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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 30, 2018 7:18:04 GMT
It had an FDP Oberburgermeister from 1990 to, umm, 2006? I missed that entirely. I'm always surprised by a FDP victory out East.
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Post by BossMan on Apr 30, 2018 17:54:37 GMT
It had an FDP Oberburgermeister from 1990 to, umm, 2006? I missed that entirely. I'm always surprised by a FDP victory out East. Uwe Lühr won a Direktmandat in 1990 in Halle (Saale), which is always the result that stuns me.
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Apr 30, 2018 18:02:27 GMT
I missed that entirely. I'm always surprised by a FDP victory out East. Uwe Lühr won a Direktmandat in 1990 in Halle (Saale), which is always the result that stuns me. The FDP winning a Direktmandat anywhere in the past 50 years should always be a result that stuns!
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Post by mrpastelito on Apr 30, 2018 19:01:54 GMT
I missed that entirely. I'm always surprised by a FDP victory out East. Uwe Lühr won a Direktmandat in 1990 in Halle (Saale), which is always the result that stuns me. Due to Genscher's popularity I think - he was born in Halle.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 13:55:15 GMT
Several local elections take place today:
- SchleswigHolstein: all 15 districts (note, that the 11 rural CouncilLeaders ["LandRäte"] are elected by the councils there)
- Brandenburg: RunOffs
- Freiburg/Breisgau: RunOff for mayor (Germany's first GREEN-mayor will very likely lose to the more left SPD-candidate)
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 16:25:08 GMT
SchleswigHolstein reported for 17.30 a slightly higher TurnOut (44% instead of 42% in 2013). Last time CDU was far in front of SPD (39:30), but the GREENS were due to Fukushima very strong (13%). So both camps - SPD&GREENS and CDU&FDP - stood equally at ~43%, producing together with SSW (=Danes) and THE LEFT a majority for the left.
An OpinionPoll for the region (by InfratestDimap) had AfD stagnating at 6%, CDU slightly stronger (34), FDP a little bit weaker, SPD down 5%, GREENS up 5% (despite their coalition with CDU&FDP). SPD has the problem to be led by Stegner, who is perceived as very unsympathic (his "AntiFacism" is said to be AfD's best weapon...), but is vocally left-left, so it's difficult to replace him in the SPD.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 16:40:32 GMT
In a Brandenburg-district AfD achieved against a CDU-man - with 59/200 counted - impressive 41% (33% TurnOut).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 17:16:21 GMT
Freiburg had in the RunOff the choice between 1 unimportant Indy and 3 lefties. The OutCome:
44% SPD 31% GREENS (incumbent) 24% GreenAlternative (WaterMelons) 01% Independent
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 17:48:43 GMT
In Brandenburg's 4 districts 2 were won by CDU, 2 by SPD (but the latter didn't reach the France-like 15% of the electorate due to TurnOuts around 30%. As a consequence the local parliaments will have to decide.)
SpreeNeisse: 39.4 part.; CDU 60.82, AfD 39.18 Uckermark: 25.7 part.; CDU 67.6, SPD 32.4 (lost by SPD) OstprignitzRuppin: 24.6 part.; SPD 59, CDU 41 Barnim: 18.7 (!) part.; SPD ~61% (2 precincts missing)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 18:17:49 GMT
First trends show in SchleswigHolstein...
