% (+7) SPD - 13% (-8) AFD - 12% (+12) FW - 9% (nc) FDP - 5% (+2) DL - 4% (+2) Other - 3% (-6) Berlin is Berlin (Compared to 2016 election) CDU - 18% (nc) Green - 18% (+3) SPD - 17% (-5) DL - 17% (+1) AFD - 14% (nc) FDP - 7% (nc) DP - 4% (+2) Others - 5% (-2) At first glance Berlin looks close to ungovernable with at least 82% opposing each party.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 19, 2018 19:44:01 GMT
CDU - 18% (nc) Green - 18% (+3) SPD - 17% (-5) DL - 17% (+1) AFD - 14% (nc) FDP - 7% (nc) DP - 4% (+2) Others - 5% (-2) At first glance Berlin looks close to ungovernable with at least 82% opposing each party. 52% for the governing SPD, Green and Die Linke government is only 1% down from 2016 and ends up 55/57% of seats once 5% threshold applied. Die Linke could become the largest party which would prove problematic (state president and leading the agenda is too much for many SPD and Green politicians/voters). and this is the only coalition possible (Greens are very much left wing in Berlin so won't work with CDU/FDP and CDU won't work with Die Linke).
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mboy
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Listen. Think. Speak.
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Post by mboy on Jul 19, 2018 19:57:58 GMT
It's a 5-horse race!
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 19, 2018 20:19:18 GMT
All 5-Parties can't win here.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 19, 2018 20:21:06 GMT
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 19, 2018 21:46:00 GMT
Thd AFD can't win here! Vote Green to stop Merkel!
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Aug 9, 2018 15:45:21 GMT
INSA poll (caveat that they usually have AFD and DL higher than other pollsters and SPD, Greens and FDP lower)
Decided voters: CDU/CSU - 21% AFD - 13% SPD - 11% Greens - 7% DL - 7% FDP - 5%
Current support: CDU-CSU - 30% SPD - 17% AFD - 17% Greens - 13% DL - 11% FDP - 9%
Maximum potential: CDU-CSU - 42% SPD - 38% DL - 24% FDP - 24% AFD - 22% Greens - 22%
In sum, the AFD have a high floor and a low ceiling (not a shock). The SPD could fall to 3rd (11%!) on only their core vote while at the same time could reach almost 40% at their best. The other parties could all gain a lot of votes in the right circumstances.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 27, 2018 17:12:03 GMT
The district Birkenfeld (80.000) in RhinelandPalatine elected yesterday its president. Despite being rather rural - the southern part was once part of SachsenCoburgGotha, by the way - SPD held that position 1946-2011 (the Lantag-seat still belongs to them, 2016 FirstVotes 38.7:29.0). In late 2010 the SPD-incumbent received 42.9, GREENS 11.8, CDU 45.3. Somehow the CDU-candidate succeeded in the RunOff (63.3%!). This time he got 59.25%, SPD 22.52%, FreeList 11.60%, Indep. 6.63% (TurnOut 29.29% [2010: 31.3%]).
So certainly a RecordLow for SPD, but perhaps not caused by federal politics.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Aug 28, 2018 11:26:54 GMT
Apropos DistrictPresidents: Their shares have been remarkably stable, different to FPTP-Britain&USA: ~2010-Sept.2016-Aug.2018: 402-401-401 districts totally 202-194-205 CDU/CSU 134-136-124 SPD 060-060-060 Ind., WählerGem. (=Res.Assoc.), SSW 003-008-007 LEFT 002-004-003 GREENS 001-000-002 FDP How many Germans are ruled by the cities' GrandMayors (or Land-DistrictPresidents) of which party (blue=FDP)?:
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2018 18:10:49 GMT
Potsdam had today the first round of the mayoral election. Result (1 precinct missing):
52.5% Participation
32.2% SPD 19.1% LEFT 17.3% CDU 11.4% The Others 11.1% AfD 08.9% GREENS
Results since 1990 (always SPD first, LEFT second, CDU third):
1993a: 45.3 : 29.5 : 11.4 1993b: 54.9 : 45.1
1998: 63.5 : 24.5 : 9.1 (Platzeck-show)
2002a: 45.4 : 31.2 : 15.5 2002b: 50.1 : 49.9
2010a: 41.7 : 33.1 : 10.5 (Part.: 46) 2010b: 60.8 : 39.2 (Participation: 42)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2018 19:01:35 GMT
At a closer look CDU&FDP have always had 9-18%, this time the upper end - and additionally 11% for the AfD.
2 trends: - Berlin-SubUrbers moving Potsdam (and Brandenburg in general) towards MidRight - AfD gaining support from CDU, SPD and LEFT
"TheOthers" are left-alternative sects opposing the restoration of the historic CityCentre aso., led by an "asocial" once imprisoned by the StaSi.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Sept 23, 2018 20:10:59 GMT
At a closer look CDU&FDP have always had 9-18%, this time the upper end - and additionally 11% for the AfD. 2 trends: - Berlin-SubUrbers moving Potsdam (and Brandenburg in general) towards MidRight - AfD gaining support from CDU, SPD and LEFT "TheOthers" are left-alternative sects opposing the restoration of the historic CityCentre aso., led by an "asocial" once imprisoned by the StaSi. A friend of mine raves about Potsdam, I personally don't know the East well at all (although I was taught German by a woman from Gera!). My Teutonic tastes are distinctly Rhenish and Austrian, even though I speak German with a Swiss accent.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Sept 23, 2018 21:32:27 GMT
At a closer look CDU&FDP have always had 9-18%, this time the upper end - and additionally 11% for the AfD. 2 trends: - Berlin-SubUrbers moving Potsdam (and Brandenburg in general) towards MidRight - AfD gaining support from CDU, SPD and LEFT "TheOthers" are left-alternative sects opposing the restoration of the historic CityCentre aso., led by an "asocial" once imprisoned by the StaSi. A friend of mine raves about Potsdam, I personally don't know the East well at all (although I was taught German by a woman from Gera!). My Teutonic tastes are distinctly Rhenish and Austrian, even though I speak German with a Swiss accent. Yes, oldprussian Potsdam is trendy (to a certain extent): After Munich Potsdam has the highest increasing in population of all german cities (2005-2015: +12.6%). But it's only Berlin-leavers, of course. H.v.KEYSERLING wrote, that only His BalticGerman, Rhenish and Austrian could be presented abroad (the 2 most gifted german tribes - Swabians and [Upper]Saxons/Thuringians - having the worst dialects and being most underrated people). In the 1990ies i was in touch with a woman from Russia, who had learnt German (or rather: Alemannic&Swabian) in Liechtenstein&TĂĽbingen - an astonishing combination! (And once she said: "Strange - all german-speakers i know are either Swabians or Austrians or Bavarians or Prussians - only you are nothing.")
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Oct 14, 2018 18:05:44 GMT
Don't say, that SPD cannot win elections any longer: In archprussian Potsdam its candidate received 55.3% against the LEFT-opponent (participation: 37.8%).
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