Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 8, 2018 9:28:26 GMT
Given the current "crisis" the polling numbers for CDU/CSU are remarkably resilient.
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Jul 8, 2018 9:34:49 GMT
Given the current "crisis" the polling numbers for CDU/CSU are remarkably resilient. While the SPD numbers are heading down the plughole and AfD rise to become the official opposition.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 8, 2018 12:03:41 GMT
Given the current "crisis" the polling numbers for CDU/CSU are remarkably resilient. You've got to wonder how much more they can lose while Merkel is leader. The SPD have nothing distinctive to say and the FDP lost their momentum (and then some) after the coalition talks broke down. I doubt the Greens are taking much either. That's leaves the AFD who have already taken a good chunk of votes and don't seem to have taken much more since the election. The latter's ceiling is said to be 20%, which would explain why the Union vote seems pretty resilient at just north of 30%.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 8, 2018 12:28:01 GMT
For balance:
Civey CDU/CSU - 30% (-1) SPD - 18% AFD - 15% (-1) Greens - 13% (+1) DL - 10% FDP - 9%
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2018 14:26:04 GMT
Germany becomes ungovernable on those numbers. If they were repeated at an election, the constructive vote of confidence will face its greatest test yet.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 8, 2018 14:39:20 GMT
Merkel has to go before she drags down all the mainstream parties with her and wrecks German politics.
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Jul 8, 2018 14:43:17 GMT
Merkel has to go before she drags down all the mainstream parties with her and wrecks German politics. Well I can see why you may think that but despite what many outside of the country think she still seems to retain a fairly high level of support in Germany.
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Post by BossMan on Jul 8, 2018 14:53:06 GMT
Merkel has to go before she drags down all the mainstream parties with her and wrecks German politics. Well I can see why you may think that but despite what many outside of the country think she still seems to retain a fairly high level of support in Germany. keine bessere Wahl. I expect turnout to fall again next time and she may have to drag in the Greens to feed off, she may not, 47-8% should produce a Union/SPD majority once the others are excluded.
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jamie
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Post by jamie on Jul 8, 2018 16:14:47 GMT
Merkel has to go before she drags down all the mainstream parties with her and wrecks German politics. Depends who replaces her. I can't see someone like Jens Spahn leading a grand coalition (and the SPD don't even want to be in grand coalition to begin with), but numerically that would be the only 'realistic' game in town.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 8, 2018 16:48:28 GMT
Merkel has to go before she drags down all the mainstream parties with her and wrecks German politics. Depends who replaces her. I can't see someone like Jens Spahn leading a grand coalition (and the SPD don't even want to be in grand coalition to begin with), but numerically that would be the only 'realistic' game in town. Jens Spahn leading a government would be grimly hilarious.
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Post by markgoodair on Jul 10, 2018 11:31:14 GMT
Wondering around Munich yesterday there were election posters up for the LKR which apparently are the Liberal Conservative Reformer party.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 10, 2018 12:23:58 GMT
Wondering around Munich yesterday there were election posters up for the LKR which apparently are the Liberal Conservative Reformer party. Bernd Lucke's AfD splinter- they had to change their name from ALFA because it was already taken by a pro-life activist group!
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 10, 2018 22:28:38 GMT
Average of last 10 polls:
Union 30.5% SPD 17.8% AfD 15.6% Greens 12.6% Left 9.8% FDP 9.2%
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 11, 2018 8:55:39 GMT
Average of last 10 polls: Union 30.5% SPD 17.8% AfD 15.6% Greens 12.6% Left 9.8% FDP 9.2% SPD are doing well 🤥
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 11, 2018 10:14:24 GMT
About as well as many of us predicted they would if they went into a GroKo again. Their (well, Schulz's) initial instinct post-election to reject it was quite correct.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 11, 2018 21:01:28 GMT
About as well as many of us predicted they would if they went into a GroKo again. Their (well, Schulz's) initial instinct post-election to reject it was quite correct. Christ knows what would have emerged as a result. The SPD are as much a part of the problems of the last government, and many would have them pretend that it was all the CDU's doing/a bigger boy did it and ran away.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 12, 2018 17:38:20 GMT
"Europe Elects @europeelects
Germany, GMS poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 30% (-4) SPD-S&D: 17% (+1) AfD-EFDD: 17% (+3) GRÜNE-G/EFA: 12% LINKE-LEFT: 10% FDP-ALDE: 9%
Field work: 5/07/18 – 11/07/18 Sample size: 1,006"
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 13, 2018 9:44:39 GMT
About as well as many of us predicted they would if they went into a GroKo again. Their (well, Schulz's) initial instinct post-election to reject it was quite correct. Christ knows what would have emerged as a result Germans getting used to the idea of a minority government? Persisting with a coalition this time round might only be delaying the inevitable there.
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mboy
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Post by mboy on Jul 13, 2018 9:50:14 GMT
Persisting with Merkel might only be delaying the inevitable there.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 13, 2018 14:33:42 GMT
Christ knows what would have emerged as a result Germans getting used to the idea of a minority government? Persisting with a coalition this time round might only be delaying the inevitable there. Germans are pretty used to the idea, that's their fear!
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