- big gains for AfD (inevitably, as they are new; 5%-6%) - small gains for FDP and GREENS (2%-3%) - small losses for CDU (2%-3%) - big losses for SPD (5%-6%)
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 19:08:44 GMT
In SchleswigHolstein InfratestDimap have as a "trend" (=projection of the final outcome?):
36.0 -2.9 CDU 22.7 -7.1 SPD 15.5 +1.8 GREENS 06.6 +1.6 FDP 05.0 *5.0 AfD 03.9 +1.4 LEFT 02.3 -0.6 SSW (=Danes) 06.3 +1.5 others
All in all the left parties have lost their advantage (and neither SSW nor the present GREENS are fully left, of course).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 19:19:57 GMT
Flensburg - a city "DevilWincarnate" might be especially interested in - is finished, with a "Dutch" result:
19.4 - 2.7 CDU 18.8 +6.3 GREENS 18.2 - 2.5 SPD 17.6 - 1.4 SSW 10.8 - 7.1 WählerGemeinschaft (small local party) 07.7 +3.6 FDP 07.5 +3.8 LEFT
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 20:05:35 GMT
In Freiburg the GREENS-incumbent remained in front only in EastEnd, that's the wealthy fringes in the very east of the city. The GreenAlternative in the outerInnerCity, that's the areas around the historic CityCentre.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 6, 2018 21:56:45 GMT
SchleswigHolstein has a "provisional official final result".
47.1 +0.4 Participation
35.1 -3.8 CDU 23.3 -6.5 SPD 16.5 +2.8 GREENS 06.7 +1.7 FDP 05.5 *5.5 AfD 03.9 +1.4 LEFT 02.3 -0.6 SSW 06.7 -1.5 others
Except the cities of Kiel and Lübeck CDU is everywhere ahead. In some rural districts (especially in the north, where SSW is strong) a left majority seems viable.
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 20, 2018 9:28:53 GMT
The city of Speyer (Palatine) will elect its mayor. 2010 the CDU-candidate won narrowly (50.??%). This time he will run again, challenged by SPD, GREENS and an Independent.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 20, 2018 16:22:14 GMT
The city of Speyer (Palatine) will elect its mayor. 2010 the CDU-candidate won narrowly (50.??%). This time he will run again, challenged by SPD, GREENS and an Independent. Will take place next SunDay.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on May 27, 2018 17:26:43 GMT
Mayor of Speyer (Palatine):
42.9 CDU (inc.) 42.0 SPD 10.5 GREENS 04.6 AfD
46.9 Participation
On paper SPD should have good chances to win this city with its great past back (mayors 1949-1995 SPD, since then CDU).
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 10, 2018 16:14:54 GMT
Mayor of Speyer (Palatine): 42.9 CDU (inc.) 42.0 SPD 10.5 GREENS 04.6 AfD 46.9 Participation On paper SPD should have good chances to win this city with its great past back (mayors 1949-1995 SPD, since then CDU). The RunOff was today. 7/52 is counted and the SPD-contender stands at 58%.
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Georg Ebner
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 10, 2018 17:21:16 GMT
Speyer:
SPD: 52.4%
Participation: 44.5%
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Post by Georg Ebner on Jun 12, 2018 3:55:41 GMT
The SPD presented a devastating report of 5 experts (1 "Spiegel"-journalist; 1 PR-profi, who had ruled out to participate in a "Chaos-Kampa" aso.) on its campaign 2017: www.spd.de/fileadmin/Dokumente/Sonstiges/Evaluierung_SPD_BTW2017.pdfNot sure, that You can open it with this link. The title should be googleable: "Aus Fehlern lernen" The authors are totally clueless, though. (1st proposal: "no longer different factions [SeeheimerKreis, Netzwerk,...] within the party"...) Ms.Nahles' - who had herself run the party-HQs for years - only (openly) declared intention is to nominate the Chancellor-candidate earlier next time. Their own polls - conducted by an (to me) unknown company ("PollyFix") - show, that the election was - as in Austria - dominated (or better: overshadowed) by the MassImmigration (most important topic for 44% of all, 38% of SPD-voters). My advice would be roughly the plan of Gabriel: Changing PartyStructures or persons or CampaignStyles, waiting for Merkel's departure might help short term, but the crisis of the SD-parties worldwide goes far deeper. In order to gain a left majority somewhen they'd have to leave the academic proMultiCultis to GREENS/LEFT, play softly hard ("firm hand") on the Immigration-issue (when it is on the table), but try to focus naturally as much as possible on social affairs (pensions/family/health/labour). Thus attracting mainly public/private employees (middle/lower MiddleClass).
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